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Rúben Silva

Giro d'Italia Overall Preview

Updated: Oct 2, 2020


 

Maglia Rosa


Simon Yates


After 2018's race there's no doubt Simon Yates is set to take another stint targeting the pink jersey. With no doubt he's an amazing climber it's more than set, and on his day he's also a strong time-trialist, he's a Grand Tour winner and he also has a good team surrounding him. And form? He's coming in as the Tirreno-Adriatico winner! The British is a pure climber and will for sure enjoy the mountainous route specially before the Alps, he's got as support in the mountains the strong Australian duo of Jack Haig and Lucas Hamilton who are expected to shine. There's clear organization and quality on the Australian team, they've put a lot of their cards into this race and may get the benefits of it.


Main Domestiques: Jack Haig, Lucas Hamilton


Geraint Thomas


One of his main rivals will be fellow British Geraint Thomas the rider who won the Tour before Yates got crowned for his dominant 2018 Vuelta. Thomas was set to tackle the Tour but after his form didn't look to be quite there the team opted to have him lead the Giro. And with time he's proving it wasn't a bad decisio, he's really come into form for the Tirreno-Adriatico where he finished second on the overall and also 4th in the Worlds ITT, he's grown into form quite well and has a lot of TT kilometers that he has to seize well. Not a pure climber but he's proved to do very well at them although the Giro is a different beast than the Tour, consistency is necessary and he's shown he has it, the team behind him isn't at the level Bernal had at the Tour but it's still a strong block with TT world champions Filippo Ganna and Rohan Dennis and Tao Hart should be the team's main domestique for the mountains, alongside a diverse but strong and all-round team.


Main Domestiques: Tao Hart, Jonathan Castroviejo


Vincenzo Nibali


At 35 there aren't many riders that can still fight for Grand Tours but Vincenzo Nibali still has the legs for it. The Italian is an iconic rider, and whilst one may argue that age may start weighing Nibali is experience in it's most pure form. A GC contender for over a decade, a double Giro winner and 4-time GT winner, he's known for superbly timing his form and moves, a very smart rider who can never be taken out of contention specially with such a brutal final week. Nibali is coming to win the race, he's been on the Giro podium 5 out of 5 times since 2010 this itself speaks a lot. But not only that, the truth is that Nibali has seemed to be coming into a slow rise of form lately and he's coming with a brilliant time stacked with climbers. After Porte's success in the Tour more can be expected here, despite the CV infection that happened in the last month uprising Italian rider Giulio Ciccone will be at the start and will be a crucial piece to the team, but the presence of 7 climbers behind him, most of them have shown brilliant form since lockdown transmits to me a great message of confidence.


Main Domestiques: Giulio Ciccone, Gianluca Brambilla


Jakob Fuglsang


Now I write Fuglsang because he should in theory be the leader but by no means is he a sole leader. The Astana team have done a good Tour with Lopez being on the verge of finishing on the podium and to the Giro they have similar ambitions. Although Fuglsang hasn't had the success in GT's that he's had in one-week races and classics he's a man to consider greatly here specially as there are lots of sharp hilly stages. The Dane is coming with a support crew including Russian talent Alexander Vlasov who has been a crucial part of the team and the Lombardia winner will also have Miguel Angel Lopez in the team, in the end of contract the Colombian is said to be here in support of team duties, perhaps stage wins aswell. The team is a mix of experience and some new riders taking in experience, it's an interesting team that can pull a lot of success.


Main Domestiques: Miguel Angel Lopez, Alexander Vlasov, Oscar Rodriguez


Steven Kruijswijk


As Geraint Thomasm Steven Kruijswijk was set to tackle the Tour before a crash in the Dauphiné derailed his plans. Questions over wether his non-presence affected the team will never be answered, but with no Tour win the team is now focused on getting it in Italy. And what some months ago didn't look like a very realistic goal, with Kruijswijk we can expect a very close battle. In 2016 the Dutch was on his way to take the race before a crash in the Agnello descent, which will be ridden this year, took him out and also kept him out of the podium. He's here to better that 4th place and he may very well, although most of the firepower went to the Tour he's coming in with a young but ambitious team including Tour de l'Avenir winner Tobias Foss and Antwan Tolhoek, big with a lot of experience in road captains Tony Martin and Jos van Emden.


Main Domestiques: Tobias Foss, Antwan Tolhoek


Rafal Majka


Before last year I admit I though Majka had already finished his GT potential. How wrong I was, after finishing 6th in the Giro and Vuelta last year he's confirmed to be back to his best legs and is targeting the Giro with ambitions to repeat or even top the result of last year. With Patrick Konrad he won't be exposed greatly in the mountains, the team will feature the important presence of Peter Sagan which may even bring something extra to the team, as for Majka he's finished 4th in Pologne and 3rd in the recent Tirreno-Adriatico so I would say he's coming with quite some confidence into Italy!


Main Domestiques: Patrick Konrad


Wilco Kelderman


It's an ambitious claim I know, but Wilco Kelderman is a nice rider to consider for a Top10, maybe more. The Dutch is a rider that throughout the years has suffered a lot from ilnesses and injuries, he debuted in the Giro in 2014 where he finished well with a young age, he's finished 4th in the Vuelta in 2017 which proves that he has the legs to be up there in the races if it falls for him. In the Tour the team raced perfectly without pressure, here however with Matthews the team will be on the hunt for stages and possibly Ciclamino which may cost Kelderman and/or the team a bit, but his recent 4th place in Tirreno gives confidence that he's got great form going on, he's a rider that likes the hilly stages and time-trials so one can for sure give him another chance, specially if the team takes some wins and get motivated. The team is bringing a solid squad mostly of climbers, that can help Matthews in the hilly stages but also help Kelderman a lot when he needs it.


Main Domestiques: Sam Oomen, Chris Hamilton


Other names to consider:


This Giro is more open than usual, and also I didn't mention those many names because I realize some of the domestiques I've mentioned previously can have a big role in the race and also finish on the Top10, some abandons may lead to it and also wouldn't discard riders taking advantages of breakaways to achieve it.


To name a few riders like Herman Pernsteiner or Pello Bilbao, Patrick Konrad, Ilnur Zakarin, the Quickstep duo of Fausto Masnada and James Knox (and I'll admit as a Portuguese I love the thought of João Almeida pulling on a big surprise), Tanel Kangert, Carl Frederik Hagen, Antonio Pedrero, Domenico Pozzovivo, the big UAE group of climbers featuring Ulissi, Conti, Dombrowski and the young American Brandon McNulty, alongside some of the big domestiques previously mentioned such as Lopez/Vlasov, Haig, Ciccone and possibly some more surprises that could come from within the stronger teams.


S.Yates, G.Thomas, V.Nibali

S.Kruijswijk

J.Fuglsang, R.Majka, A.Vlasov, MA.Lopez



This wasn't my first choice. Over the last few weeks I had Yates in mind, Yates the main contender although Thomas was looking really good aswell. But it got me thinking, seeing them so well in Tirreno, too well, this isn't an ordinary race. Take 2016 for example, Nibali was on the back foot for most of the race, and although he benefited from Kruijswijk's bad luck his final week was nothing but superb with colossal mountain stages where he turned the race on it's head. This Giro is brutal, everyone will get to the final week already with a lot of fatigue, and there's so many brutal Alpine stages, this Giro will be won there despite the amount of big mountain stages in the first two week. If anyone knows how to prepare for a Giro it's Nibali, and I think he takes it!

 

Maglia Ciclamina


Peter Sagan


It took time, a long long time, but despite the classics this year clashing with the Giro it was evident Sagan had a contract and followed it, and will for the first time ride the Italian Grand Tour and is coming for sure with the goal of winning the points classification after for the first time loosing the green jersey at the Tour. His sprinting legs aren't the best, but the Giro favours more the riders that can climb, perhaps too much and will actually favour the climbers, but Sagan has the ideal skills to take home Ciclamina here, it's a nice change of air for him, whilst his leadout is going for the classics he's sharing lead duties with Majka and his leadout should include Bodnard and Gamper, they won't ever put him in front, but will lead him and let him do his thing.


Leadout: Patrick Gamper, Maciej Bodnar


Michael Matthews


After missing out on the Tour Michael Matthews is coming to Italy aswell, the 2017 Tour green jersey winner, this season he is looking quite strong just coming off a 6th place in the worlds, he's flying, not the strongest of sprinters but with the amount of hilly or hilltop finishes (and a suiting prologue), Matthews has stages to gain ground on others. His issue is that some of the stages that suit him suit breakaways, which may be bad for him but not if he can get on breakaways and not be chased as we've seen at the Tour. His leadout, well, leadout? Not so much, the team is in fact built up of almost all climbers, which isn't the best for his flat stages, but can be very useful as he will want to take points on hilly stages and he will have a strong team to work for him there if it's needed.


Leadout: Nico Denz


Arnaud Démare


Groupama had a plan for the Tour, get Thibaut Pinot to the win and they had a team for it despite Démare showing off brilliant legs and great form, however with time opportunities come and it isn't the first time the Frenchman is coming for the Giro with a team built around him. Démare is a big candidate for this jersey, he can climb somewhat well and is very fast in the pure sprints, and he's also got a big and strong leadout, Kilian Frankiny is the only rider who should have more freedom and try himself in the mountainous stages, everyone else is coming around Démare, and as in the Tour the initial ambitions are quite high, now let's see if he can fullfil them.


Leadout: Ramon Sinkeldam, Jacopo Guarnieri, Benjamin Thomas, Miles Scotson, Ignatas Konovalovas


Elia Viviani


After what is being a disapointing season and a sub-par Tour, Viviani has decided to come to the Giro and double his chances of success in a Grand Tour, the truth his he's shown some speed, but to win a sprint you need good positioning, one can argue it's on the bike or the team but in the end it comes down to the legs, racing home he may have more motivation and that can perhaps bring him a win, I think he'll want to target the jersey at least for some days as Cofidis need some good exposure, but his performance in the pure sprint will dictate it.


Leadout: Simone Consonni, Nathan Haas, Marco Mathis, Mathias le Turnier


Fernando Gaviria


After some rough years this year Fernando Gaviria is back showing his best legs, even though in February he had issues with CV and was infected, his comeback to racing in Burgos came with a win, and in the meantime he's won a hilly stage in Limousin and the also hilly Giro della Toscana. Needless to say his form looks to be back, he's a bit of a joker coming into the race when it comes to the sprints but he's got good men to back him up as compatriot Juan Sebastian Molano and Max Richeze make for a small yet very effective leadout train, supported by young powerhouse Mikkel Bjerg.


Leadout: Juan Sebastian Molano, Max Richeze, Mikkel Bjerg


Other names to consider:


With the dificulties we have in store it's really hard to discard the climbers from this. Although they won't be targeting the sprints, some hilly stages are really hard, others will go for breakaways, it isn't an easy situation of course but I wouldn't be completely surprised to see some of the GC men high up there in the classification, firstly because I imagine most sprinters will abandon at some point due to the brutality of the Giro, secondly there's lots of stages where they'll get some good points, consistency makes success, Simon Yates is my prime example of someone who likes to attack, accostumed to winning stages and also loves the punchy hilltop finishes. Other riders like Davide Ballerini and Diego Ulissi could play a part of this classification too, Ballerini is a strong sprinter and puncheur, Ulissi a pure puncheurs, but both have breakaway freedom certainly and can sneak into the classification via intermediate sprint points aswell.


M.Matthews, P.Sagan

A.Démare

F.Gaviria, S.Yates, D.Ulissi, D.Ballerini, E.Viviani



I'm going with Michael Matthews to take this jersey, confidence is there, and I think the team is set to help him out getting it. But the truth is he climbs very well, can go for hilltop finishes, the small time-trials and all hilly stages including breakaways, and a good rider that can go up there in the mountains and, if it comes to that, perhaps the one that will resist the mountains better. He'll defend himself in the sprints and win this!

 

Maglia Azurra


Now I've opted not to give a list here because it's actually quite open. Lots of climbers, most are domestiques though there aren't that many stage-hunters that are set to win for sure. I've included a bit of diversity, lots of names and lots of quality.


P.Bilbao, S.Yates, G.Ciccone

V.Nibali, MA.Lopez, F.Masnada

G.Thomas, J.Fuglsang, I.Zakarin, J.Dombrowski, D.Pozzovivo, V.Conti, J.Haig, D.Ulissi


Cima Coppi - 50,30,20,14,10,6,4,2,1

1st - 40,18,12,9,6,4,2,1

2nd - 18,8,6,4,2,1

3rd - 9,4,2,1

4th - 3,2,1


I had Yates for pink. But I thought, he can't take both surely right? I do trust him to take a lot of points of Etna and Roccaraso for example, he can take some summit finishes so definetely a big man, but he can't combine that with pink. He's starting the race off as the strongest climber I reckon, will attack the first week, I think that even if he cracks at some point he will benefit and take home this jersey, just a hunch but I trust El Puto!

 

Maglia Bianca


Alexander Vlasov


Alexander Vlasov is the big contender for this jersey. On one side it's his first Grand Tour and he's also for sure going to be helping Jakob Fuglsang (and maybe Miguel Angel Lopez?), on the other he has very good legs, he's done amazing this season he's one of the relevations after he promised last season, he's proven to thrive in both long and short summit finishes, has a big engine and has the surprise factor on his side, no-one knows what he can really do in terms of consistency.


Other names to consider:


With Vlasov the man to bead, although not starting as leader likely and with a very long and hard race on the way there's a chance of surprise in the race, so there's some names that I'd like to mention that could play a role here. In those that are set to also work for their leaders like Tao Hart who will support Geraint Thomas and also Tobias Foss who'll support Kruijswijk, I trust both can do really well though, James Knox has done a somewhat nice GC attempt in the Vuelta last year, he's trained for this and he may be going for another one here, not the strongest of riders but he can for sure be the team's GC option although teammate João Almeida, a GT debutant could surprise (this is more of my Portuguese side speaking!). Lastily I'll mention Brandon McNulty, he's a great rider, steadily evolving, it's just an internal hunch of mine honestly he doesn't have much to back him up, but yeah I can dream!


A.Vlasov

J.Knox

T.Foss, J.Almeida, B.McNulty, S.Oomen



Well you can't say I was expecting a different name right! Vlasov is a joker, I can't say I believe he'll make it through the 3 weeks without a bad day, but he is the superior rider here and if he holds on the team may spare him so that he focuses on it.


Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!

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