After having Paris-Roubaix cancelled not all the classics specialists will have slept well last night, however it means they'll have extra pressure to take a win in what's left of the "spring" classics and it could turn this Gent-Wevelgem into a race even more exciting than the one we see every year. It's time for the riders targeting Flandres to show how good their training has been over the last few months!
The Route
The route is slightly shorter than last year, it's still quite long this year as it is every year at 232.5 kilometers. Most of them flat though, the first half of the race has only a short gravel sector, in terms of profile there's no other obstacle and should be a smooth ride for most of the contenders.
The first climb of the day will come with 96Km to go in the Scherpenberg and from there on the race should start kicking in as the riders will in quick succession climb the Vidaigneberg, the Baneberg and the Monteberg before the first ascent of the Kemmelberg (the first of two vertents). That passage of the Kemmelberg comes with 84.5Km to go.
After that there's some time to reorganize the troops, put on a chase if some riders escaped during that fast sequence of bergs and position for the three gravel sectors that have been introduced in the last few years in the race, they are all raced without almost any break inbetween and equal to a total of exactly 4 kilometers on dirt roads, the last of which (The Catacombs) finish with 65.6Km to go.
From there on the riders will go back to the Monteberg/Kemmelberg, now summiting with 53Km to go, from which then the riders will head for the final lap of climbs before the flat run-up to Wevelgem.
The final ascent of the Kemmelberg comes with 34.5Km to go. It is ridden via the Oussaire, it's hardest side, the gradients slowly build up into the 20's. It's a brutal cobbled ramp, it's more than enough to create gaps and the final opportunity to split the race on power.
From there on it's pretty straightforward onto Wevelgem. Not technical, ideal roads to chase if needed but roads where a group of powerful riders could fly away and mantain a gap.
The Weather
Theres some slight chances of rain during the day and throughout this night aswell so I expect some slick roads and in the Belgian roads it becomes a bit dangerous and a tricky route. As for the wind it isn't overly strong but it's moderate and coming from the northwest, this is particularly good for those looking to attack as crosswinds over the final run-up the Kemmelberg followed by a significant tailwind most of the way towards Wevelgem.
Will it really be a sprinters' year?
Gent-Wevelgem is known to be the more sprinter-friendly of this set of WT cobbled classics. Despite it's lenght and difficulty ascents, there aren't as many tough climbs to set the difference and the run-up to the line is still quite long in roads that aren't hard to chase in. However the weather this year favours attackers, but fast men are aplenty in here.
Starting with the pure sprinters we have interesting presences like the ones of Caleb Ewan who will lead Lotto alongside John Degenkolb, also Bora who have brought Pascal Ackermann who is an alternative if the race sticks together a bit, Daniel Oss should be the team's main option if it turns hard. Cofidis bring Cristophe Laporte, Sunweb have a strong team with several options, although Tiesj Benoot is the most experienced rider in Cees Bol, Alberto Dainese and Nils Eekhoff the team should have some better options in fast finishers and powerhouse riders, Circus also have a team with several fast men with Danny van Poppel and Timothy Dupont headlining the 5-riders squad.
Regarding more complete sprinters/classics specialists with a sprint, we have last year's winner Alexander Kristoff, he's a rider who specializes in long races pushed from the start with harsh weather, it won't be exactly that tomorrow but it won't be easy by any means and he has Jasper Philipsen as an interesting option aswell, if he hangs on as a leadout or co-leader. There's CCC's Matteo Trentin, always one of the most dangerous riders in any startlist, he's bringing good Tour form and will have a chance to lead solo with GVA out of the bike at the time, although that isn't something that benefits the Italian. Finally the Bahrain duo of Sonny Colbrelli and Ivan Cortina is extremely dangerous, they rode very well in BinkBank lately and both have a quite strong sprint, Colbrelli is strong in punchy climbs and Cortina has a big engine.
Team Depth
As in every classic though the teams with big numbers are usually those licking their lips, and this year the hungry classics blocks won't have Paris-Roubaix so they'll have even more pressure to succeed. In here you really find the big blocks, Deceuninck for a starters of course bringing in a spotless team with Sam Bennett as a possible sprint option, but a squad made for attacking with van Lerberghe and DeClercq has powerhouses to control and set it up early, Asgreen/Stybar/Lampaert/Sénéchal for what I expect will be a flurry of consecutive attacks, they will be in every move it's their obligation, if Bennett makes it through the climbs they also have a strong team to support and bring it back for him. The other main block is the Trek one with Jasper Stuyven, Mads Pedersen and Edward Theuns leading, although they have a very strong and well-built support team including several other riders who themselves can have chances of success if an opportunity arises.
There's Jumbo coming in with one of the season's headliners Wout van Aert, no weak spot he has, he can win in any kind of situation but that can turn into his biggest disadvantage, but the team has a strong block with Mike Teunissen and Amund Jansen as main alternatives who should themselves go on the attack early to make sure that van Aert doesn't have weight on his shoulders to ever chase. EF have defending Ronde champion Alberto Bettiol who has been under the radar this season but would have been building up for this important period, the EF team has over the years built up a really strong team that is top level at this point including Flandrien veteran Sep Vanmarcke, Jens Keukeleire and Sebastian Langeveld, experience is aplenty in this squad and that matters a lot in races hard to read like these.
Ineos have also a big team full of classics riders including Michal Kwiatkowski, Dylan van Baarle and Gianni Moscon, and have Chris Lawless and Owain Doull as two riders who I reckon could be big surprises in the end of this race. NTT have Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michael Valgren who has in the worlds finally showed some great form and is looking like a very exciting prospect to possibly save NTT's season and continuation and a set of sprinters like Walscheid and Rensburg who are well built for this kind of race and can surprise aswell. Finally in this list there's AG2R led by Oliver Naesen, the Belgian is looking in great form and has another year to shoot his shot in the classics, next year he'll have a massive team with him but the one he has right now isn't fragile by any means with a lot of experience and riders like Silvan Dillier and the ever-attacking Alexis Gougeard who can help set him up and also thrive for their chances.
Rogue riders and dangerous outsiders
This is the section of the preview where I included more riders who don't have a big team to support or depth, so they have to race with a lot more tactical sharpness and make sure they make the right moves at the right times. Of course when you are someone like Mathieu van der Poel you almost don't even need a team, the display of power he showed in BinkBank was incredible even for his standards, the kind of riding he does leads me to believe he'll be one of the first to make big moves and put others under pressure instead of the opposite which should be the normal. It's a hard tactics but one he's pulled off because he's mega talented. Others however won't have that ease to create chaos but will look to be a part of it, Nils Pollit of Israel is still one of the most underated riders in the peloton and obviously I do rate him as one of the biggest favourites for the win with a strong sprint and a massive engine, Alexey Lutsenko, Stefan Kung and the bad luck-stricken Niki Terpstra are riders who will have to try their chances solely in agressive moves, preferencially solo as they lack the sprint of their rivals but are dangerous riders always. Finally there's Mitchelton who have Luke Durbridge who is a dangerous rider for an elusive move but on the other side have Luka Mezgec who will be looking to hang on during the race in hopes of being apart of the sprint.
Prediction Time
🌟 S.Bennett, Sénéchal, Lampaert, Cortina, Bettiol, Vanmarcke, Naesen, Valgren, van Baarle
Mathieu van der Poel is the one for me. His form in Binkbank, which later he's said to finally be as he hoped, was at the least scary. Van der Poel has a solid team, but his way of racing is attacking from early and he doesn't loose his punch during the race, I think the teams with depth can't really put him under much pressure and he's capable of dislodging even the best. Besides all of that, he has a very strong sprint, a big engine and isn't shy of working, I think he takes what he deserves tomorrow!
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