As expected it was a day for the breakaway to fight for the win, the breakaway wasn't a strong but was indeed a big one, and although the day started with sunny conditions the stage was swarmed by the rain and harsh conditions, as expected the decisive move was made very far from the finish with Narvaez and Padun attacking from the breakaway, and when Mark Padun had a front broken wheel he lost time to Narvaez which proved crucial as the Equatorian took his first Grand Tour stage win, with Padun and Simon Clarke finishing in the podium. NTT was again very agressive in the stage, Pozzovivo went on the attack but didn't manage to create damage, wasn't an easy day for the GC contenders but they almost all arrived together.
Positive: Ineos continuing their streak of big wins coming from agressive racing.
Negative: Pernsteiner and Zakarin are the two GC contenders that struggled today and lost time, the latter loosing all chances of a Top10, the previous one no but has lost very crucial time.
The Route
Stage 13 is another stage designed with a big mix of possibilities that can decide the stage. It can fall for a breakaway as not many teams will want to push in those final kilometers, but at the same time most of the day is as flat as a Dutch road and should be quite easy to chase and prevent a breakaway from taking the glory from the day. In the final climbs things will be quite open and it can either be a small sprint finish or a small group getting away in the end for the win.
The first of them is Il Riccolo, 4.1Km at 8.3% but so much harder than those numbers, a nasty 20% gradient in the begining of the climb will shake off lots of riders, and after lowering the gradients will slowly ramp up again into the summit where the final kilometer is above 13% a brutal little ascent that summits with 30Km to go.
And the other one is shorter and steeper, Calaone is 2.1Km long at 9.8%, a grind, and it's not very consistent it does go well above 10% at some points in the first kilometer. An anaerobic effort, attacks out of this climb won't come easy but everyone will be put on the limit or close and wether it's a breakaway group, a group of climber or puncheurs, there will still be a little time to organize as it summits with 17Km to go.
If it does come down to a sprint it's a tricky finish with a rough corner inside the final kilometer.
The Weather
Had it been today it would've been hellish with heavy rain and wind, tomorrow the riders will have wet roads (luckily not too many descents), the wind won't be strong but will be a breeze that will be felt from the northeast, should be as cross and headwind for most of the stage. The final part of the stage features quite a lot of tail and crosswind though.
The Favourites
It's a really interesting stage, like today there's a whole lot of scenarios that can happen and no-one knows for sure which kind of rider will win no matter what you read. Most of the stage is flat, completely, not only will this allow teams to easily control a breakaway if necessary, it will also mean everyone will ride most of the stage confortably and easy which may help some of the fastest men to hang on in the main groups. The first subject is indeed the sprinters, needless to say these climbs should be too hard for the likes of Démare and even Sagan who's been climbing really well, but if the climbs aren't ridden that hard Sagan could use the descents to regain his spot within the peloton, Andrea Vendrame could also have an important role in the stage if he hangs on which can happen as he climbs quite well and should have good team support, Fabio Felline and Ben Swift are two other good options.
The GC riders will be on their toes aswell, there is enough ground for attacking and the gradients are enough to make damage, seeing how NTT has been riding and how Wilco Kelderman and the whole of Sunweb has been riding it can very well happen that the whole peloton will blow up, with Fuglsang also under pressure to gain back time after his mistimed punctured there could be alliances and several teams looking to attack, specially as there's a pink jersey on the line and also most GC riders have been for a while looking to take time on Vincenzo Nibali who's sure to be the man to beat when the Alps come.
With Narvaez finally taking the win I'll spare him of being systematically in the stars as he may be there but won't have the pressure to take another win, Diego Ulissi has took one aswell, there may be some moves by puncheurs in opportunist times or also punchy climbers. With no big gaps set to be made some GC outsiders can also get to escape some that can do these short climbs very well like Patrick Konrad, Brandon McNulty and Jai Hindley, even KOM leader Ruben Guerreiro is a very good option for an elusive second win.
Regarding breakaway chances I admit they are also quite good, lots of riders won't leave the race with a win and they are looking to be off that list. De Gendt failed to be in the break today, I don't know how to feel about him but I just have to mention him because he's still with great form and has the quality to do it. Enrico Battaglin, Attila Valter (yes again, I don't know why it hasn't happened yet), Jonathan Caicedo/Tanel Kangert, Nico Denz, Mikkel Bjerg and Giovanni Visconti are my main picks that can be in the break and win from it. I point out the pan-flat start should mean lots of not-so-strong riders get in and will easily shed in the climbs which means the break's level isn't that high, but at the same time some powerful riders in front could make it more healthy for those who will focus solely on the climbing.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bjerg, Kangert, Visconti, Narvaez, Guerreiro, Kelderman, Fuglsang, Vendrame, Felline
UAE has pulled out all kinds of strategies on the last few days, my feeling is that Diego Ulissi simply isn't having the legs he has in the opening days of the Giro. They've been agressive though, I think the stage is easy to control and some teams will commit to it a bit, how the climbs will go I don't know but my call is on Brandon McNulty, who's been climbing these steep pitches really well and has the power to sprint and also make a solo move to the end.
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