It was one of those epic Giro days, after joining the early break Peter Sagan took an incredible solo win on the 10th stage of the Giro. After having gotten on the hard fought break, resisting the full-on chase of Groupama and holding on despite the fast pace in the peloton, it was in the steep climbs of Abruzzo that he made the difference, and on the wet twisty steep roads he went onto a brilliant win. In the peloton NTT pushed, Pozzovivo punctured but came back and powered up the final climb that made a selection in the GC group, later catching back on Pello Bilbao who attacked early on, and winning time on Jakob Fuglsang who punctured in the final descent and lost 1:15 in a day where he was expected to make a move. Brandon McNulty with a late charge in the group finished second and João Almeida won the group sprint to win some more bonus seconds on his rivals.
Positive: Sagan with a brilliant win, getting very close to Démare on the points jersey aswell and also keeping the team from working today. Pozzovivo coming back from a puncture in bad timing to stay safe and Bilbao who really lit up the race with balls.
Negative: Fuglsang sadly had a puncture in a time he could do nothing to recover, tried to limit the losses, not a crucial but an important hit for the Dane, Harm Vanhoucke was the other rider who couldn't finish with the best today but for different reasons as he looks to have struggled with cramps.
The Route
Stage 11 is a well deserved day for the sprinters. A nice easy day, nothing special in it and should be for the men with the biggest peak power.
The finish in Rimini almost almost looked really safe but in the final kilometer there's two corners in quick succession that make a junction of 180º, a complete turn-around with around 500 meters to go that will stretch things out for a fast finish by the Adriatic sea.
The Weather
It won't be strong but there will be the presence of a slight tailwind breeze throughout the stage, but shouldn't do much to the liking of those that will go on the break.
The Favourites
It isn't a pan-flat day but those short hilltops shouldn't pose much of a challenge for the pure sprinters even if they're attacked, not at least for the man to beat here who is Arnaud Démare. Despite having lost 2 riders Groupama have the chance to take a 4th win and extend their lead in the points jersey for Démare on what may be one of his last chances to take big points. I think they could try to send someone in front and force other teams to work, Bora probably wouldn't, but the presence of UAE/Israel at least should be enough to control something even if it went all off.
So Démare is the man to beat, sharp and slick leadout he's got with Guarnieri and Scotson lately, Fernando Gaviria may be his biggest opponent although he's failed to be there in the sprints so far. He may not make it to the next sprint stage, UAE will have pressure to perform no doubt, the other team with pure sprinters that should take big risks to take a win is Israel, they've won some days ago with Dowsett and alongside Brandle as engines, Cimolai and Zabel as strong and proven sprinters who will be there in the end. The other pure sprinter mentioned is Alvaro Hodeg, but at this point I don't know if the team will be riding for him or for Ballerini, or if it's really decided on the road.
As for the others well we're always going to expect Sagan in there, tough day he had today but his legs look really really good, he's almost taken a win in a sprint and has been Démare's main opposition, tomorrow is another day to try and take that elusive win that hasn't happened in over a year. Elia Viviani is always a wildcard but it's hard at this point to deposit much trust in him, his teammate Simone Consonni is another option but they will probably be working together for an ideal position for Viviani, Andrea Vendrame, Ben Swift, Filippo Fiorelli, Giovani Lonardi and Stefano Oldani are outsiders to be there in front to fight for the Top10.
Prediction Time
⭐ Viviani, Cimolai, Hodeg
He didn't disapoint me last time and won easily in fact, he burnt some matches today but I think he's still with no doubt the strongest rider for tomorrow, he's great with positioning and has a good leadout, Gaviria is I think the only one who can beat him head to head but needs more than just legs and I don't know if he'll dial it perfectly.
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