Time for some serious cobbles! The Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont are back, the E3 classic is one that every year is a very important step in preparation for the Ronde van Vlaanderen containing several of it's vital sections, and a very hard route around Harelbeke.
The Route
204 kilometers in Flandres is almost as good as it gets throughout the season, E3 is the perfect preparation race for the Ronde van Vlaanderen, it goes through the same roads and has it's crucial part in the classic Oude Kwaremont/Paterberg combination, only here it's in the opposite order. Ok let's look at the route a little better:
175Km to go - 1300m; 3.8%; cobbles
173 - 1500m cobbles
160.5 - 2300m cobbles
Opening section on the race, breakaway should be set already during this time, if not it can allow a bit stronger group to get away, some riders looking to antecipate attacks or plant riders in front.
116 - 1800m; 5.8%
111.5 - 1200m; 7.9%
103.5 - 500m; 5.8%; cobbles
94.5 - 1000m; 8.5%
84 - 800m; 7.3%
80 - 600m; 6.8%; cobbles
The race begins with 116 kilometers to go with the quick succession of bergs begins, several quite reputable sections in it like La Houppe, Kortekeer which antecedes the Taaienberg which usually splits up the race quite a bit over the top, it's only 80Km away from the finish and usually important tactics are already played at this time. It's followed by some more bergs and cobbled sectors including the Eikenberg with 61.5Km to go.
71.5 - 1000m; 5.8%
66.5 - 600m; 6.8%
61.5 - 1200; 5.0%; cobbles
55.5 - 2000m cobbles
The race then has, for around 9 kilometers a little resting period where the teams will reorganize. Those with riders in front will sit in, get their breath back, feed and prepare for the final sectors. Those who are in urge to chase will have here a good opportunity to use the remaining domestiques to reel in attacks.
46 - 800m; 5.1%
42 - 400m; 13.1%; cobbles
The Paterberg with 42Km to go, whatever happens there are never many riders left in front after this one.
37.5 - 2500m; 3.7%; cobbles
Last true chance to destroy a group by power, the Oude Kwaremont summits with 37.5Km to go, it's quite a distance to the finish but no doubt this climb will be attacked hard because it's the final decisive sector, after it's summit everything will reorganize again for the finish.
30.5 - 1000m; 7.1%
22 - 2000m cobbles
19.5 - 700m; 4.9%
Posteriorly there is another couple of bergs and a long but smooth cobbled sector where power can dictate difference, but it won't be easy to do so if the main cobbled sectors didn't do it. The last 19.5Km are on smooth paved flat roads, ideal to chase, if there are legs for it...
The entrance in Harelbeke comes with around 5 kilometers to go, fast covered roads ahead, completely flat, but with some opportunities to attack if there's a group in front. The final straight comes with 400 meters to go and it is wide enough for any kind of sprint.
The Weather
Strong strong wind tomorrow from the southwest. This is dangerous, right from the gun there will be crosswinds, the first 50 kilometers will be quite dangerous in exposed roads and all before the important sections of the race. Paterberg will have a tailwind, Kwaremont will have a crosswind, and after those section you've got it... Crosswinds all the way to Harelbeke, it will be insane!
Sprinter/Non-Sprinter won' matter, all about surviving
Usually in these races it's always important to mention the classics riders that can sprint, the sprinters that can ride through the bergs in front. Honestly tomorrow that won't matter, we've got Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel on the startlist and they are the two strongest sprinters from within the classics riders and, you guessed it, probably the two strongest puncheurs aswell (Alaphilippe won't be at the start so I reckon you'll agree). Besides, the race will be heavily marked by crosswinds in both ends, it can break apart in the first hour of racing, and collaboration after the cobbled sectors won't be in any way easy. Nothing will be easy in fact, and the race will be completely broken apart at it's latest when we go over the Paterberg. The day will be about surviving the splits as much as possible and for most, hang on the wheels as much as possible to get a strong result.
As Oliver Naesen once told me "You should know where and when you need to do the effort to fight for position, and especially when you can relax a bit. For this you need to know the roads by heart", tomorrow this will be even more important because for sure the teams didn't reckon the early part of the stage, and the locals will know how to deal with the crosswinds very well. AG2R duo Oliver Naesen and Greg van Avermaet obviously come to mind early on, having the numbers, a strong team and a lot of experience they should be satisfied with the conditions, to this I can add some more riders and Sep Vanmarcke who's also been carrying some mean form lately and should still be with quite strong legs. With this said years of racing on these roads will be important, you've obviously got some very big names, teams with numbers like Deceuninck coming in with Yves Lampaert, Zdenek Stybar, Kasper Asgreen and Florian Sénéchal, their depth may not be good if there are splits early on because there won't be a fix leader or 2, however in the right situation they can profit a lot from it, surely they will have Davide Ballerini aswell in a protected role seeing how his sprint in the end can be a powerful weapon, if he has the perfect day. You have Trek coming in with the usual strong classics block lead by Milano-Sanremo winner Jasper Stuyven who must be with sky-high confidence and form, backed up by Mads Pedersen, you've got DSM who have a similar situation with Soren Kragh Andersen a very dangerous wildcard and Tiesj Benoot who has here a nice chance to get a strong result as the race should be quite selective, there's Ineos with Tom Pidcock and Dylan van Baarle, a weird mix but I reckon they both have the skillset to perform really well and finally UAE who've got Alexander Kristoff and Matteo Trentin headlining the team, always looking for a conservative race so that the Norwegian has a chance of taking an important win in a sprint like he has in the past.
There are some more names with quite some experience on these roads, solo leaders, riding under the shadow of the big teams they may have a great opportunity like Nils Pollit and the Bora squad and also Michael Matthews who returns to the classics.
Those are, in my fair opinion, those that have a chance to take a win. There are however plenty riders who can finish in the Top10, some who've got experience and are used to be there like Stefan Kung who will be looking for an opportunity to go solo obviously, there are the EF riders, Alberto Bettiol is quite a strong card but he doesn't look to be in the best form, the team's got more cards to play though in Sebastian Langeveld and Jens Keukeleire, and some young guns in Stefan Bissegger and Jonas Rutsch who I see as quality classics riders in the future, there's Ivan Garcia Cortina leading Movistar and Lotto Soudal will be headlined by John Degenkolb and Philippe Gilbert, but also youngster Florian Vermeersch can surprise.
Some wildcards may appear though like Sonny Colbrelli who at times gets a solid result in these races, there are some riders who performed really well last year like Direct Energie's Anthony Turgis and Qhubeka's Dimitry Claeys who finished 4th and 6th in Flandres last year, Qhubeka also has Victor Campenaerts who's been riding really well in the cobbles classics so far. Furthermore there are some quality riders in Intermarche's team like Aimé de Gendt and Loic Vliegen who'll love the climbs, Arjen Livyns for Bingoal and I'd cheekily add Rasmus Tiller of Uno-X as a decent joker.
Prediction Time
⭐ Naesen, Vanmarcke, Lampaert, Asgreen, Ballerini, GV.Avermaet, Naesen, Pedersen, Pidcock, Kristoff, Politt, Matthews, Turgis
Mathieu van der Poel is for me the rider who will take it. He's got brilliant form, his careless style of riding means he is so rarely caught behind any move, he'll race agressively, thrive in the winds and if necessary, win in a group sprint.
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