It was a strong but not surprising performance by Jumbo to take a dominant win in the shape of Primoz Roglic, after INEOS had taken over the pace throughout most of the final climb, they were unable to dislodge Kuss who eventually created a perfect launchpad for Primoz Roglic who easily gained a gap inside the final kilometer to take over the race lead from his teammate, as I had expected in yesterday's preview. Thibaut Pinot and Emanuel Buchmann wrapped the podium, with 10 riders coming in the space of 10 seconds off the winner.
Positive: Guillaume Martin but specially Daniel Martinez riding very strongly, both are podium candidates at this point. Kuss with a brutal performance on the final climb, although that one maybe we shouldn't be as surprised.
Negative: I was expecting more from Sivakov, even though he worked, . Yates, Uran, Alaphilippe and Benoot all lost important time to the GC, the latter two won't be taking a part of that fight.
The Route
Stage 3 is a very interesting with an almost pan-flat first half of the stage but then then second half is absolutely brutal.
With 52Km to the finish summits the massibe Col de la Madeleine which is a very consistent climb at very high gradients, no rest throughout the whole 18 Kilometers of it.
It's already hard but if it weren't enough the riders will have to go down to then go up again to the finish in Saint Martin de Belleville. Now you may not recognize this name, but you will be familiar with them as these are the first 15 Kilometers of the climb up to Val Thorens. In fact that's literally where I got this profile from, literally just chopped the Val Thorens climb!
The Weather
Threatening, today some of the late riders were under a proper hailstorm and I hadn't at all seen that coming, I don't discard the possibility of it happening again tomorrow, there's much lower temperatures and a chance of rain and lightning.
The Favourites
Today the race panned out as expected, the level is ridiculously high so no-one can really decimate the field, and with such quality in the domestiques of both Ineos and Jumbo it's hard to see any attacks and with good reason. I had hoped for some big moves tomorrow on the Madeleine but I think it'll just be a wish, Jumbo look too strong to be put under serious pressure, specially as they will exactly be expecting it.
So, instead of Ineos we'll be seeing Jumbo in front in control, means there won't really be many attacks for sure, direct confrontation isn't for sure a good idea so some of the climbers will for sure save themselves for the weekend where they can surprise, and perhaps raid the GC as it's custome in the Dauphiné.
With this said there's a chance a breakaway will succeed tomorrow. It isn't big, specially as the start is flat. Damiano Caruso, Jack Haig, Fausto Masnada, Jan Polanc, these are some of the names I expect to at least try tomorrow. As for the GC guys sorry to be an ass but I really don't see how Roglic can be beaten yet tomorrow, in the weekend there's a chance but this is not a climb hard enough to cause big damage even if he has a less good day, plus you can never really tell when he's in dificulty. Bernal won't try like today and I reckon Quintana will also keep his powder dry and Pinot too for sure, I'd put my money more on a rider like Buchmann or Guillaume Martin to surprise, they're not taken as serious as the other big guys but they have the same legs, and they also have an agressive style of racing. Maybe there's another name which is Miguel Angel Lopez, he wasn't showing good form before the Dauphiné but he was tough today and was in the group, tomorrow's climb suits him very well maybe he could surprise.
Porte, Landa, Martinez, sure you can count them in, but let's be cautious where we put our money on.
Prediction Time
⭐ Landa, Quintana, Martinez, Porte, Caruso, Polanc, Haig
The climb tomorrow reminds me a lot of San Martino di Castrozza, funnily enough there's another similarity as the finish is in the middle of a big climb, Lopez likes these long and more shallow gradient climbs, I reckon he can surprise, I don't think he's as marked as Bernal and Quintana.
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