It was a brutal day as promised in the Giro as the fight for the breakaway early on was long and very hard, including moves by Damiano Caruso and Daniel Martinez who were looking on seizing it. In the end the stage looked geared to the breakaway with the really strong group ahead, but the constant pace in the peloton and the big push by Ineos saw the remaining men caught in the final kilometer, where Egan Bernal stormed from the peloton to take his first Grand Tour stage win, taking time on his rivals, led by Giulio Ciccone and Alexander Vlasov, and is the new pink jersey.
Positive: Bernal and Ineos once again showing how strong they are and took yet another small chunk of time on their rivals, aswell as a big win.
Negative: There was no negative surprise to mention honestly, everything within the lines.
The Route
To wrap off the first week there is a tricky stage. Just 140 kilometers out on the road, the finish is 400 meters below the startline, there is a tricky uphill start and some rolling climbs over the stage which make it quite a dangerous stage for a breakaway. Not ideal, but not bad at all, the Valico Della Somma should be an important moment of the stage both in breakaway and peloton if there is someone with intentions of pushing the pace, it summits with 39 kilometers to go but it can be taken quite fast by some teams, nevertheless the stage should be decided in the streets of Foligno.
The finale isn't simple. Inside the last 2 kilometers you'll find 3 corners which do look sharp on the map but are decently wide on the road. The roads never narrow down (no pinch points), the point at 1.1Km to go will stretch things out as there will be two fast corners but there is some time to get back to the front then. The final couple hundred meters are confusing to me, they are wide but there's a slight turn to the right side, it looks oddly close to the finish line and I reckon that will not be at all a safe finish, but I'll cross my fingers that everyone stays upright.
The Weather
It will be another incredibly dangerous day with strong winds (above 20Km/h) and even stronger gusts (up to 60K/h) coming from the southwest. This represents massive danger for the GC riders as there are exposed sections in the high plains just after Rieti (~96 to go) and the whole last 25Km which should also be quite exposed and pan-flat. The final kilometer has a lot of direction changes, the finishing straight should have cover for the riders with houses and the crowd blocking it.
The Favourites
Firstly I need to mention how dangerous of a stage it is for breakaway chances. Whilst it's a day targeted towards the fast men, it is quite hilly in some sections but the fact that there is a gentle climb early on means that we can see quite a solid group up front, which one way or another will be benefited by the finish 400 meters below the start and the generally favourable winds throughout the day, that features some rolling climbs throughout it. And with the not-so-hard start it can be a group composed of many kinds of riders, but most importantly it's not hard enough to see the big riders struggling. There's no point in naming who can be in a break and win that would likely be a list of several dozen riders, but some that are important to note are Alexis Gougeard, Simon Pellaud, Edoardo Affini, Thomas de Gendt/Stefano Oldani and Matteo Jorgenson who should be free of responsabilities from GC leaders or possible winners on a sprint, if we are to consider big riders with no responsabilities to work for GC men and can get a green card we can consider Victor Campenaerts, Dries De Bondt or Daniel Oss for example, all others should stick to their leaders as the day can be very dangerous and all of them will be trying to ride in the head of the peloton to avoid possible splits or crashes.
If all goes normal though, it should be a day for the fast men to get glory, and with the lack of a dominant sprinter there will be several teams interested to chase which isnt exactly ideal for the breakaway fans. Caleb Ewan has abandoned which leaves us with a contender less but by no means is the list lacking in quality, we've had Tim Merlier snatch a brilliant win in a finale similarly dangerous as this one and I would expect him to be the most likely rider to win tomorrow, followed by Giacomo Nizzolo who is consistently the most likely rider to finish second. Both teams will be all-out focused on the sprint possibility though for sure as they seek points for the maglia ciclamino aswell as the stage and they have no GC contender in the ranks (I won't say Louis Vervaeke counts).
There's Dylan Groenewegen who on paper would be the man to beat but is struggling in his return to competition, he's been there though just has been lacking the positioning so tomorrow is a new opportunity, there's Elia Viviani who continues to lead Cofidis' lineup who've just gotten an important win and will be extra motivated to support the Italian on the fast finishes, UAE on the other side won't be fully focused but Fernando Gaviria will have another chance to get a win, his experienced leadout should be a bonus for tomorrow. On the intermediate point you have Peter Sagan and Davide Cimolai who won't win for sure but will surely have a good position, latter will have to count on his strong leadout to do so though.
You have pure sprinters in Matteo Moschetti (who's been riding really well so far) and Max Kanter who have a good opportunity for a strong result, and the classic Italian entourage in Filippo Fiorelli, Andrea Pasqualon and Andrea Vendrame.
Prediction Time
⭐ Cimolai, Moschetti, Kanter, Pasqualon, De Gendt
I think Tim Merlier will take his second win. Wether or not the wind will make itself impact the stage, for sure one of the sprinters will take the win.
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