The cobbled classics have it's end near but beforehand we've still got some more beautiful and hard races to go, the Dwars door Vlaanderen is one of them and brings in a strong field coming in for their final preparation for the big one this Sunday.
The Route
184 kilometers on the menu, relatively easy distance for a big classic but it also means we can have more explosive racing. Starting in the town of Roeselare this is a purely Flandrien classic that goes around some of the region's most famous bergs and puts to the front some of the secondary climbs.
The first half of the route presents little challenges with very little climbing in the route, the show will start on the second half! With 70.5Km to go we have the Knokteberg which will open things up surely as it antecedes the hardest section of the race with comes with the quick succession of the Steenbeekdries and the Taaienberg which summits with 57.5 kilometers to go. In Harelbeke it was decisive as Deceuninck broke the race apart in it, the kilometer afterwards is dangerous aswell as the peloton will be stretched out and plenty riders will be on their limit.
From there on the race isn't as selective which means the specialists will have had to attack, from there on it's terrain mostly for opportunists and teams with depth, who can seize the vast amount of rolling roads and occasional sectors, both uphill and on cobbles, to make their moves. With 35 kilometers to go the Knokteberg is the last point where the differences can be made with pure power.
From there on you've got some cobbled sectors, the Nokereberg with 10.5Km to go is the final climb, and you've got two short flat sectors afterwards finishing with 7.5 and 7Km to go respectively, not hard, the differences will have been made until then.
The entrance in Waregem is quite different in comparison to Gent-Wevelgem, where those looking to attack just didn't have an opportunity. Here it's different, lots of roundabouts, sharp turns, very good roads for opportunists, with the finishing straight a mere 400 meters in lenght.
The Weather
Temperatures above 20 degrees and just a minor breeze, from the south, completely different to the weather of last week, it won't be as selective.
Mathieu van der Poel card
I believe Mathieu van der Poel will have a big saying in the race (obviously) but in a different way than normal. I don't think he will be riding agressively, but instead controlling the race in favour of Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen, as he has done this season (successfully, I must add), if they don't want that sprint scenario they wouldn't have brought the two sprinters here. The pebble in their shoe is Deceuninck though who have taken a beating on VDP/WVA in Harelbeke, and they may want to repeat that scenario again tomorrow which would make Alpecin's mission a whole lot harder. They bring in Julian Alaphilippe, Kasper Asgreen, Yves Lampaert and Florian Sénéchal are all here and they have a game plan, destroy the race and attack the race constantly, on the safe side they also have Davide Ballerini who in a sprint would have a big role.
In case it would come down to a sprint there are several big names who would be licking their lips, they came here for a reason. Groupama have Stefan Kung who should be tomorrow eyeing more the support for Arnaud Démare, we've got the same scenario with Nils Politt and Pascal Ackermann for Bora, in UAE we've got Alexander Kristoff looking finally for an opportunity to take a win and having Matteo Trentin to back him up, Cofidis have Elia Viviani who finally took his first win in the team and seems to be finding some good form like his teammate Christophe Laporte who seems to have everything set to be a main favourite but somehow hasn't performed that well in the cobbles so far, finally also Giacomo Nizzolo who had a brilliant performance in GW finishing right behind Wout van Aert.
Furthermore, there are plenty more sprinters who would benefit from a controled race, who don't have pressure to work or attack the race but can really benefit from that scenario to get a good result in a big race. That includes some sprinters that are quite suited to rough classics like Sonny Colbrelli and Danny van Poppel who rode very well on Gent-Wevelgem, Israel duo Hugo Hofstetter and Tom van Asbroeck for Israel, Bryan Coquard for B&B Hotels and Timothy Dupont for Bingoal. There are some more fast men, at their best definitely they aren't pure sprinters but I must consider them this currently like David Dekker who will be leading Jumbo-Visma in absence of Wout van Aert and Mike Teunissen, Alberto Dainese who may have freedom within DSM and Luka Mezgec who is BikeExchange's best card.
Who will attack?
Besides Deceuninck there are several teams who will have to attack to win the race. At this point there's so much quality that sometimes we forget the immense quality in the other classics specialists, we've got Milano-Sanremo winner Jasper Stuyven coming in leading Trek, Tim Wellens and Florian Vermeersch leading a so far non-successful Lotto Soudal looking to turn their luck around, like DSM who've got Soren Kragh Andersen and Tiesj Benoot who have so far also missed the big moves in the classics. On this field of riders who have a lot to prove on the cobbled classics campaign you've got EF who is clearly out of form for now, perhaps Michael Valgren could turn around their luck though, and also Ivan Cortina who's been riding well but results haven't been coming in for Movistar.
There are others though who have been in terrific form and getting strong results like AG2R who are looking very set and bring in their leading duo of Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen who have another chance to get a really important win for the team, there's Ineos who have Dylan van Baarle and Tom Pidcock coming in flying form, I think the Dutchman will have a better opportunity in RVV but his engine makes him a very dangerous rider if he's caught out alone in front. Finally, Anthony Turgis leading Direct Energie also coming in with brilliant form and also has a strong sprint if it's necessary.
Prediction Time
⭐ Philipsen, Ballerini, Démare, Kristoff, Nizzolo, Stuyven, SK.Andersen, GV.Avermaet, Naesen, van Baarle, Pidcock, Turgis
I'm going for a win for Deceuninck, who will smash the race and then attack in turns, one will surely succeed and I'm going with Yves Lampaert for that decisive move.
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