The Route
The opening stage is one with a mostly pan-flat profile with a series of loops around the town of Bellegarde near Nimes. Despite being a stage fitted for the sprinter the final drag to the line may prove an issue as the Côte De La Tour is tackled, a cruel feature for the heavyweight riders.
The final 600 meters have an average gradient of 6.3% but that is misleading, at it's steepest point the road goes above 20% (before a false-flat final hundred meters). It is a very narrow road up to the finish essentially with far from perfect tarmac. Positioning at the base is absolutely crucial specially with riders peeling off the front of the pack. It's short enough for a bunch finish but a sharp elusive attack may succeed, pure anaerobic effort.
Around 400 meters to the finish, gradients pinch way above those 6%.
The Weather
Normal temperatures and the wind should be noticeable but not strong, fading throughout the stage, it'll come from the southeast, the final climb isn't exposed so it shouldn't make a difference in the stage honestly.
The Favourites
This finish will be proper exciting. Last year it was a crosswind-blown stage, Brunel attacked in the flat roads before the final climb and held off, whilst Cosnefroy and Planckaert stormed off from the chasing group in the final hundred meters. It's a sprint in the brutal ramps essentially, it's around a minute-long all out effort, but the gradients get really rough so the pure sprinters may not be able to stick in front, some more lightweight sprinters may do so though.
So there are essentially two categories which are the sprinters who can ride these steep pitches, and the puncheurs. Firstly let's talk about those sprinters. Ackermann, Barbier, Merlier, don't count with them. Some others, the likes of Pedersen, Sarreau, Degenkolb, Thijssen, Bouhanni, van Poppel, Nizzolo, Laporte, they are all jokers, I've seen them all have very good performances, but they need their absolute best level and perfect positioning to be able to contest the stage. Those you should count more are riders like Coquard who you've seen climbing really well in Marseille, he really likes and is well suited for these kind of hills, plus Quentin Pacher who is equally as sharp but obviously doesn't have the same sprint, Chris Lawless didn't show the form but he is someone who can also do these hills as fast as the competition here, there could be some other names surprising but again it will be alot up to positioning in the entrance of the final climb.
Regarding the puncheurs the list is also quite big. You'll get Michal Kwiatkowski as a man who in best form would be hard to beat tomorrow, the question lies on how well he's doing at the moment, you've got the obvious GVA card, I don't think it's a perfect finish for him he doesn't like these steep finishes as much as he would a 5-10% climb effort, Lotto riders both Wellens and Kron are great cards to have, both explosive and riders who can truly get up these walls brilliantly. There's some less explosive riders that can do hilltop finishes like this really well though like Grossschartner who won on a similar finish last year in Burgos, there's Bauke Mollema, EF have both Uran and Bettiol who can definitely be up there aswell, Qhubeka have Simon Clarke and Michael Gogl, Odd Christian Eiking should be another nice name, the French Anthony Turgis and Anthony Perez should be two dangerous outsiders aswell who can definetely ride something like this with the best.
Whatever happens one thing I can assure you, positioning is absolutely key tomorrow, there is no room for mistakes.
Prediction Time
⭐ Nizzolo, Bouhanni, Kron, Uran, Bettiol, S.Clarke, Turgis, Perez, Bernal
Bryan Coquard is my call to win this first stage. He looks to be in good form, his lightweight stature will come in very handy when it comes to getting through the wall, he is very explosive and is the man to beat in this first stage.
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