The breakaway has once again took a win and another big surprise emerged today as within a strong group of climbers, EOLO's Lorenzo Fortunato stood out as the strongest climber on the mythical Zoncolan as he distanced Jan Tratnik in the final kilometers, with Alessandro Covi finishing third. In the GC fight Astana blew up the race in the technical descent but didn't capitalize on all their work, Ineos ruled the final climb and Bernal answered Simon Yates' attack, then making his own move in the final minutes to gain some more seconds on the Brit.
Positive: Bernal solidifying his lead with another very strong performance, Yates also finally showing his true legs, distancing everyone but Bernal easily. Fortunato took a brilliant win that made EOLO's race, Caruso keeping his consistency and Ciccone recovering from a less positive second week so far.
Negative: Astana's DS put the team at work, burnt their riders not only not to gain anything, but to see the Russian have a bad day and loose quite a bit of time. Evenepoel and Foss also had a rough time on the Zoncolan, as for Nibali who looked on the rise he fell out of GC contention sadly. Bennett and Mollema also wasted what was on paper a golden opportunity for a stage win.
The Route
Stage 15 is one of the final chances for the sprinters and the rouleurs as the final block of mountain aproaches. Here we'll have a stage through the Friuli region aswell as some sections raced in Slovenia, just enough to call this the "Slovenian stage". The riders have an interesting day ahead of them, as this would be on paper a day suited for a breakaway but with the ambitions of many fast men it should be brought back, but even with that situation we may see late attacks succeed. It's a tricky stage.
It starts by the Adriatic at sea level in Grado before moving inland, where the riders will do 2 laps, and climb 3 times the...
Gornje Cerovo hilltop. Not a big climb but a nasty one for those who don't like riding the big ring. We see it being ridden with 79.5, 48 and 16.5Km to go. The 15% section is quite hard, if the climb is pushed hard there will be lots of riders dropped, there's a fast run-into Goriza afterwards so it's game over if you don't have the legs here.
The day doesn't end there though, as just before the finish there is a 600 meter-long ascent at 8%, reaching 12% which will be attacked hard. This climb is just pure hell for the sprinters, the peloton will be lined out and even if the attacks are blocked by the fast men they will be left without a team or with very little support. Both attacks on the climb or right after will be hard to chase down because there are only a few minutes left of racing, in roads that aren't great for an organized chase. The peloton enters Slovenia for this little climb and then returns to Italy.
There's a fast descent and inside Goriza there's a little cobblestone sector, not brutal cobblestones but not smooth pavement, before turning right into the finish line where the riders will actually have cobblestones in the last 50 meters over to the finish line.
The Weather
To put it in a polite way, it's classic British weather. Will be windy with southern strong gusts that will be dangerous in the exposed start roads, will also help breakaways until the Slovenian loops. Towards the end the wind will come from the east, favourable for late attacks, but what will really matter is the rain which should be present from the start, but for sure will not be absent in the final dangerous kilometers.
The Favourites
It has everything to be an uncontrolled stage. The accumulate isn't that big, the riders won't find a big amount of rolling roads and hilltops but within the circuit and in the final kilometers there will be a lot of traps, and with the wind and rain added into the mix it won't be easy to control, specially if anyone at all gets a gap in the last couple kilometers.
Some riders you're more likely to see succeed only if they're in a breakaway, it's not a hard stage so rouleurs like Remi Cavagna, Thomas de Gendt, Victor Campenaerts are certainly contenders and dangerous riders for such a route, Jan Tratnik too will surely have intentions despite burning himself today. Puncheurs like Natnael Tesfatsion, Davide Villella, Matteo Jorgenson, Nicholas Roche and Gianluca Brambilla can also succeed from a breakaway.
Others can succeed from a breakaway if it comes to that but even in a peloton scenario they will be dangerous men, with attacks in the final climb or even in that kicker before the line (or inside Gorizia itself) can get a gap and never be caught again. Some will love the rain like the Astana riders Gorka Izagirre, Fabio Felline and Luis Leon Sanchez who have a good opportunity tomorrow, Deceuninck's Mikkel Honoré, but the list also includes CX riders Gianni Vermeersch and Quinten Hermans who will love the punchy finish, EF's Alberto Bettiol and Ruben Guerreiro, UAE's Davide Formolo and Diego Ulissi and, if they opt with that way to go for the stage, Israel's Patrick Bevin can also do really well.
A sprint though is not impossible. A sprint or a finish that will at least be somewhat grouped, there will be some teams looking for that and the stage isn't that hard to control, as long as they can prevent a strong group from going up the road and never give the eventual escapee group a big leash, there will be enough flat roads to reel them back in. Bora should be on the head of affairs, although they've gotten their win with Sagan tomorrow is a stage very well suited for him and will definitely be putting in the work and can encounter allies in Cofidis for example who have Elia Viviani and Simone Consonni who can do quite well tomorrow, Israel if they wake up feeling like working towards Davide Cimolai, and other teams like Bardiani with Filippo Fiorelli, Intermarché with Andrea Pasqualon or even stage winner Andrea Vendrame may be looking for another one. Riders like Stefano Oldani or Nick Schultz can also really benefit from a hard race, as they climb quite well and have a strong sprint.
There are also Giacomo Nizzolo and Fernando Gaviria which, I don't know what to expect as in some days they climb really well, other not, some days they sprint really well others not so it's hard to gauge but they may be looking for another opportunity.
Prediction Time
⭐ Nizzolo, Gaviria, Consonni, Fiorelli, Roche, G.Izagirre, Vermeersch, Hermans, Bettiol, Guerreiro
This will be a very dificult stage to predict. Last year you had a stage similar to this with a very low-quality group to just be given the win, and this year the wins from absolute surprise riders has been quite frequent, I feel tomorrow the same can happen. However I feel also the race will be controlled, and in case of the most predictable scenario which is of a sprint, maybe Davide Cimolai can finally take the win he deserves.
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