It was a chaotic day in the Giro once again as yet another breakaway succeeded. This time it was formed after a neutralization of the race after a big crash that saw Emanuel Buchmann as one of the riders to abandon, the first rider to attack was the first to get to the line, Victor Campenaerts was one of three Qhubeka riders in the breakaway and was part of an early attack in the final circuit, wisely antecipating the climbs and, together with Oscar Riesebeek built the decisive gap, who he beat later on in a sprint. Nikias Arndt finished third in the chasing group, as for the peloton it arrived compact.
Positive: Qhubeka have gotten 3 wins in 5 days and that's quite an acomplishment!
Negative: Buchmann is a big loss for Bora and the race, loosing yet another Grand Tour because of a crash, just when he had came into form.
The Route
The queen stage! Call it what you want, this for me is the most important stage of the race, it's the grand Dolomites stage for the year and as always, there will be everything! The race starts out with a brutal climb and then goes up to 3 of the most iconic Italian passes, all of them above 2000 meters of altitude, which will be the main part of the 5700 meters of climbing the peloton will face.
The day has 10 kilometers of flat roads before starting out the first ascent of the day which is La Crosetta, 11.6Km at a constant 7%. A breakaway will surely be set here, full of quality climbers that will be looking for the KOM classification and a big stage win.
The trio of brutal ascents begins with the Passo Fedaia. 84 kilometers to go sees the summit of this ascent of two halves, the first 8.6Km are gentle and with some flat sections, the last 5.4 are at 11% and feature 18% as a max gradient.
The second of them is the Cima Coppi of the race with 2239 meters of altitude, Passo Pordoi. A constant 7% for 11.8Km is a very difficult task at such altitude, I feel this climb won't be attacked but will see the peloton shredded with the challenge put in front of them, one that finishes with 59 kilometers to go.
The final climb of the day is the Passo Giau. This is where the attacks will come, but don't be mistaken this is a climb that can be paced from end to end, it's brutal, steep, just by riding a strong pace the race can be smashed to bits. Those who have a bad day will loose minute, the climb summits with 17.5 kilometers to go at 2233 meters of altitude and sees a very fast descent into Cortina d'Ampezzo where the finish line is.
The riders will descend all the way into the final kilometer, where they'll go up an old cobblestoned road with incredible views to the mountains.
The Weather
As if the stage wasn't already brutal, the forecast predicts rain, that should get stronger as the day goes by. It will be gruesome, period. Alongside this, there is also forecast of some very strong gusts up to 55Km/h from the southeast, the constant wind shouldn't be as strong, a tailwind early in the day generally, and a crosswind up all the climb actually.
The Favourites
The big names for this stage are the GC contenders. There have been tons of breakaway wins and although it may happen again tomorrow, the GC riders will once again be taken to the limit and with the amount of climbing we'll have you need very strong climbers in the break with great legs and some luck in order to stay ahead of the big guns. Egan Bernal has been so far dominant, with a lot of climbing and altitude tomorrow, he will likely remain in the same scenario if all goes normal, having had 0 flaws so far in the race and having a team functioning perfectly around him. No-one will want to help Ineos tomorrow though, they will be put under pressure, but I feel the presence of Daniel Martinez will help massively, wether to cover moves, or to work very late on the stage, Bernal should be protected at all times.
I think the real pressure will come on the first climb, but none of the real favourites will likely be on the move, as from the top until Fedaia there is a really long way and teams can organize and chase them back. I think, if the weather doesn't have a major impact on the stage, that they will wait for the Passo Giau. A steep constant climb, I reckon Simon Yates will be on his field, he attacked on the Zoncolan and he will surely do so again, the damage it'll have is a different question, but he's eyeing GC victory. Everyone else go by feel, it's not a stage and a climb where you can go to the red and recover, Alexander Vlasov and Hugh Carthy will hope for a better day than in Zoncolan and be able to attack, I think both will be suited but on the road it can be completely different, on the defensive side will be Damiano Caruso who will like the altitude, it's a perfect stage for him and he can stay in his third place if nothing unusual happens. As for Remco Evenepoel, I think he'll do his race as he has, alongside Giulio Ciccone I expect them to be there but struggle a bit when the attacks come.
The Top10 will be put under pressure though very likely, there are three riders in Daniel Martin, João Almeida and Davide Formolo who have nothing to loose, will have freedom to attack and have the legs to make damage, and break back into the Top10, it's their best chance to do so. Martin and Almeida specially, I expect to see them on the attack and force a strong group in the first climb, not putting pressure on Bernal but perhaps on some Top10 riders.
But there are plenty other contenders don't get me wrong. Bora lost their leader today, Felix Grossschartner and Matteo Fabbro will surely be on the attack tomorrow as these are the kind of stages where they can still have an impact on the race. There are other riders who would initially be in that role but shoud have freedom now like DSM's Michael Storer and Chris Hamilton, Koen Bouwman and Antonio Pedrero.
You have the fight for the KOM jersey, it's a very - perhaps the most - important day for that classification, you can count of Bouchard and Mollema to be there as they must if they want to win this one, perhaps Lorenzo Fortunato will join too after his Zoncolan ride proppeled him into the first places.
Not only in Mollema will Trek have cards to play though, Vincenzo Nibali has dropped out of GC contention, I'm always unsure how his legs will be but one thing I do know and that is that this stage is perfect for him too, although concerns of a possible injury after crashing today but doubts on that. Not only him but Gianluca Brambilla can also play an important part. We can see some tactical positioning of teammates in front, perhaps give them freedom for riders like Pello Bilbao or Mikel Nieve who on paper are good riders for such a colossal stage, you may also see some big climbers like Harm Vanhoucke, Jan Hirt or the Groupama duo Rudy Molard and Sebastian Reichenbach, that is of course if the latter lucks out and doesn't find wet descents.
Prediction Time
⭐ Vlasov, Carthy, Caruso, Martinez, Formolo, Storer, Bouwman, Fortunato, Bilbao, Molard, Nibali
I think tomorrow João Almeida will finally take advantage of the green card he's surely gotten over this past week and go on the offense on the first climb, get in a strong breakaway and then be the strongest of the group, jumping back in the Top10 as Bernal and Yates fight behind.
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