It was a tense finish in Bellegarde, crashes and high speeds marked the run-up to the Côte de la Tour (more antecipated then the Poggio!), and after a bit of a standstill it was Nacer Bouhanni himself who attacked on the harder ramps, followed only by his former teammate Christophe Laporte who then in the following easier gradients counter-attacked and held it to take the first win and leader's jersey, Bouhanni and Pedersen completed the podium in a finish where the sprinters still dominated.
Positive: Personally both Laporte and Bouhanni were great surprises. Riders I had under eye but didn't expect to have such a flyer over the wall, a past rivalry re-ignited. Nibali was the other pleasant surprise in my eye finishing 13th, seems to be much sharper than I thought (his classics and Olympics focus this year may be behind it).
Negative: Michael Valgren has crashed and is likely to abandon the race, not a lucky start in his new team. Despite the crashing gaps have been counted for all but one riders. Also Sport Vlaanderen opted to not begin the race with suspicion of a positive CV case in the staff.
The Route
Tomorrow's stage will be a more proper opportunity for the pure sprinters, despite having some more lumps in the profile it is a day solely for the fast men.
The finish is flat, it's not very wide and has a roundabout in the final kilometer but it can't be considered a technical finish at all, smooth sailing for the teams that play it off right.
The Weather
The wind won't be strong but can be noticed, coming from the southeast. There will be a crosswind from the right in the final exposed kilometers where the best leadouts will KNOW they must hide on the left side of the road, and push forward before the roundabout that comes with around 500 meters to the finish line. Teams who want to win need to have this studied. After the roundabout the urbanization will block the wind.
The Favourites
This will be a pure sprinter day no doubt about it. Too early in the season to see breakaway wins, roads aren't hard to chase, no meaningful climbs to disturb the sprinters, no uphill start so it's easy to control who goes in front. It's all about positioning but above all strong legs tomorrow (much like today and, of course, all sprints).
These will be the leading leadouts:
Pedersen-Theuns-Kirsch-Mullen
Ackermann-Meeus-Pollit-Gamper-Postlberger
No doubt these two teams will be in front the most, Bora has some new names that perhaps don't have as much experience in this kind of job but they have the power no doubt to put Ackermann in pole position for the sprint. As for Trek they need no introduction, no-one knows it better then them, Theuns/Kirsch/Mullen are brilliant at this duty and Pedersen has the power (and the form, it seems) to win. Several other riders with strong leadouts will follow, but these may struggle to get that top placement. Giacomo Nizzolo has a great team but I reckon that train needs more racing to function perfectly (but I'm sure he can win either ways), Tim Merlier won't have as strong of a leadout but he aswell can win without being a surprise.
And lots of outsiders can and will pop in the middle of the aforementioned names. First and foremost the stars of today, Christophe Laporte should be very motivated, he himself has a whole lot of powerful riders ready to set him up including new addition Drucker who should boost up his chances of a perfect position, as for Bouhanni well it really is another great leadout with names like Swift, Welten and McLay ready to do the job. From there on, plenty other opportunists will pop, there's Marc Sarreau who has a team full of powerhouses, Jake Stewart will be Groupama's option, Direct Energie have 3 riders that can be up there but they should play for one card and for sure Edvald Boasson Hagen will be it, Lotto Soudal have Gerben Thijssen who is perhaps the biggest wildcard, Degenkolb and Oldani should be his main men, Danny van Poppel will lead Intermarché's equally strong team, Bryan Coquard will have the B&B Hotels' jersey represented, Eduard-Michael Grosu will have Delko's, Timothy Dupont will be showing off his new Bingoal jersey and Enrique Sanz will be Kern Pharma's spearhead.
The message is clear, pretty much every team has an option for the sprint. With the lack of one of the big dominant sprinters, this is as open as it could be, and at least a dozen riders can realistically take the win. Expect confusion, a lot of big hitters missing the sprint and, I hope to be wrong, more crashes.
Prediction Time
⭐ Thijssen, Sarreau, van Poppel, Grosu, Coquard, Dupont
Mads Pedersen in my name for tomorrow. Leadout experience is important tomorrow, Trek is the best at it despite a full startlist of strong trains, it's a flat pure sprint and Pedersen has the legs for it, besides the form he seems to be showing.
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