It was as expected a hard stage with a conservative final ascent. Weird race dynamics I must say, but it was indeed the case, there was a big fight for the breakaway with Tim Wellens and Kasper Asgreen between those looking to get away, everything was controlled though and in the ascent the peloton took it easy giving the sprinters another chance to win, which was about to happen until Geraint Thomas attacked on the final kilometer and a burnt Bahrain had nothing to bring him back, although a photo finish was necessary to confirm he had beaten Colbrelli, who completed the podium with Aranburu.
Positive: Thomas taking a big win and some bonus seconds, makes up for his disapointing stage yesterday.
Negative: Bahrain who worked all day long, with no help, who saw themselves land another second place.
The Route
This will be the first mountain stage, the first of a trio of dificult stages that will decide the race as the stage will finish near Grenoble. But the first 110 kilometers won't, they'll be almost completely flat as the riders will go from the Rhône into the Alps, and the final 55 kilometers will be a completely different scenario.
With 48Km to go the Col de la Placette will open things up, but it will be on the Col de Porte that the stage will mostly be decided (if it is a breakaway deciding it, of course). In case it's a stage to be won by the GC guys there will be a selection. It's a long climb made in two halves essentially, it's not being ridden through the same side as last year when Roglic won in a stage then swarmed by massive hail showers, the riders will go down that side though, but will turn before arriving at Grenoble and climb into Le Sappey-En-Chartreuse.
It's more of a hilltop finish (the whole climb isn't in the profile here obviously), for the pure climbers this ascent won't be felt that much, it's a combination of two 3Km categorized climbs with a flat section in the middle, it does have gradients hard enough to be attacked but slipstreaming will have quite some effect and with a big day coming I doubt there will be riders willing to risk it all for some seconds.
The Weather
Although the forecast is of weak wind, it can very well pick up in high places, coming from the southwest. However, the main threat may be of rain, last year there were brutal hail showers in this climb exactly and there is the chance for rain showers tomorrow, which can make things somewhat dangerous in the final descent.
The Favourites
Many of my thoughts are already above. I doubt the stage will be attacked and many will be thinking of the next day, hence it's a breakaway day. Ineos have made it clear that they are racing defensively, even with the less good time-trial. All is to play on the weekend, Astana may put in some pace to make sure they get into yellow but they also want to keep everything under control to make sure they don't loose time anywhere. On the final ascent we may see some moves but expect no big gaps, it's a climb they'll fly through in the big ring the final one.
I wouldn't expect so but the big climbers obviously need to be considered for such a stage, Ineos with Porte and Hart besides Thomas have plenty cards to play, I do think there will be attacks as there are riders who need to recover already like Guillaume Martin and Sepp Kuss who should have the legs, they aren't alone but I reckon most will still be thinking of saturday. The likes of Wilco Kelderman, Ben O'Connor and David Gaudu have the attacking spirit that fits in a stage like this, if they would find an alliance with let's say Movistar who have a very good stage for Valverde, they could potentially work to give the GC favourites a chance to fight for the stage.
The real contenders though are the riders who can get themselves in the breakaway. Although Bora don't really have serious chances of keeping the yellow jersey they will be controlling things for sure, so I would expect riders further in the GC to be the ones succeeding tomorrow potentially. The list is very big, and the flat start won't help those looking to get in the head of the race, some will be thinking of the stage for sure though and I would expect Michael Valgren to target it, like some AG2R riders like Greg van Avermaet and Dorian Godon who can decently climb, there are climbers who should have freedom and still the legs to take a win atop the mountains like Jaako Hänninen, Valentin Madouas, Carlos Verona, Jonas Vingegaard and Oscar Rodriguez, and of course I would add in Warren Barguil as he semed to be purposefully loosing time during the week.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#64 Nils Politt - Nils you've rode really well so far, we're satisfied with the form coming up to the Tour and your job looking for stages is done. Lukas is in the lead and Wilco is in great form, your job is to protect them today, Michael and Frederik will be taking the helms of the peloton early on, controlling everything and pacing throughout the day making sure that we have the chance at least to keep the jersey. The goal is to have the breakaway always close, when they can't chase anymore you and Patrick can pace, hard until the Col de Porte, there take it easier and hang on far as long as you can. Lukas may hang on in that climb if they take it easier.
#61 Wilco Kelderman - Wilco you will race conservatively today, many reasons why. We have the yellow jersey we will be doing the work tomorrow, Lukas has been riding tremendously and any chance of keeping the jersey with us is vital, so I don't want any attack from you if he's still in the peloton. You obviously won't have to wait for him, if he cracks you have the right to attack but there really is no need, the final climb is easy for you, just keep it in the big ring and follow the wheels, save as many watts as possible for saturday.
#2 Will Barta - Ok Will today is essentially our last chance to take a win, the time-trial didn't go well so our focus remains on getting a stage, we have no-one for the overall and in the mountains it'll be complicated, today we have a chance though and your job is to go ahead and try to get in a breakaway, and try to take either Michael or Julian in the wheel as they are the only ones who have the chance to take a win. Your job is to be there, and pace until the base of the Col de Porte, you can rest up from there on.
Prediction Time
⭐ Thomas, Valverde, Kelderman, McNulty, Lutsenko, Gaudu
I think it will be a win for the breakaway and Warren Barguil will take the win, his goal for this race.
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