It was as expected a chaotic crash-filled finale unfortunately. The stage was rather calm but the final 15Km we were able to see the opposite, it was a full-gas finish but a crash in the final roundabout brought the end to many riders' chances. From the roundabout chaos some riders emerged, and Timothy Dupont had his lucky day netting an absolutely vital win for him and his new team, beating Pierre Barbier and Christophe Laporte in the sprint, the latter keeps his lead.
Positive: From the chaos emerged two riders who were outsiders but had an absolutely vital result, first with Dupont asserting himself as a thriving sprinter in the PCT peloton, and Pierre Barbier also barely missing out on a season-making win.
Negative: Honestly the organization. I won't go easy because there is no excuse, I don't mean the fact that there were so many crashes because those sadly were expected with the amount of leadout trains searching for the head of the peloton, but the position of the photographers immediately after the finish - like in Mareillaise - is shameful, and quite dangerous. There is no reason for the distance to be bigger, for the sake of everyone's safety, and if it is not changed it's not a matter of "if" but a matter of "when" there'll be a disastrous accident. Lots of riders were badly hit by the falls today and I can only wish for the best of recoveries for all of them individually.
The Route
With over 2000 meters of climbing stage 3 is one that has a lot of different possibilities. On paper it is a day that can very well end in a sprint. Either full bunch sprint or a reduced group sprint as the final 18 kilometers are mostly pan-flat. Until that point it's a day full of rolling hills around Bessèges.
Throughout the day, but specially in the first third there is some climbing, it will suit very well a breakaway attempt or a raid as it's happened in 2017. Lots of scenarios are possible, it's important to know if some of the puncheurs/climbers will save their legs as much as possible for the time-trial or if they will attempt something here.
The last third of the stage is flatter, so for the last few years it has mostly led to a sprint finish in this stage (that has had little variation every year). The finale will again be very tense, there are some important pinch points being the most important one at the flamme rouge.
2.1Km to go there's this patch of road with a sketchy curb, makes me a bit nervous to be honest.
The Weather
No rain, a slight breeze from the south, nothing to note really.
The Favourites
Well there are two scenarios for tomorrow. I will first go over the least likely, yet the most exciting. In both 2016 and 2017 the win has been decided between a group of around 20 riders after there have been splits in the hills surrounding the little town of Bessèges. That isn't to say it will happen again, but as there is the possibility I must talk about it, the first 38Km have 3 climbs that aren't quite easy, and with the presence of world renounded climbers like Egan Bernal, Geraint Thomas, Vincenzo Nibali, Bauke Mollema, Rigoberto Uran, Felix Grossschartner, etc there is a legitimate chance they may try something as they (in my opinion) honestly have nothing to loose, and some of them are here for training and aren't even in a leadership role. Those 3 climbs aren't overly steep, so there is a chance plenty of other riders may attempt to do the same and cause splits, a big group can go ahead and never again be caught. With just 4Km of racing the first and hardest climb of the day begins, expect lots of riders on the rollers in the morning!
With that said we then have the sprint scenario. In case this scenario above doesn't happen, or doesn't succeed, the stage has everything to finish again on a nervous fast bunch sprint like today. Unfortunately, it's a dangerous finish it seems, and as we've seen today luck was more important then leadout. Both Timothy Dupont and Pierre Barbier arguably had very little support in relation to the other big sprinters so that says a lot, good decisions in lines and timing is what was important. Tomorrow, expect similar, it will be chaotic again.
So is it really important to name again all of the strongest leadouts when only one or two will have their work being profitable? I don't think so to be honest, every big sprinter has several powerful riders that can guide them through the finale, but as we've seen with Pedersen today, having lot of riders in front meant he lost his leadout, and then ended up crashing. So I think teams will have to be much more direct tomorrow, don't make big leadouts, don't plan on getting in front and staying there, just have a rider with your leader in the final 2Km otherwise chances are the leadout will be chopped.
With all this said, the favourites for tomorrow remain the same.
Mads Pedersen
Pascal Ackermann
Giacomo Nizzolo
Marc Sarreau
Jake Stewart
Gerben Thijssen
Nacer Bouhanni
Christophe Laporte
Rudy Barbier
Bryan Coquard
Enrique Sanz
Tim Merlier
Is there any order on favouritism? Sure, but not much, some of these names will probably not even be a part of the sprint, and others have hit the deck today.
Prediction Time
⭐ Merlier, Sarreau, Dupont, R.Barbier, P.Barbier, Thijssen, Coquard
A chaotic finish, Nizzolo did very well today within the confusion, he also positioned very well in the opening stage, he launched his sprint too early today and that led him to not get the result, I think he'll be very suited to win again tomorrow.
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