Peter Sagan took his first win of the race in a slightly reduced bunch sprint after Bora did most of the work to drop some of the fast men in the peloton including some of the favourites. Some fast men remained in the group, but in the end Bora had the numbers to help Sagan and despite UAE posing a big challenge Sagan was the fastest in the dangerous sprint, beating Fernando Gaviria and Davide Cimolai.
Positive: Sagan getting his first win and taking hold of the points jersey, some secondary sprinters and puncheurs also got a pretty good result like Oldani, Vermeersch, De Bondt.
Negative: Some sprinters lost contact and a chance to fight for the win, Nizzolo specially was disapointed after just missing out on the split.
The Route
The most dangerous stage of the race? May be, it'll be a stage where most of the GC contenders will be outside of their space of confort. They aren't cobbled roads, but gravel brings some additional challenge, firstly the run-up to the sectors will be furious everytime and dangerous, then the risk of punctures is real, the lack of traction specially in corners will frequently make it risky inside the sectors, the descents are usually quite hard for those who struggle with the technical side and the climbs are usually less proper for those looking to climb out of the saddle. With that said, where are they?
In the second half of the 162.7 kilometer stage is where we'll find all of them, it's a pretty simple stage on Tuscan roads until there, with 70Km to go the riders enter the first sector which is 9.3Km in lenght and the only sector which is generally downhill, likely will be the most dangerous one. The race can break apart there, and there's only a small gap until the next sector which is the longest and hardest of the day, it includes a 3.7K at 8.3% climb which will be quite a challenge on these roads, featuring an intermediate sprint in the middle of it but the sector still goes on after the ascent, going from 51 to 38 Kms to go and after this sector there's no doubt all hell will have been released.
A gentle descent follows, and the third sector should be calmer with a reduced peloton coming in, the sector starts with a gentle false flat downhill but is mostly uphill, from 25.8Km to 18Km to go, and a quick descent will lead to the final sector.
The Passo Del Lume Spento starts off quite sharp, 13Km to go, with some rough gradients in rough gravel (only part of the sectors that doesn't have streetview, so that tells me something) and then flattens out for the final gravel kilometers of gravel which have nothing of technical in them, immediately coming out of the cobbled sector though they will find 1.8Km at 9.4% which will be deadly after such a stage, further differences can be made there, that can be expanded until the summit of the climb which finishes with just 3.9Km to go.
After the climb there will be a short technical descent back into Motalcino where the riders will have a small ramp towards the line.
The Weather
Looks like the weather will be solid unlike the last week. There is a little possibility of drizzle in the morning but that would make it safer for the riders indeed, as for the wind it won't be present really, if anything only a breeze from the north which shouldn't really make a difference as the riders will constantly be under direction changes.
The Favourites
Tricky day to say the least. With the GC so tight still it will be the culmination of tension in the race as in every gravel sector there will be an immense and furious fight for positioning, which can itself be the cause of some crashes I am expecting that. In the sectors themselves things will be dangerous, because in 35Km of it there will be tricky and dangerous sections, including downhills where the GC guys will be under tremendous pressure and can commit mistakes. Punctures are also bound to happen. Most will then be trying to survive, few of these riders have much experience in the classics and in these kind of stressful and dangerous racing, men like Remco Evenepoel, Dan Martin, Alexander Vlasov and Simon Yates are in the run for the Giro win but they will likely be looking only to save their day, they aren't experienced in this kind of racing (although I will say Evenepoel can either do bad or just take off and win the actual stage, wouldn't be surprised be neither).
On the offensive for sure you will have Egan Bernal, despite being in pink, Ineos have been constantly pushing the pace in the opening week and they must be full of confidence, specially after Bernal's run of form and his impressive performance in Strade Bianche, the British team will be looking to cause more damage and they have the team to support the leader perfectly including Gianni Moscon mainly. Riders like Davide Formolo and Romain Bardet can be big allies, both have been on the podium of Strade and are great riders for this kind of agressive unpredicable racing, and they for sure have had an X on this day for months already in order to gain some GC places. I would expect the Trek guys to go well, Nibali is a good bike handler, Ciccone is having great form and will love the punchy racing and they've got a good team to support them, Hugh Carthy will also have a strong team including Alberto Bettiol behind him so I don't expect any meaningful loss there, there are some wildcards in Damiano Caruso, Marc Soler and Emanuel Buchmann who can go either way.
Breakaway chances for this stage are low. The start is flat, the gravel sections will see big chunks of time taken because of the peloton's fight for positioning, and for sure there will be a constant high pace as soon as some climbers notice dificulties (or others feal really good). Still though there is the chance for some outsiders to take advantage of the GC fight, get in the wheel and take advantage of it, most noticeably the Alpecin squad who have in Gianni Vermeersch a real contender for the stage, who's showing good form and had a brilliant classics run. Quinten Hermans of Intermarché could also do really well here, Matteo Jorgenson and Diego Ulissi could also do something special if they have green card to fight for the stage at some point.
Prediction Time
⭐ Vlasov, Bardet, Carthy, Caruso, Hermans, Ulissi
Ineos have done a perfect job so far this Giro, positioning included. They have big engines, experience and Moscon who should be able to by himself tear the peloton with Bernal on the wheel for sure. The Colombian will take confidence over to the gravel roads, and attack on the final climb to a solo win, is the scenario I imagine.
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