It was a nervous finale with the wind playing a role and some crashes in the mix, the final climb was ridden perhaps in a harder pace than expected and sure enough most of the sprinters really struggled up the final kilometer. After winning 2 bunch sprints, Sonny Colbrelli finally translated that into a win by confidently outsprinting Alex Aranburu and Brandon McNulty atop the final ascent. Lukas Postleberger hung on to keep the yellow jersey.
Positive: Colbrelli is being the star of the race so far, it's a good thing (specially for his head) that he managed to get this win today, brilliant rider. Guillaume Martin had a mistimes crash and serious problems getting back on, but managed to arrive in the peloton nevertheless saving the day.
Negative: Well essentially the (pure) sprinters who came here hoping to get a win, this was essentially their last chance, Mads Pedersen's abandon also wasn't good news although it seems to be just out of precaution due to a crash.
The Route
16.5 kilometers alone. This will be a meaningful stage, it's far from a regular time-trial but one that will set differences and further order ahead of the mountains, and we can very well see some of the GC men in the fight for the win itself tomorrow.
There are ~315 meters of climbing here, it's not much but it will put the hurt on some of the heavier riders as from Km4.8 the route will go on a constant gentle rollercoaster throughout the hills into Roche-La-Molière. I don't need to say much as all the details are very clear above, I know pacing won't be easy to plan out here but a good strategy can be highly benificial, specially as the last 1.4Km are in a slight ascent and when the stage comes down to just seconds, very valuable ones can be gained here.
The Weather
Not ideal for a time-trial, the wind will be strong coming from the south in a constant intensity throughout the afternoon. It will make for a slightly faster average for sure with some tailwind sections, there will be a block headwind in the final little climb though and that will make it even more essential to nail the pacing.
The Favourites
It's a very tricky time-trial, we can see some surprises as it won't all be in the legs, and with the lack of big specialists aswell on the startline we will have the GC riders fighting for the stage aswell. The men to beat? Ineos. Yes again. There is ignoring that they will be the men to beat, I reckon pretty much every rider could have a strong result, but in Geraint Thomas and Richie Porte, judging how they've been racing this year, is where they will have their main focus in. Dylan van Baarle and Michal Kwiatkowski can very well be on the fight for the stage itself aswell though for sure.
Competition isn't slim though, in the field of pure time-trialists, who may have been saving themselves for this stage specifically we find quality, in Kasper Asgreen firstly who has shown good legs in these stages and is surely targeting yellow, Deceuninck also have a card in Josef Cerny who may do something good, we have in EF the likes of Will Barta and Lawson Craddock who are under the radar but have a very suited route for both their qualities. We also have stage 1 winner Brent van Moer who is on paper a time-trialist, he will have another chance to take a win but honestly his race is made already. Mikkel Bjerg and Nils Politt are also good cards to play tomorrow.
The rest of the army are riders who are looking for the overall lead, or at least a stint in yellow which I can consider men like Bruno Armirail and Alex Aranburu who won't surely be in the big GC fight in the mountains but can be high up and possibly eye breakaways aswell, that is if Aranburu himself doesn't get yellow which may very well happen. You have the likes of Wilco Kelderman, Ion Izagirre, Ilian Van Wilder and Damien Howson, I expect strong performances from all of them tomorrow, Steven Kruijswijk is surely going to be Jumbo's main man for tomorrow although the leadership roles are set for Sepp Kuss from what I've been reading, the team also has Jonas Vingegaard who on a good day can tear up the road but I'm unsure if he's capable of doing so, also having lost time on the overall, like Brandon McNulty who was flying today at the finish, he's lost time on the opening stage due to a mechanical but will be trying to get that win tomorrow.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#83 Jaako Hänninen - Can't believe I'm having to talk to you once again Jaako! You did good following my words the other day, the team is doing really good, both Ben and Aurelien did really good and you impressed me by staying up there near the front with the best. GC isn't impossible, don't get too cocky as we have different goals for the week, but we may let you in some breakaways later, you can finish well in the overall, you will be tested so make sure you put in as much as you can! Today isn't very suited to you but do your best, take it conservative in the initial kilometers, in the rolling hills is where the differences will be made, take it hard uphill and below FTP in the downhill pitches, and take a big breather before the final climb, lots of seconds can be won or lost there so you have to reach the end with a good tank and put in some serious wattage.
#24 Emmanuel Morin - Take it easy, you'll be informed on the time-limit before you start off and we'll guide you so that you can save you legs as much as possible, not a day for you so rest up for the next few days where we'll need you.
#26 Pierre-Luc Perichon - Pierre you heard what I told Emmanuel right? Rinse and repeat.
Prediction Time
⭐ Van Baarle, Kruijswijk, Barta, Van Moer, Aranburu, Kelderman
I've heard good things about how Kasper Asgreen has been putting on a lot of focus on his time-trial training, and although I think tomorrow's route would suit better some of his rivals, the Dane can seriously climb when he's on form and I will deposit my trust in him.
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