Filippo Ganna has won his third stage in this Giro. Starting as the overwhelming favourite again, he smashed the competition once more beating Rohan Dennis and a strong Brandon McNulty in the stage podium. GC wise there were some changes, pink jersey João Almeida has extended his lead over Wilco Kelderman.
Positive: McNulty, Almeida and Kelderman were the big winners of the time-trial. Kelderman is in great position overall now, Almeida has some minutes over most of the main GC guys and McNulty climbed up to 4th place overall. Rafal Majka was also a positive surprise, I expected a very poor TT but he actually climbed from 8th to 6th in the overall. Ineos also taking a 1-2 win in the stage.
Negative: Patrick Konrad and Jai Hindley were the riders loosing the most time within the Top10. It weren't bad bad TT's but a lot of loss there.
The Route
The closure to the final week comes with the arrival of the Alps into the race. They come late but they come strong, the stage has some hard climbs halfway through but the decisive moments should come in the summit finish to Piancavallo, where Tom Dumoulin almost lost the 2017 Giro.
There's three climbs leading up to the final one, the most important one being Forcella di Monte Rest, it's a contant 7% for over 7 kilometers with a little hilltop righ before it. The three climbs summit with 120, 80 and 42 kilometer to go, it adds up to quite a lot of accumulate climbing as it goes up to almost 4500 meters of it here.
The final climb to Piancavallo is a harsh one. There's no warm-up, no gentle gradients, like Alpe d'Huez it's one of those climbs that's meant to be attacked from the base, the first 6.5Km are at above 9%, and from there on it gradually gets a bit more gentle, never going into flat roads but having some false-flat sections near the end of the 14.5Km ascent.
The Weather
Temperatures will be cold but it will be a relatively confortable day weather wise, and wind shouldn't pose much of an issue.
The Favourites
It's the first day in the Alps, exciting time ahead! Breakaway or GC day? I reckon GC day, with the arrival of the high mountains late into the race the pure climbers finally have ground to make difference and with several riders in the first places including leader João Almeida, I reckon most GC contenders will want to eliminate him as soon as possible.
Hence I think some teams will be interested in making it hard tomorrow, it's also a hard day so there is road to cause real damage even before Piancavallo, there are some riders who will want to make for a hard race and cause damage and Jakob Fuglsang should be the main one, Astana have important riders missing but they still have some to make it hard in the final climb, Trek have today lost Ciccone who could be very important for Nibali so I don't think Trek will already put on the hurt in the peloton in any way they can, but NTT will probably seeing how Pozzovivo and the team have ridden in this second week. Bora can also pull something off I reckon, with Rafal Majka and Patrick Konrad looking to go up on the GC I expect them to be close to the front and likely have Matteo Fabro play a crucial role in the ramping up of the pace.
Riding more conservatively though obviously expect Deceuninck at first, João Almeida prefers to climb at pace, the climb is very constant and Almeida has a strong team with him at the moment, Masnada and Knox will be very important to ensure there is a group moving at a constant pace and some more riders can take advantage of this safety net to their strategy. There's Sunweb, first thought would be Sunweb wants to attack to take pink but honestly I think they should remain somewhat conservative, I think Kelderman won't struggle to go over Almeida in the third week and the team can save the trouble of going into pink and also save Jai Hindley as a very good option GC wise and also white jersey wise, who has been surprising in the race so far. Pello Bilbao and Brandon McNulty will probably wait and go according to feel, they are both already in brilliant overall places and I reckon they'd want to keep it, both have some support but don't have the responsability to work. Riders like Tao Hart and Antonio Pedrero can do well with the big guns I wouldn't be surprised, but I think in the final week they will make their big GC tilt if they have the legs for it, not tomorrow. Tomorrow is more of a testing day I think.
Regarding breakaway chances it's quite possible actually but not easy to guess who can be there. Some riders targeting the KOM classification are my first guess, some climbers that don't have much responsability to help a GC leader are the other, I think strategical placement of teammates in front won't happen much because there's no real advantage tomorrow, and also I think lots of riders will be testing themselves ahead of the final week. So I'd name Ruben Guerreiro and Tanel Kangert of EF as my favourites if a group does go ahead and win, nothing but confidence is being given from them in my eye this week, Ilnur Zakarin and Atilla Valter are also good options representing CCC, both strong climbers, Thomas de Gendt will also be on the lookout but yeah I doubt this is a good stage for him, Nicolas Edet and Dario Cataldo are also very good options for a win in a break, have the freedom and the legs.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bilbao, McNulty, Almeida, Hindley, Konrad, Valter, Cataldo, de Gendt
My call for the win is on Nicolas Edet. I think GC day is likely, but also breakaway win in mountain stages as become quite normal, there's strong climbers to get in front and no set team to put out a brutal pace, so going in front with a rider who's in great form and can climb very very well.
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