The first day in the Alps proved to be a big turn of events in Piancavallo. The stage was paced out mostly by Sunweb who took up the charges and then went into the final climb full gas and in an incredible display of power completely decimated the peloton without barely even attacking. The winner of the stage was Tao Hart who sprinted away from Wilco Kelderman and Jai Hindley in the final few meters, the trio went solo still halfway up the climb with Hindley pacing which he did until the final meters leaving plenty GC candidates in trouble very early on. João Almeida fought a great battle to remain in pink whilst riders like Nibali and Fuglsang lost 1:36, and Pozzovivo lost 1:54, still limiting his losses after being dropped very early on. Almeida now leads Kelderman by 15 seconds and Hindley by 2:56.
Positive: Sunweb were scary strong today and they will continue to pile on the pressure as it wasn't just Hindley and Kelderman that looked to be flying. Almeida in the end won a minute over some of his main rivals so this ended up still a great day for him, and managing to keep pink aswell. Hart also with a magnificent performance climbing to 4th overall, Deceuninck still showing very good team depth and Visconti jumping into the KOM lead.
Negative: Nibali will have the third week but has lost a significant amount of time today. It's not looking good for a third overall win for the Italian who has also lost Brambilla today. Pozzovivo also had a bad day, McNulty also showed fragility and fell out of the Top10 again.
The Route
The final week of racing begins with such a great stage in my opinion. Usually the hilly stages and traps come early in the race but the Giro has taken a different approach and have put an explosive and tricky stage in the final week and also right after the rest day.
A lot can happen here, firstly it can either be a breakaway or GC day, but either ways there can be important moves in the final circuit that is ridden three times with a climb to the Monte di Ragogna, a 3Km ascent at 9% before a short but steep finish in San Daniele del Friuli. This is just a nasty climb, the gradients are constly brutal with no restbite and going through it 3 times will be a difficult task no matter how strong one is. If this stage will play out for the GC we have to wait, but the truth is there is definetely road for it.
And this finish, damn what is this finish? The stage isn't all about that climb, this final kilometer, repeated three times is quite brutal with a 20% ramp in there, a slight descent and another hard slog into the finish. Even if no attacks come on this day this final kilometer is hard enough to see some GC riders loose some seconds.
The Weather
Very soothing and controled, unlike what's expected of the stage.
The Favourites
A hard hard day, first of all coming right after a rest day it's a day of indecision, of not knowing quite how you are, but some of the riders suffering may have had a day to get their legs back at least for a day. With these many steep climbs there can surely be a raid, it's a harsh circuit where the climbs are hard enough to make gaps, it's sharp anaerobic efforts that should put some of the less explosive climbers in difficulty.
GC moves will for sure happen, there are brutal days ahead but this stage must've been on the head of some riders for the last two weeks and one should be Jakob Fuglsang. Although he hasn't had a good second week he looked really good in the opening week and explosive, this kind of climb is ideal for him and although Astana have little firepower to help him he will surely try something or at least try to follow the decisive moves. On the Roccaraso finish he finished in front alongside two riders, two riders who happened to brutalize Piancavallo who are Jai Hindley and Wilco Kelderman. Sunweb looked like the strongest team, they are coming to this final week with ambitions of winning the race, Kelderman can go into pink and Hindley is on the podium, for sure something will come out as the duo have looked very good in the explosive efforts so far and they have a chance to distance Nibali which should be one of the riders who will want to race more conservatively.
True that maybe Pozzovivo can try something but his performance in Piancavallo must've put him in a position he wasn't expecting, Tao Hart has looked quite good in the second week and thus is another name to consider, looking to get onto the podium, also the Bora duo could enjoy these steeper climbs, Patrick Konrad is quite a punchy rider suited for this stage, as for Majka he'll be thereabouts but in his best day can also do very well. Riding conservatively I expect Nibali, he will have to attack this final week but not yet as tomorrow is too sharp for him, the altitude and mountain slogs will suit him better, also Deceuninck will prove a good ally for him as they want to keep everything under control, Masnada and Knox are looking very good and Mikkel Honoré can also play a big role in controling the peloton. Bilbao also should try to keep it more steady and not loose contact with the main favourites. McNulty has suffered on the longer climbs but looked quite good in the steeper, no way of knowing how he'll do, but maybe could surprise.
As for breakaway hopes, they are somewhat good I won't lie. Guerreiro and EF looked to save themselves last stage, with a KOM tilt to come in the next few days I think they'll wait, but lots more rider have a good opportunity to take a massive stage win. These include well, lots of names I've already mentioned often but have neither gotten a win or not even being present in a breakaway. Just start in the 15th place and most riders will be contender for tomorrow with Paret-Peintre, Castroviejo and Fabbro perhaps the biggest names there on the beggining. Then Attila Valter for around the 5th time (and certainly not the last!), Ben O'Connor, Diego Ulissi/Valerio Conti, Giovanni Visconti, Domen Novak. Well the way this Giro is going there's a chance none of these riders even make it in front to be honest, unpredictability has marked this race (which makes it exciting though) so tomorrow really does come as a roulette. And of course with all this probably EF do go on to win the stage.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kangert, Pozzovivo, Konrad, Majka, Valter, Ulissi, Conti, O'Connor, Visconti
My call is for Matteo Fabbro to win from a breakaway. In all honesty I think and hope the GC riders have a big swing at each other, but the way the race has been ridden I've understood the logic thing doesn't quite happen, hence breakaway day. The Bora rider has looked very strong from the start of the race, his lightweight build is ideal for the steep climbs and he's been agressive, Bora don't really need anyone to be with Majka and Konrad so all those reasons combined lead me to think the Italian will take it.
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