We've seen some cobbled classic action so far these past few weeks but tomorrow the acitivity intensifies with the Nokere Koerse, the first semi-classic of a trio of days designed for the classics specialists and if the opportunity comes, for the sprinters.
The Route
193.5 kilometers on the menu in a race similar to Le Samyn, but a bit more gentle. The race is rolling throughout the whole race still there's only a little over 1000 meters of climbing so you can understand that there really isn't any serious climb, the main challenges come from the cobbled sectors in the final circuit and the usual flurry of attacks that happen every year. The riders will race through the Nokereberg 5 times and will ride the final lap 4 times, let's take a closer look at it.
This is the map of the final circuit. 30.5 kilometers in distance, it features a small cobbled sector at it's beginning in the Herlegemstraat before a long flat ride through the fields, before the race gets to it's decisive part. With 11.5Km to go there's the Lange Ast sector, a small uphill cobbled road which will setup for the coming sectors, the first one beginning with 7Km to go and is 1600 meters long, it's the Huisepontweg, a smooth but narrow road with a smooth section on the side (that will hopefully be blocked), but attacks can come for sure and quickly after this the Kouterstraat will present a rougher and even narrower road, just 300 meters long but it's on total almost 2Km of cobbles finishing with just 4.5Km to go. If there is a decisive attack, it'll surely come there, however the race usually finishes in a sprint and there is time to reel back attacks after the sectors, the leadout to the sprint will be tricky, firstly because most teams will be severely reduced, secondly because there's a big pinch point with around 1Km to go which will make it tense, but in the end it's in the final grind up to the Nokereberg that the race will be won.
The Weather
Horrible Flandrien weather! Although rain is not very likely it may appear, but the whole race will be marked by cloudy skies, a lot of cold and a lot of wind. It will be a constant 20Km/h or above with stronger gusts coming from the north. There will be a lot of crosswind in the final circuit, most of the cobbled sectors in fact will have it, the exit of the final one will have a block headwind which doesn't favour attackers but the run-up to the line has more tailwind, if a rider happens to get to that turn with around 3.5Km to go with a gap it's very dangerous. As for the sprint it should be more covered from the buildings, but if it's felt it'll come from the right.
The Sprinters
The list of contenders for this race is absolutely massive and that's one of the best things about these smaller cobbled classics, having a large contingent of WT 2nd-tier sprinters and quite a lot of PCT sprinters in search of important points and a big win. I can divide the riders that way, representing the World Tour teams you've got for a starters Deceuninck who come with an interesting Mark Cavendish which for the first time since writing in Echelons I'm considering a candidate to win a race, honestly he looked good in Samyn, I think the team will be protecting him in case it goes for a sprint but Jannik Steimle is an option as valid, with Josef Cerny a potential attacker. The list includes some men like Marc Sarreau who will be leading AG2R, Szymon Sajnok for Cofidis, Jake Stewart for Groupama, Rudy Barbier for Israel, Gerben Thijssen for Lotto, Alberto Dainese for DSM, Edward Theuns for Trek, Juan Sebastian Molano for UAE, and some teams who have multiple options even in the sprinting field like Bora who've got Martin Laas, Matthew Walls and Jordi Meeus all as quality sprinters, Ineos have got Owain Doull and Ethan Hayter, Intermarche have got Danny van Poppel and Ricardo Minali and Qhubeka have got Max Walscheid and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg.
The PCT contingent isn't behind though and features some of the main favourites too with Jasper Philipsen perhaps the headliner representing Alpecin, Timothy Dupont leading Bingoal, Jens Debusschere for B&B Hotels, Amaury Capiot for Arkea, Kristoffer Halvorsen for Uno-X, Delko with a duo of sprinters in Eduard-Michael Grosu and Pierre Barbier and final Enzo Wouters who should be Tarteletto's leader for tomorrow.
Can someone else get a sneaky win?
However the strong tailwind near the finish may turn the race on it's head. It's not the most likely scenario but it is a possibility. I don't think a decisive attack could come from pure power but rather from an opportunist move, right after the cobbles sectors before the teams reorganize, and obviously this list would include some riders mentioned above but also some others that don't quite have the sprint, and some who must attack in the cobbles sections too for a chance to win. The presence of Sep Vanmarcke is interesting as he's shown brilliant form this season but hasn't capitalized, he'll be the main threat in the cobbled sectors, there are some more powerhouses like Alexis Gougeard, Jelle Wallays, Lukas Postleberger, Alexys Brunel, Alex Kirsch, Mikkel Bjerg, Arjen Lyvins, Jonas Rickaert, Damien Gaudin and Rasmus Tiller who could all be THE rider with the decisive move, interestingly enough Jhonatan Narvaez is also on the startlist, quality quality rider but I don't think the race is fit for him, nonetheless will be one to watch.
Prediction Time
⭐ Vanmarcke, Meeus, Hayter, R.Barbier, P.Barbier, D.van Poppel, Sarreay, Laas, Molano, Halvorsen, Walscheid
I expect a sprint finish in the Nokereberg as usual and for the win I recognize the chances are spread between multiple sprinters, but DSM's Alberto Dainese is actually my favourite to take it!
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