Another step in the road of the Ronde van Vlaanderen, tomorrow we have Gent-Wevelgem, a cobbled classic more oriented towards the fast men but one that, as all of them, will promise a lot of show!
The Route
253.5 kilometers is a thing of beauty. In E3 we've had the intensity we get in the Ronde, here we have the distance. Usually it's a race for the sprinters, there is also quite normally a big battle between some escapees and some riders/teams looking to bring everything back and it's not hard to see why. The first half of the race is quite flat, and although there is definitely room to blow up the race in it's hard section, it's not an absolute brute, and usually some sprinters survive in the front groups.
We have a first section of sectors which finishes with 84.5Km to go with the ascent of the Kemmelberg via it's classic side, then the new pluugstreets with the last of 3 to finish with 65.5Km to go before we tackle the final section of bergs.
We've got a 2nd ascent of the Kemmelberg via it's classic side with 53Km to go but it's on the final cobbled ascent, via the Ossuaire side where it can and should blow up, it's a slow rise in gradient still in tarmac and when the riders get in the cobbles they'll already be above 10%, and face brutal gradients of over 20% with 39.5Km to go.
Afterwards there's with 34.5Km to go the final climb of the day, it's not long but it has some tough gradients in the Baneberg. From there on the roads aren't too harsh, they are mostly pan-flat all the way into Wevelgem.
Regarding the final kilometers there's nothing technical about them. The little passage through Menen may see some attacks, but always road furniture and some sense of opportunity can do wonders in a finale like this.
The Weather
Southwestern wind and it will be very strong! 25-30Km/h all day long and that means it will be a rough rough day, one to be destroyed by crosswinds perhaps. The roads after the final cobbled sectors will have a strong cross/tailwind, perfect for the attackers.
Will sprinters actually win?
Upon seeing the weather my answer is... no. It can be argued but I do consider this a classic for the sprinters, those that are quite good in the cobbled classics and are more than just a maximum power output. However, to do this they rely on teammates and organized group work behind the obvious attacks that'll happen in the bergs. Unfortunately for them, the strong cross (and mostly tail) wind after the bergs means that, chasing down moves really won't be an easy task, dare I say, it'll be almost impossible if there's cooperation in front. With this being said there are two teams who will have a very important influence in the race which are Deceuninck, with Sam Bennett and Davide Ballerini they certainly come with intentions of bringing it to a group finish, the presence of Yves Lampaert and Zdenek Stybar will surely at some point deorganize attacks aswell as helping in chasing groups if necessary, the other team is Trek who come in with defending champion Mads Pedersen who should really fancy his chances for tomorrow, and Jasper Stuyven may very well have a similar role to that of the Deceuninck specialists. These teams are interested in attacks and they have the riders to follow the big moves (and then block them), but the presence of sprinters is quite big here, not just about these two teams.
Some riders will want a conservative race, big groups and some luck, these should be the pure sprinters like Cees Bol, Giacomo Nizzolo, Jasper Philipsen, Tim Merlier, Arnaud Démare, Phil Bauhaus and Pascal Ackermann who've got real chances of succeding if they can withstand the beating. Behind them there are some more pure sprinters who don't quite have the same speed but would love a bunch sprint finale like Andre Greipel, Danny van Poppel, John Degenkolb and Timothy Dupont.
Other though are in a complicated position where they need a bunch finish but they also need a hard race to win, include some sprinter/puncheur combos like Michael Matthews, Christophe Laporte, Alexander Kristoff, Bryan Coquard, Sonny Colbrelli and Hugo Hofstetter, all of them with plenty experience in these kind of races.
Attack on Kemmelberg
Attacks will come though, obviously this race isn't all about the Kemmelberg... but that is certainly where the big moves will come, the final ascent of it is the hardest and we should expect explosive attacks. Wout van Aert has to attack, he somehow looks more human after his performance in E3 where Deceuninck dominated. He packs a mean destructive sprint, a massive engine and a big punch, but he will need good allies after Kemmel in order to succeed surely as everyone will attack him if there's a numerous group. But he isn't the only one with the responsability to attack on the climbs, coming in with great form we have the AG2R leaders Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen who looked perfect in E3, they will again be looking to attack the race, and also Sep Vanmarcke is having a very sharp attack and he really needs to split the race early to have a chance to win.
Opportunists
There are some riders though who in my opinion won't really have the legs to attack in Kemmel, but may have the legs to follow or be in closeby groups and then launch a move soon after (or even very close to the finish) which can succeed with the strong tailwind the riders will face. These are in the field of rouleurs, classics specialists, where I include names like Soren Kragh Andersen, Dylan van Baarle and Anthony Turgis who definitely have the quality but won't be marked as the big names. Furthemore I will include Alberto Bettiol, although he hasn't shown the necessary form yet, Nils Pollit who had to miss E3 due to a CV case in the team, Ivan Cortina and Matteo Trentin who had a badly-timed puncture blow up his race on friday.
Prediction Time
⭐ S.Bennett, Lampaert, Démare, Kristoff, GV.Avermaet, Naesen, Nizzolo, Laporte, Matthews, Vanmarcke, van Baarle, SK.Andersen, Turgis
It's a really hard pick to be honest. I don't believe a sprint will decide the race, but looking at the likes of WVA he will be marked and several teams will be working against him. Opportunities will arise and for sure a solo attack will succeed with the wind we've got. Soren Kragh Andersen, a pure powerhous, is my choice.
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