Giacomo Nizzolo took a very long time to get his first Giro stage win but today was the day. In what was a calm day throughout the flat roads we've seen some attempts to disrupt the organized peloton but they didn't work, a fast sprint is what happened in Verona where Edoardo Affini almost surprised the peloton but was overtaken close to the line by Nizzolo. Peter Sagan finished third and the GC remained the same.
Positive: Nizzolo getting a much deserved win, Sagan solidifying his points classification.
Negative: Honestly my subscription group was all on Affini at 600 (or more) yesterday so it was rather painful to witness him come second. As for the stage, expected Viviani and Groenewegen to take part in the stage discussion, they failed to do so.
The Route
Zoncolan. It's not an easy stage but there's a flat start, the Forcella Monte Rest with 58 kilometers to go and a false flat run-up to Sutrio where the riders will begin what is the climax of the stage.
The riders won't be in Ovaro this time, but instead will do the ascent via the west side which is much longer with 14.1 kilometers in lenght and a slightly lower average gradient with 8.5% but it's to me a climb split into two sections. The first 11Kms average around 7% which is in itself a quite decent ascent, there will be a little rest section before the final 3.5Km which average 12.1%. But that final kilometer, after such a nasty climb, is just horrific. Almost up to the finish there are 500 meters at 20% topping up at a water-tearing 27%. No words are needed, it's an insane finale, gaps will be big, and everyone will go to the absolute limit here.
The Weather
The rain will be back even outside of the Appennines. It won't be pretty, luckily there isn't any big descent but the one after Forcella Monte Rest is very technical and it can be quite dangerous, specially so close to the finish. The final ascent should be in the rain, in some gradients it can become a problem for those looking for traction, but nothing meaningful.
The Favourites
This will be a long effort. The stage isn't overall hard, the dangerous descent can cause splits but all GC men will be aware of the risk, so the effort should be all about that final climb, and there is no hiding. Likely we'll see the group ride pace until the final 3 kilometers, and I don't expect any big or explosive attack up those aswell, just a grind because I'm sure most will fear those final ramps, one surely to be set by Ineos at Bernal's confortable pace. That's what I expect to see, the way he's been riding the Colombian should be the strongest up the Zoncolan, and it's beastful gradients will suit him too. It will be the first major summit finish, a different effort and at this time we are set to start seeing what the other win contenders have got to show, Emanuel Buchmann was the one who gave the most confidence in Montalcino and I expect his true colours to show tomorrow, Bora possibibly will help the chase tomorrow.
Simon Yates and Alexander Vlasov don't have a team to attack a race like this, if they can make the difference it will be on their own and on the final kilometers, I expect Yates to be well suited but unsure if he'll follow Bernal, Vlasov should be on the more conservative side with Caruso as this isn't the kind of climb they can attack. On the more offensive side I can only picture possibly Carthy alongside Buchmann, the Brit is heavy but somehow he thrives in steep climbs, and should love tomorrow's. Remco Evenepoel, can he do something? It's another mistery, the longer effort will suit him, the steep gradients won't be as hard for him, but the rain won't. Nevertheless his big engine suits the characteristics of such climb, but I think no-one, not even him knows how he'll get along with the mythical mountain.
Then there's the breakaway scenario. I would put it as a 60/40 for tomorrow, 40 being for the breakaway firstly because the start is pan-flat and it's unlikely to see a group packing with climbers up front, secondly because the final climb will be brutal and ridden all-out by the GC guys. In their advantage, the break may get a big gap if no-one is willing to control the race like it has been in the last few days. I think there will be teams with the idea of not letting a big gap grow, but we can only find that out on the road. I foresee the GC guys will want their main men besides them, not spending energy on the starting flat roads, breakaways will be available in the next days.
It won't be easy to get in it but contenders to take a win from it are present. I would put at the highest step riders like Dan Martin, Bauke Mollema and George Bennett, pure climbers who have freedom and should love a big climb like this, because a win won't just come from luck here. But the list is big, Jumbo has Koen Bouwman who can also do something special, Lotto has Harm Vanhoucke, UAE has Davide Formolo, DSM have Michael Storer, Chris Hamilton and possibly Jai Hindley, Groupama have Rudy Molard and Movistar, without the responsabilities of helping Marc Soler now suddenly has a big list of stage hunters in their ranks, if they get in front we could see a win by Dario Cataldo, Einer Rubio or Antonio Pedrero. The main challenge should be getting in the right group though...
Prediction Time
⭐ Vlasov, Evenepoel, Caruso, D.Martin, G.Bennett, Bouwma, Formolo, Hamilton, Cataldo, Pedrero
I think a GC day is incoming, and although I don't think his unbeatable run will go up to the finish of the race, tomorrow he is the man to beat and will take his confidence for a brutal climb.
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