Everything turned upside down today with another massive performance by Filippo Ganna, showing off his good form he joined a strong breakaway group that never got a big gap, the group was joined by an attacking trio from the peloton in the penultimate passage through the finish including Turgis and Bettiol, but despite the fast pace to hold off the peloton Ganna took off alone from the group and went on a solo mission that turned successful, being the only rider to hold off the peloton and taking his first win of the season (first of many, certainly). The peloton arrived shortly after lead by Christophe Laporte, with Ackermann finishing third. Tim Wellens kept his lead.
Positive: Ganna seems to have forgotten the time-trial wasn't today. Seriously this win was incredible, one of those solo riders we rarely see succeeding, it'll hurt tonight but he should still be the man to beat for tomorrow. Milan Menten a surprise within the peloton finishing 5th, another name that is new to me.
Negative: I dont think they really had their eyes on the GC, still was rather weird to look at the results and see riders like Bernal, Uran, Mollema, Thomas and Nibali all loosing time. I assume they are here just for the racing miles.
The Route
Tomorrow is the decisive stage of the race, the classic time-trial in Alès that finish atop the Montée de l'Ermitage. It's a fast time-trial until the final climb.
The profile is misleading though, the average is quite low but the climb is incredibly inconsistent. The final 1.8Km are at 7.7% but has 3 little flat sections and several sections above 15%!
The Weather
There will be an increase in wind intensity throughout the afternoon, it will come from the northwest, throughout most of the time-trial it'll come as a crosswind, some areas aren't very exposed. It could favour the riders setting off early but most big contenders should set off in the final spots so honestly I dont think it'll make much of a difference.
The Favourites
This is a very tricky time-trial, the first 8Km are almost pan-flat on fast roads, near the center of Alès there are some tricky corners but taking risks can be very profitable in them. However no-one can go all out in this section because the final climb will be very important and it's one where there won' be much pacing going on, it's a raw irregular climb full of steep ramps and flat sections, form will be very important and it gives the puncheurs and climbers a good chance of taking a win.
The pure time-trialists in here are lead by the world champion Filippo Ganna. If he had stayed in the peloton today he would be with no doubt the man to beat tomorrow. However, his dominance may be affected by the huge effort he's done today all day long, he isn't a fan of the kind of climb he'll have to ride, so there's a small chance that he'll leave the stage win for someone else. Other pure time-trialists that may have a dig tomorrow, some seize the early start, will be Ryan Mullen and Brent van Moer having their first challenge of the season, we've got some rouleurs like Groupama's Alexys Brunel and Benjamin Thomas, two of the riders fighting for the overall in Nils Politt and Mads Wurtz who can ride quite well if they have the form, and finally also Christophe Laporte. Wait Christophe Laporte? Actually when Laporte won the race back in 2019 he even won the time-trial, on an identical route to this year's, I have no idea if he can ride that strong again but he's clearly got the form and may pop another surprise.
However most of the riders that should fill the Top10 are in the realm of those who can climb well, and time-trial well of course too. Ineos, not only do they have Ganna but they have a Michal Kwiatkowski who's ridden quite well this week, Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal, all of them can realistically fight for the win if they have a good day, quality is there and the route is suiting too. From this list several other riders will be brought, for once the leader Tim Wellens is quite a good rider for such a route, he's got the form and the motivation to defend his lead, EF have Alberto Bettiol, last year's winner on this route, and Rigoberto Uran to have a big dig tomorrow, Trek have several riders including Vincenzo Nibali and Bauke Mollema who are very big wildcards for the day, also Mads Pedersen can perhaps fit in the Top10 if he has a good day. Lastly I'll mention Pierre Latour, I didn't think he had good form going on but today he looked solid, don't expect him in the first places but could get on the Top10 aswell.
Prediction Time
⭐ G.Thomas, Bernal, Wurtz, B.Thomas, Uran, Nibali, Mollema
His form is spot on I had said it before the race began. GC was no longer an option because he missed the big move yesterday, but he compensated it by winning today, and, I would say very likely again tomorrow.
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