It was a day for the break and Davide Formolo capitalized on it! The Italian attacked on the Madeleine from the break and went solo for a very long time, just managing to hold the chasing group. In there it was a calm stage for the favourites, the Madeleine was taken easily and the final climb by pace, the only gaps were there in the final sprint pretty much with Roglic taking second and Pinot third, with Bernal loosing some seconds.
Positive: Formolo took a really special win, such a big solo win doesn't come often! Pogacar also doing better today, Bardet and Rolland climbing well today too.
Negative: Bernal loosing a few seconds there isn't a big deal but it's not at all a good sign if he wants to contest the race, Quintana also lost those few seconds there in the end.
The Route
Stage 4 is the first one of the "weekend in Megève" stages and to be honest I don't know which one is harder, but for sure this one has it's hardest spot nearer to the finish. There's over 4600 meters of climbing packed into merely 150 Kilometers and the profile shows it very well, the start is absolutely brutal with 4 categorized climbs in Col de Plain Bois, Croix Fry, Aravis and the Côte d'Héry-sur-Ligine. With only 70Km of riding the riders already have all of these in the pocket before descending and moving onto the next climb.
The Montée de Bisanne has it's summit with 34Km to go and is 12.7Km at 7.7%, a very constant climb where attacks are to be expected and after there's a small descent that will lead into the slight rise to Megève.
It isn't a very hard climb, specially for the startlist we have they'll all fly over it. If there are no gaps in Bisanne they won't appear here for sure, unless Roglic attacks that is.
The Weather
Nothing to note really, temperatures a little lower like today but didn't seem as if the riders felt it, also no real wind to make a difference.
The Favourites
This is pretty much going to be repeating myself won't it? I mean Roglic still looks pretty much unbeatable specially if Jumbo ride the race at their pace like they did today. So instead of going with that logic I'll think of what can be done to dethrone them (assuming it's possible).
Sivakov, Caruso, Reichenbach, Barguil, Kamna have to be in the breakaway if their leaders want to make damage tomorrow. This isn't a question, keeping riders safed and protected is important but the truth is Jumbo are strong enough to keep everyone in close view and they will with no doubt drive the pace as they want, so having domestiques to ride beside you in a climb until they can't follow the wheel won't really do anything... So send them in the break the start is hard enough for those riders to be able to escape, Jumbo won't want to be down to 4 riders that early on so they won't go full gas. If at least 2/3 of those names get in the break they can be pivotal in the intentions of Roglic's rivals, and may act as a launchpad for an attack near the summit of Bisanne, this is what they have to do! And if they want to win this race they will, this is everyone against Jumbo at this point wether they like it or not, so either they ally right now or the race is lost.
These are Bernal, Quintana, Pinot, Landa and Buchmann's main domestiques at the moment so from these riders I expect some move if they come. Guillaume Martin, Miguel Angel Lopez and Tadej Pogacar are also expected to be there in the front or whereabouts.
There's also a chance the breakaway makes it tomorrow, at least the intentions will be there. Mitchelton have both Haig and Yates who will for sure want to leave the race with a win, Mas and Valverde should likely try from Movistar, NTT have Domenico Pozzovivo I would love to see him on the attack he's a rider I love to see riding, Victor de la Parte and maybe an elusive EF rider like Uran or Carthy can also make it up there, and finally I'd put Nicholas Roche as an outsider.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bernal, Quintana, MA.Lopez, Martinez, A.Yates, Caruso, Uran, Mas
This is my man for tomorrow, he likes these huge mountain stages. I think some teams will give it their all to put their strong men in front but then they may not have the power to move in the peloton. If his descending doesn't stop him I think Reichenbach winning from the breakaway is a nice dream to have.
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