I knew it was a tricky time-trial but never would I expect the result that came upon the peloton, Alexey Lutsenko took a rabbit out of the hat and managed to take an incredible and surprising win, beating his own teammate Ion Izagirre, Astana definitely did their homework. Postleberger rode superbly to keep yellow, whilst most of the favourites ended up after the Astana guys.
Positive: Astana had it absolutely dialed today, no doubt the team with best pacing strategy.
Negative: Although you can argue not being in yellow can benefit the Ineos riders, I think otherwise, they wanted to be in control and not have to attack, which they will now. Valverde and Madouas slight disapointments.
The Route
Another tricky stage, the Dauphiné really does like to throw them around. It won't make the sprinters happy, but it does make room for a lot of riders to get a win and have an interesting stage with plenty of contenders. It starts right away with 400 meters of altitude gain, which should see a strong group go up the road, and then will go on with several small hills inbetween the towns of the Massif Central. Everything should be controlled until the final climb though...
Unlike the profile says it's 1.4Km of this, it's a brute specially if the pace is red hot! 12.5Km away from the finish will see the summit of this climb, it's narrow and doesn't immediately dip down so gaps can consolidate, the roads into the finish are not easy to chase.
The final kilometer has some corners that are speed-breakers, shouldn't make much of a difference but if a rider comes in solo he will hate having to sprint out several times.
The Weather
Like today there will be strong wind from the south. It will be dangerous with some crosswind sections, and a very winding route, the final climb will have a headwind apparently, with a mix of headwind and crosswinds until the finish.
The Favourites
It's a tricky stage. Breakaway is definitely possible but with the likes of Colbrelli and Aranburu looking to win and being confident of their climbing skills, surely there will be chase for any group going, one which will have trouble getting away as the day kicks off with a headwind section, and the day isn't overall very hard. There are strong teams looking to control, Sonny Colbrelli has gotten his win but he can definitely do more and Bahrain can afford to work for another if they are in good position, Astana may work witht he double intention of trying to get Lutsenko in yellow if they can distance Postleberger. Other teams may help though, we've seen the likes of Jasper Stuyven and Clément Venturini being very consistent in the sprint clearly showing good form, alongside the possibility of Kaden Groves from BikeExchange to also contest the sprint, we may very well see a sizeable alliance to have it all brought back. But they will need a conservative climb too, it's a very sharp effort and if there are climbers/puncheurs with the intention of attacking, most of these riders will see themselves caught out, and with a very difficult task just to be in contention for the win. Additionally you could see Deceuninck do something, Kasper Asgreen definitely has the legs to contest a sprint.
On the side of those looking to make a harder race surely Movistar would benefit from it, having a finale for Alejandro Valverde, or the likes of Patrick Konrad and Tim Wellens who can also do well in such finished. Wellens himself could go on the attack though, which is a scenario that can succeed over the top of the ascent, riders like Michael Valgren and Bruno Armirail come to mind fast as to ride who can easily succeed solo if they find a gap in the finale.
Lots more riders can win in the same scenario though, it can be a bit of a lottery. I wouldn't be surprised to see UAE on the move too, McNulty should have freedom to attack and can very well time-trial to the win, he can also sprint though and together with Sven Erik Bystrom they can pull off a win, aswell as AG2R who have multiple cards in Dorian Godon, Greg van Avermaet and Aurelien Paret-Peintre who can play several roles in a stage like this.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#112 Steff Cras - Steff tomorrow is another day to prove yourself. You've been doing good so far in the GC, tomorrow I want you to go all-out to make sure you stay in the front group in the climb, remain in contention for the overall. Tim will be riding for the stage, but the stage isn't hard so we will give both of you good support, your teammates will try and position you at the bottom of the final climb and from there on you have to do it yourself, your terrain will be in the mountains so tomorrow is trying to save as much as possible.
#144 Josef Cerny - Josef you have a green card to have your day tomorrow. You've worked tirelessly for your teammates this year and we want to see you win too, we don't have many responsabilities here so I want you to commit tomorrow in getting in the breakaway, your final opportunity. The start won't be easy, in the first part of the stage stay hidden, headwind won't help anyone get away, you will have to be agrressive on the climb and try to get in a group there, around the second half where it switches into a tailwind. From there on you must play smart, several breakaways have so far succeeded, the final climb definitely won't favour you so if there's a big group you should look to attack earlier. If it's a small one keep the legs intact, try to stay in touch on the big climb, then regain your breath and if possible go on the attack after the climb, if you get a gap no-one will lay their eyes on you again.
#175 Martijn Tusveld - Martijn you have a free role tomorrow, I also want you to try and get into a breakaway, we have some good riders but a very young team with no responsabilities and the only way to get a stage is to go in front. You must stay conservative for the first ~5 kilometers and in the second half of the climb, into the tailwind, attack there. From there on the strategy is simple, all will be layed on the sharp climb. You have to play with your strenghts, the climbs are where you can do damage so I want you to save up as much as possible up to that point and then attack hard. Wether you go in a solo move or with a rider or two commit fully, it's the only way you can get a win, don't wait for those behind.
Prediction Time
⭐ Groves, Asgreen, Wellens, Valgren, Armirail, Bystrom, GV.Avermaet, Godon
What the hell, go for it again! Colbrelli is the man to beat, I think a breakaway will be controlled unlike some of the last days, the climb is too short to distance the Italian who climbs very well, and although late attacks can very well succeed, the logical thing to do is back the fast man.
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