It was an action packed day in the Dauphine, in the first half sadly the day was marked by several abandons, of Bernal who didn't start because of back pain, then crashes took Buchmann and Kruijswijk out of the race, and Roglic and Pinot also went down. It had the promise to blow up, but after pushing and having perfect setting Bahrain didn't move, and so the GC race was left for tomorrow. The stage in the meantime had been decided upfront as Lennard Kamna took the stage after going solo in the final climb, David de la Cruz and Julian Alaphilippe.
Positive: After his leader abandoned Bora at least managed to take a stage win, no real gains from anyone else today pretty much.
Negative: Bernal, Buchmann, Kruijswijk all abandoning, Pinot and Roglic crashing but didn't loose anything except some skin. I'll put a bad note on Quintana and Landa, they lost their chance of winning the race, subjectively I didn't understand their decision, even if they were suffering they just won't get this chance again.
The Route
And the final stage is a loop around the Alpine city once again, the Côte de Domancy starts off the day already with hard gradients and I'd expect raids to happen in the brutal Romme/Colombiere combination. Between these three climbs there's 19Km at over 8% of gradient. JUST in these.
Then follows the Col des Aravis again after the previous day, then some more climbing and descending into Domancy once again, and then the final climb to Megève but differently, now with around 14Km of climbing, slightly but a suiting finnish to the race. The finish is I believe in the same spot as today.
The Weather
Again there's a little threat of rain, there are some dangerous descents so the riders will need to be careful, something today didn't seem to happen.
The Favourites
Well there's a lot of mixed feelings over this stage, because some tactics so far have confused me. Quintana and Landa specially seemed to have been saving themselves in the race so far and the only thing I can assume is that they're willing to give it an all-in tomorrow in Colombiere. But, to be honest I'm not confident of that, and even if they do they will have Roglic and Kuss on their wheel. If Roglic were to loose the race he would've today, tomorrow he's safe as Jumbo looked rock solid today even with Kruijswijk abandoning.
So what does that mean? Breakaway lottery!
Today several of the riders who have a chance have burnt themselves so it's a good idea to avoid those. Of course there can be exceptions, I'll put Julan Alaphilippe in as the rough climbs come in early and he may make it through in good position, and then shine in the final climbs. Warren Barguil, Pierre Rolland and Romain Bardet are the French contingent, they are all agressive riders who will with certainty move tomorrow and will want to be in the break, looking at the riders that finished in the pack today is always a good idea and although he isn't distant in the GC I would put Pavel Sivakov as a big favourite to win, if not him then I would love to see Castroviejo giving it a shot he's been flying or who knows Thomas could shake off what's been a very hidden return to racing.
I'll throw EF in there, I really expect to see something out of them, Martinez has been doing great but in Uran/Carthy/Higuita/Kangert they have real chances of putting some big power in front and try to take a win, Mitchelton have Adam Yates who is for sure targeting this one, and then also Astana who have Lutsenko and Gorka Izagirre I reckon, Nicholas Roche could do well, Movistar may try with Mas or Valverde it's the least they can do, and Pierre Latour may be my last card to throw for tomorrow. There's more names who'll be there, maybe even winning names outside of this list, but I think I've summed up most who have a shot of being in front and winning. I won't forget my pick of today, Reichenbach ;)
Or yeah Roglic wins again, I don't need to write this but it's what I've done everyday so why not again...
Prediction Time
⭐ Pinot, Quintana, Uran, Bardet, Alaphilippe, Mas, Reichenbach, Castroviejo, Roche
I'll go with Adam Yates tomorrow, these last two days weren't obvious but race situation dictated a breakaway win. Tomorrow again isn't certain as Roglic should be attacked, but I don't see anyone breaking the Jumbo beehive, so it's a breakaway for me. Mitchelton said they were coming for stage hunting, Yates hasn't looked sharp, but he is very smart, and will want to seize his chance tomorrow.
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