The Tour has passed and so have the Olympics, it's time to return to the classic calendar with racing in Spain kicking off once more, at WorldTour level that is with the Classica San Sebastian, a race for the puncheurs with a classic and rough route that always delivers.
The Route
222 kilometers in distance and 4000 meters in climbing in the Basque Country, it's not an easy task, never was but this year we may finally see some agressive racing because of a route change.
The first half of the race, well let's say the first 150Km will be to set things up, none of the main teams will be making moves, just try to save their legs in what is quite rolling terrain until they reach the final set of climbs.
There won't be big moves here but teams will likely be setting up riders, likely so that they can be there after Erlaitz, possibly attacking. This one isn't hard but it's frequently exposed to strong winds, if the pace is high damage can be done, but mostly just to shed some riders from the peloton, it summits with 62.5Km to go and leads to a descent and short flat run-up to the hardest climb of the day.
It's closer to the finish this year, instead of 70 it's now 42.5Km away from the finish, it's much closer and should further motivate attacks to come as it's a 3.8Km climb at a constant 10.6%, it's really difficult and may see dangerous moves from the climbers, furthermore it features another 3.5Km of false-flat after it's summit which are ideal for opportunists to make their moves whilst the peloton doesn't organize itself. There will then be a descent and 15Km of flat roads until the riders find the final climb, only one ascent of Murgil this year.
Spain's alternative to Mur de Huy. It's a hard climb and one that's ridden conservatively until the final 800 meters, the narrow roads always lead to a massive fight for positioning at the bottom, and then it becomes quite explosive towards the end, not a long climb but for those who have the legs they can make the vital difference here, summiting with just 7.5Km to go.
And it's quickly followed by almost 5 kilometers of descent, fast, not very technical but definitely one where the attackers can easily keep their gap, one that will leave them with 2.5Km to the finish in the streets of San Sebastian.
The Weather
Slight chances of rain and you know how it works in the Basque Country, if you're not pleased with the weather just wait 5 minutes. Rain showers are likely but very unpredictable how strong or what influence they'll have, the wind however should have more influence coming from the northwest, a crosswind in Jaizkibel, tailwind in Erlaitz (although headwind over the summit), headwind towards Murgil, and a tailwind in the descent after Murgil, any solo move will likely succeed at this point of the race. Riders should have all these points memorized and adjust their strategy throughout the day.
Keep it controlled and attack Murgil
San Sebastian is the Spanish Fleche Wallone essentially, where in this new route it's all about Murgil, and you will never see attacks from the main riders before it, the peloton will furiously enter the final climb, settle down, and then in the final hundreds of meters it will kick off. That's how it usually goes, this year it may be different though, but more on that later...
Many riders should still be working and waiting for that scenario, having the explosivity as their main weapon here alongside a strong sprint in several cases. Julian Alaphilippe is the textbook candidate for this classic, suits him in every bit, if he carries good legs from the Tour he is the man to beat, Deceuninck will be trying to control the race and looking for alliances to keep it all together into that climb, and he should find it in some teams like UAE who have Diego Ulissi coming in fresh from a win in Sardegna (and youngster Juan Ayuso as an absolute wildcard), Dan Martin leading in Israel and an expert on short efforts on steep ramps, the duo of Ruben Guerreiro and Simon Carr leading EF, there are Movistar being led by a young duo of Matteo Jorgenson and Gonzalo Serrano, Warren Barguil who's leading Arkea and doesn't really have the numbers to play strategically early on, and riders who can definitely do these climbs well and profit from a strong sprint like Robert Stannard, Nick Schultz and Quinten Hermans, who will come in with no responsabilities within the competition even though they can't be carried to the line.
Attack in Jaizkibel and Erlaitz
Oh yes, as the tradition looms, many will be looking to take advantage of the fact that these two climbs are closer to the finish, will have favourable wind on them and well, the amount of climbers present here means that there will surely be attempts. Attacks on Erlaitz and right after are expected, I expect Ineos to try and blow it up, with Egan Bernal, Adam Yates and Daniel Martinez in the lineup they absolutely have to make big moves there on the longer climbs and playing with numbers, and alongside them they should have quite a lot of big riders following along.
If you're talking numbers you should definitely look at Bora coming in with a big squad having Wilco Kelderman and Patrick Konrad as the men to mostly consider (the latter definitely being saved), the trio of Ide Schelling, Giovanni Aleotti and Matteo Fabbro should also try to bust the race open aswell as it's their best chance to win and have a good collective result. But you'll also find this in other teams, Bahrain for example have the return of Mikel Landa, he and Mark Padun are pure climbers so it's not their kind of terrain but they can surely have a dig, and it should also be too hard for Matej Mohoric but you never know with the Tour he had, you have Trek who have Bauke Mollema as one of the past winners and definitely the kind of rider who can win a race like this from an opportunist attack and also Giulio Ciccone as an explosive climber, you have Jonas Vingegaard leading Jumbo-Visma who should also try to have an interesting mix of riders in contention, and as for BikeExchange they have Simon Yates who can be a part of these moves as they look to save Schultz and Stannard.
Inside the Bus
This morning I talk to...
#17 Larry Warbasse - Won't be an easy day Larry, we're not bringing a certain leader so you have a free role along most of the guys, try to get in a breakaway, survive as long as possible, maybe help in a sneaky move if one of them moves from behind, get some good racing in as more goals are coming soon.
#151 Koen Bouwman - We've got plenty options Koen and today we attack, Jonas comes from the Tour and should be the man to protect here but you will have a somewhat free role, alongside Antwan, Chris and Sam you all have the freedom to attack in that duo of ascents as long as you have good legs. If you struggle, support the guys, we have to make the race very hard, Jonas can't sprint so the less riders at the finish the better, and the way you've ridden in the Giro I do expect you to be able to do some damage.
#236 Diego Rosa - You've got some good experience Diego and that will be very valuable, it's your kind of route but today we help Warren, last few seasons he's been doing really well in the classics and this one suits him quite well, he hasn't shown great legs lately but he's our best option. Also it's a bit rough for Matis but he's motivated and he's just won in Castilla y Leon so definitely make sure you help him out where needed aswell.
Prediction Time
⭐ Vingegaard, Moscon, D.Martin, Ciccone, Guerreiro, Martinez, Landa, Serrano, Q.Hermans
Julian Alaphilippe is the obvious guess though and with good reason, Deceuninck will be coming in with a good team and I expect him to have good form, the final climb suits him perfectly and so does most of the route, I believe alliances will help everything stay together and the Frenchman will strike.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
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