The queen stage of the race delivered as Movistar and Ineos looked to attack the race, the one benefiting the most from it actually was Mark Padun who although had dropped out of GC contention, was the strongest today attacking early on the climb with Sepp Kuss and then holding everyone off the line to take a massive win. In the GC fight Porte came second and took over the lead of the race, as Ineos attacked Astana, Lopez finished third.
Positive: Padun taking Bahrain's second win of the race and having a tremendous climbing performance, confirming his big potential within the big guns at last. Porte and Ineos got into the lead where they want to be.
Negative: Guillaume Martin, Ilian van Wilder were riders I expected much better today, both lost serious minutes.
The Route
4200 meters of climbing on the final stage of the race. It's a rough one, as always in this race, but arguably not as hard as the normal finishing stages, like last year for example. Not that it's easy in any way, but it feels like it's not a hard stage to control with a flat-ish start and some more gentle climbs, with the hardest near the end. It will nonetheless provide a lot of show!
Col des Aravis summits with 98 kilometers to go, a beautiful climb, the break should be set at this point, if there's any raid meant to happen it'll be here, or...
On the Col de la Colombière, not via it's hardest side but a rough climb nonetheless that will keep things rolling, summiting with 71 kilometers to go.
The Col de Joux Plane is where all the GC riders should be looking towards. It's a really hard climb so they would be smart in doing so, and it also is a little far from the finish which I really appreciate as 17 kilometers separate the summit from the finish.
The gradients will be tough, it's a pretty consistent climb however the steepest gradients come in it's second half. From there on there will be a small short peak which can see some surprise moves coming, and a technical descent into Morzine, where the riders will turn west into Les Gets where a small ascent will lead them into the line, averaging around 3% for 4 kilometers which can be race deciding, brutal for those chasing in the back.
The Weather
Smooth temperature, cloudy sky, we may see a little bit of rain towards the end of the stage but it is rather unlikely.
The Favourites
The last stage of the Dauphiné is usually a tricky one, as some of the riders contesting the Tour are yet to be in their best legs and without the pressure of the most tiny detail making the difference they usually go on the attack on this final day, typically stacked with hard climbs at the start and making for an incredible day's racing. Will that be the same this your though? Unlikely, sadly. Although lots of teams do have to attack to have a deserved GC spot they will likely be waiting for Joux Plane, because Ineos is now in the lead and they don't want anything to do with attacks, and have more than enough quality to control things. So it should be a controlled day until the final climb, that opens things up for a breakaway. It won't be easy, firstly because the start is mostly flat, secondly because there aren't that many great climbers with freedom, however seeing today is a great example that they do exist as Mark Padun shouldn't be on any leash and could maybe even go for another stage (and KOM). Brandon McNulty follows of course right after, Guillaume Martin and Carlos Verona are two other riders who can do really well if they manage to get in front and/or freedom to attack the race. I expect rouleurs to be in front heavily though, I do think Lawson Craddock will once again be there as he'll be fighting to keep his KOM jersey, riders like Kasper Asgreen and Tim Wellens will also be suited to the start and may try to take advantage of it.
The day should be for the GC men though, Ineos won't be pushing but teams like Movistar and Jumbo made their intentions clear today, although they had a good stage the best out of both those teams is Lopez in 6th and that's barely a reward for all the hard work. The Spanish team have nothing to loose, I think they would benefit from trying to get riders in front and then having Mas and Valverde attack halfway through the stage, after discussing alliances with other teams. Riders like Sepp Kuss, David Gaudu or Nairo Quintana have little to loose, although I don't expect them to attack early on, they have a fitting climb in Joux Plane and there they could try to light it up early as they usually race agressively when they've got the form.
The climb should be more on the conservative side if Ineos can do so though, they have Porte in the lead but besides their great team, Geraint Thomas and Tao Hart will also be helping if it's necessary, and adding to that I would be surprised to see Lutsenko attack the Australian, but as for Ion Izagirre I wouldn't as he's won a Tour stage back in 2016 in this climb/descent combo in the rain. Furthermore you have Kelderman and Haig who are two big (literally) climbers who won't be as fond of the harsh gradients, sit 4th and 5th in the overall quite well, they may benefit more from the descent and the slight uphill ascent to the line and may want to race more conservatively aswell, and finally the AG2R duo of Ben O'Connor and Aurelien Paret-Peintre who I would rate well for the stage seeing how they've been riding, however they also have the chance to move up in the overall, although both are sitting well in the Top10.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#202 Sander Armée - Sander it hasn't been the best of seasons for you, but we give you the freedom to try and turn it around. The Tour is just around the corner and today is the last day you have to show you should be there. We have no real GC ambitions and only a few guys left, you try to go hard from the start and get in a front group, you'll need to be smart to be there and to get a good result you need good legs!
#22 Simon Geschke - Simon the Tour is right around the corner and you're in it, Guillaume had a bad crash some days ago so don't worry too much about him, I expected some better form from you at this point of the season but I know it'll come. Tomorrow is another day of work, our chances lie with a breakaway from Guillaume but it will be hard for him to get himself there, the start is also quite flat so it won't be easy for you, just stick along the peloton and if the break only goes in the climb combination try to be up there with him. If you can't get in the group no worries, ride a hard pace up the final climb anyhow, you need those efforts, we have the big one in just a few weeks.
#194 Theo Delacroix - You must be the least known rider in this peloton Theo I must say, still we don't have many responsabilities for today. Louis is doing solid, your job is to protect him early on, get everyone their food and water, take their jackets, stick with them for as long as you can.
Prediction Time
⭐ Verona, Asgreen, Thomas, Valverde, Kuss, Kelderman, O'Connor
The attention was on Padun, and the cameras on Astana/Ineos/Movistar, but away from them Jack Haig had a brilliant performance finishing 4th after a big attack in the final kilometer, the Australian has a suiting day for him tomorrow I reckon, should have enough support and despite his strong GC he isn't marked like the "top" climbers, either a solo win or a sprint are something I can expect to see from him.
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