Stage 3 promised and boy did it deliver! The start was ridden fast, the peloton was constantly on the move and a big group of 17 riders got away after blowing up the peloton. Several of the big GC riders were there, some sprinters, some rouleurs, it was a very mixed group that held off the split peloton and fought between themselves for the stages. It was a short fight though, Tim Wellens flew down the final descent of the stage and took off definetely from the group, taking a massive solo win with 37 seconds over the chasing group (and 3:13 on the peloton), and is the new leader of the race.
Positive: Lotto Soudal rode perfectly today, agressively, with several riders in front and having the form to race to win. Wellens is on track to take the overall if he doesn't suffer any mishap. Most of the riders in the front group had their final GC boosted today with a great performance, specifically I'll mention two names to me unknown until today, Kern Pharma's Marti Marquez and Delko's Clément Carisey.
Negative: EF mainly, but obviously many other riders looking to take the overall missed the important move. They all should know this would happen, if a split appeared they had to shut it down every time, now those riders who were in front today are the ones discussing the GC.
The Route
This is the sole road stage perfectly fit for the puncheurs. Stage 4 is one with not many flat roads, it's always very rolling throughout the day but no hill will really post a big issue for the sprinters. Most of them will likely make it to the final climb even I'd say, now wether they are capable of unleashing that peak power in the hilltop finish is a whole different question, and most will not be there.
The final third of the stage is hard and for sure the teams of the puncheurs will try to make it as hard as possible. As for the hilltop finish itself it's 1.1Km long at 5.5% average gradient, it isn't narrow but it's a painful slow rise to the line, the gradients pinch more right to the finish as the switchback lead to the finish, to almost 10%.
The Weather
The wind will blow!!! After some calm days tomorrow the weather will also become an important factor for the race. Intensity will rise during the day, up to constant 25Km/h (up to 60Km/h gusts) from southeast. There are several changes of direction in the final circuit, until then there's mostly a headwind, but the final third of the stage will be very tense and full of big moves in the peloton for positioning. The final kilometers will have a head/cross-headwind from the left side, I guarrantee there will be a full-fledged race to the bottom of the climb, which is somewhat exposed, and it should be an agressive ramp-up to the line, a sprint is expected.
The Favourites
Tomorrow expect no raids, these big windy days with lots of constant direction changes mean every single rider who wants to battle for the stage and/or the GC will try to be constantly in front. Everyone trying to be in front means a very fast pace in the peloton in specific sections, this should kill breakaway chances and the large portion throughout the stage affected by a headwind should demotivate anyone of trying to do what was done today (obviously the profile isn't as friendly for that situation aswell). The circuit isn't overly hard, the leaders should always have support and we should see a pretty solid peloton making it to the final climb, and the climb isn't suited for attacks, it will come down to a sprint between those that hang on, little gaps may appear in the finish, bonus seconds will also be important for some riders. Of course, I am saying this hoping that crashes don't affect the race, in case they do we may see other scenarios.
So, like stage 1 (although that one ended up being for the sprinters) the favourite list will be a mix of puncheurs that can sprint and sprinters who can climb. Puncheurs, some of them blew up the race today, Tim Wellens took a brilliant win and he will want to defend it tomorrow and actually is a good name to note for the finish, but a lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place very often, and he will probably put more focus in defending his lead than on actually getting the stage. Those who will want to attack it, to claw back some seconds will mostly be those who were in front today, they'll fight for every second, Greg van Avermaet and AG2R were very active in the opening day and I would expect the same thing tomorrow as it's a very suited finish for him, Michal Kwiatkowski and Ineos will surely be the other team trying to push the pace to the limit, perhaps launch some moves as they definetely have the numbers to do it, from that front group there are two outsider puncheurs who need to be watched, Odd Christian Eiking and Michael Gogl, and also Jake Stewart did very well today, he's more towards the sprinter side but he can definitely hang on and perhaps fight for the win. Riders like Uran and Bettiol will surely try to get vengeance tomorrow after a big blow tomorrow, Uran is a real weapon for finishes like this (remember Quebec), Qhubeka have another good card in Simon Clarke, Bora will have Felix Grossschartner, whilst protecting Nils Pollit aswell for the GC tilt. Trek have Vincenzo Nibali and Bauke Mollema who both looked sharp early on today, they didn't make the decisive move, but I bet they will try again tomorrow, although their chances may rely on a different card.
That card is Mads Pedersen, he can climb decently, perhaps the final hundred meters will be too steep for him but he is a good candidate for the win. Pedersen is part of a long list of sprinters who can go over these short hills quite well, his teammate and 2nd on the GC Edward Theuns may himself be in a protected role but I don't see him up there honestly. Christophe Laporte is obviously a rider in form, he is one well suited for a stage like this and is carrying a lot of motivation, Bryan Coquard will have another opportunity to take the win he's been fighting for, although it's unsure what effects today's crash will have on him. I wouldn't expect them to swarm the Top10 like they did on stage 1, tomorrow is a whole different stage, but with the chaos that has been over these stages there is room for someone who's been hit by bad luck to come out of the blue and take a win!
Prediction Time
⭐ Uran, Stewart, Theuns, S.Clarke, Laporte, Grossschartner
I think Greg van Avermaet is the one for tomorrow. Seems to have good form, loves these short uphill finishes, has a strong and motivated team and wants to contest the GC aswell. AG2R have started their season off right and I believe a new step will be taken.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Kommentare