It was a day of glory for Portugal as Ruben Guerreiro attacked onto a hard-fought breakaway and took the stage win after sprinting away from Jonathan Castroviejo in the final hundred meters of the stage, with Mikkel Bjerg finishing third. In the peloton it was a relatively calm day as expected, there were no moves and everything was settled in an explosive finish in Roccaraso where there were small gaps between the favourites but nothing very important, João Almeida retained the pink jersey.
Positive: Guerreiro and EF getting themselves a second breakaway win from the race, Kelderman and Fuglsang won 14 seconds on Nibali and 21 on Kruijswijk, they aren't big gaps but it isn't time I'm sure they were planning on giving away in such short space. Particularly interested in Jai Hindley who sprinted across to those two and has been protected, Sunweb have a very interesting card there up their sleeve.
Negative: Nothing really to note, wasn't expecting Pedrero to loose 49 seconds to those 3 but he won't have a very important role in the GC.
The Route
The second week begins with a trecherous stage still in the Appenines, the finish in Tortoreto should have an exciting result as the day has a hard sequence of short but steep hilltops that can see some attacks, it's a day either for a breakaway or the explosive stage-hunters, the GC riders will need to stay on their toes though not to make a slip.
The first climb of that final sequence is Colonnella and it's the hardest, it goes up to 18% at a points and it's quite steep.
11.4 Km to go we find the final climb of the day in Tortoreto, it's inconsistent, it's steep and it's not that short. Adding this to the previous combination of short steep climbs and descents it just becomes a recipe for chaos for someone on a bad day, and possible to see some GC moves here if fragilities are exposed.
This map gives a little view of how technical that section of the route is, lots of winding roads including the descent into the finish, as for the final kilometers by the sea those will be all the opposite of technical but it will be hard to get there in good position.
The Weather
The rain should hold up during the day but it will rain overnight and some roads may be slick and dangerous. As for the wind it comes mostly from northeast, not very strong but with some intensity.
The Favourites
It's a dangerous day for the GC riders. Whatever happens the candidates for pink will be on their toes and it can very well kick off. The intentions of Wilco Kelderman and Sunweb alongside Jakob Fuglsang look very clear. They know they have the upper hand in the short steep climbs and with the race's uncertainty of making it to Milano every day can be decisive. Both Nibali and Kruijswijk struggled in Roccaraso so there will for sure be an attempt to distance them once more for sure.
It contrasts with my first idea that Sunweb may give Michael Matthews freedom to go on the attack and try to win the stage from the break. It may still happen but the climbs are hard enough and there's interest to break the race apart, riders like Pozzovivo and Majka may also want to set things up and break the race appart, specially Bora that have the team for it.
Although I believe in the GC attacking scenario it's a day that points towards a breakaway. I doubt any team will want to control the break in a headwind just for a small chance of a win, there's quite strong stage-hunters already at this point of the race and there are no big mountains where break could loose time, if there is a solid group of riders who can climb in front they can definetely make it and puncheurs aren't excluded for sure. Last stage my breakaway roulette had both winner and runner-up so I see no reason why I wouldn't do it again. But firstly a mention that even if GC riders decide the stage, names like Ulissi and Narvaez could definetely be in the fight for the stage even if they don't feature in the breakaway, but let's do this:
AG2R - Vendrame
Androni - Restrepo
CCC - Valter
Cofidis - Rossetto
EF - S.Clarke
Lotto - de Gendt, Armée
Mitchelton - Howson
Movistar - Cataldo, Villella
Ineos - Narvaez
Sunweb - Matthews
UAE - Ulissi, Conti
Bit of a shorter list today but honestly I feel it has no less quality. 14 names, for me Matthews/Ulissi/Narvaez are stage candidates in both scenarios, others have the GC freedom, the quality, the form and most have their freedom when it comes to going on moves instead of staying with their leaders (Lotto are the exception but in this scenario I only expect one of them to go not both). As for Matthews he came to the race for stage wins and points classification, so even though Kelderman is looking really good and may attack I think Matthews has the freedom to pursue his ambitions aswell.
Prediction Time
⭐ Hindley, Konrad, Majka, Conti, Armée, S.Clarke, Valter, Restrepo
My call for the win is Atilla Valter. Great legs in Roccaraso, has been under the radar a lot but is carrying some serious legs and he has the freedom to go in the break and take a win.
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