The Route
The race opens up with the longest stage covering a massive 221 Kilometers in lenght and a whole lot of climbing but luckily it won't be GC defining yet for sure, the Col du Beal is the biggest challenge of the day but comes in very early on the stage so the stage will be decided on some slightly easier gradients of Saint-Christo-en-Jarez, on the outskirts of Saint-Étienne.
There's over 3500 meters of climbing tomorrow and its a stage suited for the puncheurs, however the climbers can for sure have their chance, specially if their teams push hard! Some riders will be looking for bonifications, and of curse, a yellow jersey.
The Weather
Over 30 degrees and a strong wind from the south, this will be a hard day for everyone! It means somewhat of a crosswind for most of the stage with some pitches pointing both north and south. As for the final climb it will be a crosswind leading to a finish in a tailwind, favourable for last-minute moves.
The Favourites
The stage will for sure fall upon how it's raced in it's final 55 Kilometers. The stage is quite big and the heat will hurt, however with 4 days of hard racing following I don't think the big GC men will want to crank it up, but rather take as much power possible for the following days. BUT, you also have to consider that there are so many strong riders that there's a chance some may want to surprise. So different riders will have different mentalities and they will decide who can be able to fight for the win.
Now, I'm still testing out the proposed theory that breakaways are more likely to succeed in very hot days. The reasoning behind that being the extra fatigue that riders in the peloton suffer in relation to racing in normal weather, that is proportionally much bigger than the fatigue felt in the breakaway where the riders have much better ventilation. Remi Cavagna, Soren Kragh Andersen, Matej Mohoric... Ok these are the 3 names that properly popped, but the truth is there are so many, Bahrain/UAE/EF/Astana all have so many quality riders, but we don't know if they will also try to spare the team or try a breakaway win.
Then there's the puncheurs, the stage in the end isn't as hard and I reckon they can be there in the end where they can take a win in a sharp finish, and Julian Alaphilippe is the obvious first name to consider, he's got the form and he can climb even if the stage is hard, and he probably has an unmatched power in these kind of finishes, definetely the man to beat. The French have another big hope in Benoit Cosnefroy who is seemingly coming in good form aswell, AG2R are having a big week in terms of transfers and Cosnefroy may be motivated with the added importance he'll have in the team, now take these two men Sonny Colbrelli and Wout van Aert. Colbrelli will probably have the freedom to ride for himself whilst van Aert, he can climb this I am SURE, I just don't know if he'll be commited to his domestique duties already tomorrow or if it can wait a day. Also you reckon Sagan can be there? I find it a bit hard, but he is here so for sure he will want to have a good dig tomorrow.
Dylan Teuns, Dan Martin, Hugh Carthy and Sergio Higuita are riders who fall inbetween that puncheur/climber category, they all have a very good anaerobic capacity which suits those final kilometer attacks and all of them are strong and proven climbers.
Witin the climber territory there should be some energy savings tomorrow, however Roglic and Bernal both have a very strong sprint for a climber and they will want some bonus time, or at the very least to not be caught behind splits so they'll be there. Pogacar and Pinot also fall here ,if they have the form than I don't see why they wouldn't be able to take it too. Also there's Valverde to consider, actually a good finish for him I just don't know exactly how to rank him nowadays, maybe after the Dauphiné I'll have a better idea.
Prediction Time
⭐ D.Martin, Higuita, Colbrelli, Cavagna, Bernal, Valverde,
Tomorrow is a Deceuninck day, and although the obvious thought comes from Alaphillipe, maybe against van Aert replicating this saturday's spectacle, there is something that drives me to Remi Cavagna. Obviously the opening stage is a good opportunity most times, the rolling parcours isn't too hard for him specially in the end it's good for the Frenchman, but most importantly the stage starts in his home town of Clermont-Ferrand. He'll want to makke the move, and with Deceuninck not chasing, not many will make the effort.
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