The Route
Tomorrow the Giro begins! After the Hungary start was cancelled for this year the organization managed to re-route it into Sicily and the first pink jersey will come in from this short time-trial.
It's 15.1Km long and yes you are seeing it right, maybe the weirdest begin to a race that I've seen in recent years, the opening 1.1Km are in a slight uphill and we get an intermediate right away, and from there on you have a very fast descent including a couple switchbacks. Most of the descent though is very straightforward and the speeds are going to be insanely high!
After the 9.4Km intermediate the time-trial turns a little technical with some corners that can be sketchy where risks taken can be worth some valuable seconds.
The Weather
There's strong wind. Southern wind for the first hours which slowly turns into northwestern. It changes, but I don't think it really changes how things go (it also looses intensity throughout the afternoon). I think that if it makes any change it'll only favour the powerhouses even more.
The Favourites
The man to beat here is no doubt Filippo Ganna. No doubt about it, the time-trial is short, it has a big descent section fit for the powerful riders and even in the long ones, he's just became world champion AND he's racing at home. He wins if nothing goes wrong but don't get me wrong the competition is very strong, coming from his teammate first Rohan Dennis, it also fits him and he'll be taking risks to try to take pink and prove his worth. Thomas himself from Ineos can also do a strong result, form looks good.
So we've established Ineos are the team that's most likely to take the win. Competition comes first of all from Victor Campenaerts, really strong rider in short time-trials however his lack of weight in comparison to those big riders like Ganna isn't going to be very good for him, he's always knocking on the door. The sprinters can do something, two in specific, Michael Matthews and Arnaud Démare they both have experience and proper quality in prologues, this isn't exactly a prologue but it's still within striking distance if they have a good strategy.
As for pure time-trialists there's a very different story, Jos van Emden, Alex Dowsett, Edoardo Affini and Tony Martin are some riders who'll love the descent section and can take advantage of it, whilst riders like Benjamin Thomas, Jonathan Castroviejo will try to take advantage of the uphill start and can take advantage of aerodynamics, although I'm not sure it's enough to overcome the power of the heavyweight riders.
Outiders then don't lack, Chad Haga who won the final time-trial last year, Jan Tratnik, Mikkel Bjerg and the CCC boys Josef Cerny and Kamil Gradek are some more outsiders, including some heavyweight riders that will love this route.
Prediction Time
⭐ Matthews, van Emden, Dowsett, Affini, Haga, Cerny, Gradek, Bjerg
As for the win though it's time for Ganna to shine. Taylor made route for him, and he's been beaten 0 times in time-trials since coming back from lockdown, he takes it no doubt and takes pink which he will loose in Etna, I predict for Thomas (now let's see if Monday I can screenshot this!).
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