It was another day for a successful breakaway and a new yellow jersey in the form of a rouleur. Today it was Lukas Postleberger, member of the early break and easily the one on the best day, dropping his companions early on and doing the final climb solo from top to bottom, he benefited from the conservative chase led by Bahrain and Ineos and managed to just about survive the chase. In the peloton once again Colbrelli finished second, Valverde finished third.
Positive: Postleberger's lucky day, not the first time he does his magic though!
Negative: Colbrelli syndrome, same as yesterday. Vingegaard lost time, unknown yet why but not what I was expecting from the Dane, out of GC contention.
The Route
A breakaway day? Well it's not an easy guess. Usually I would look at such a stage and say yes for sure but it's 2021 and anything can happen, the start is moderately hard and good for a strong group to form, the starting 17.5Km are uphill, not steep but they will be felt, and until the 30Km mark there won't be flat roads.
The second half of the stage then, is flat. But then the sprinters will have to deal with a punchy finale which will mean less teams will be putting on the gas, giving further advantage for a breakaway win.
The finale in Saint-Haon-Le-Vieux is not easy (although not technical at all, only has a roundabout halfway). The pure sprinters can struggle, those that can climb shouldn't have much problem, but the gradients will pinch quite a bit in the final kilometer as the final 700 meters average 6% and if the pace goes all-out since the base of the ascent the puncheurs may have a meaningful edge in the final hundred meters and able to outsprint the fast men.
The Weather
Southern breeze all day long, which does actually fit in perfectly for, you guessed it, another breakaway...
It will be felt, no group can have a big leash given, but the sprinter teams will know this and despite the little uphill finish we'll certainly have the sprinter teams all working towards their common goal.
The Favourites
If there is a sprint stage, this is it. It's not the last chance for some of the fast men, but it's the one they have been looking forward to the most, those that come with ambitions of taking a stage win of course. In the field of the riders who probably only came here with chance of winning tomorrow you have the likes of Mads Pedersen who should be Trek's option, although Jasper Stuyven himself can be in contention, and Alexander Kristoff who's been on a good run of form but would naturally prefer a flatter finale.
Most of the men that came here though came because they could climb, the finale will suit some of the sprinters like Sonny Colbrelli who's won the bunch sprint two days in a row now and will have a new chance tomorrow, Alex Aranburu who's also an expert on such finales and will definitely be licking his lips. These two are the main favourites I reckon, they can however be surprised, Clément Venturini is only of the AG2R army that can see Dorian Godon, Greg van Avermaet and Aurelien Paret-Peintre as also possible contenders, the team can play in many different ways and have here their best chance to take a big win this week. Furthermore add Florian Sénéchal who should be given the green card to sprint for Deceuninck, with a strong leadout in front, Kaden Groves who had BikeExchange work hard in the end yesterday and also Carlos Barbero.
In the possibility that this finale turns really tough, and the final kilometer is suffocating from the start, we could have some puncheurs also turn up to possibly get the win. Although Sonny Colbrelli is the main card we could see Dylan Teuns being played out as an attacker if the situation fits right, in this field Alejandro Valverde is definitely the biggest card and will be looking for more bonus seconds to say the lead in the finale, Michal Kwiatkowski and Valentin Madouas are two other possible options if given the freedom.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#142 Shane Archbold - You did good today but tomorrow there is no letting off the steam, you have a job to do here and that's to help our sprinter as much as possible. Fabio is still recovering so he'll be controlling things and leading out from further, tomorrow we're going with Florian for the stage win, he can do something big and we've got the men to provide that opportunity for him very well. We have a big leadout and every piece is crucial, Stijn and Josef will take care of getting you well positioned until 2.5Km to go, you follow their wheel and stay on the right side of the road, the last thing we need is to be blocked on the 90º degree corner at the bottom of the final climb. Start in front, they will drop back with around 2Km to go and you take up things from there on, Kasper and Florian will be in your wheel, the important is beginning that section in front, you will help them stay in front for as long as you can, we don't want to set a brutal pace and we don't want Kasper to loose time.
#91 Ion Izagirre - We trust you to go for the overall so tomorrow you won't have to work like today. It's a good finale for Alex but he's still lacking that sprint, so although we'll be backing him tomorrow for the sprint you can stay near him and then take the final kilometer as you want, preferencially not going 100% as your stages lie later in the week.
#176 Ilian Van Wilder - Ilian my advice to you is take it easy. You have great legs and other don't know of your power yet, the time-trial is where you will go all-in. Finishing 7th today is nice but it doesn't give you any benifit to be sprinting for minor places like that, keep it cool and conservative. Tomorrow there won't be splits, you can stay near the front and make sure you don't miss out on any seconds but don't try to go over the sprinters.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pedersen, Stuyven, GV.Avermaet, Sénéchal, Groves, Madouas
I think Sonny Colbrelli will finally be rewarded for his persistency. He's in great form that seems clear, tomorrow more teams will help towards his goal and the finish will suit him very well, as attacks are very hard to succeed and he will be in theory the right with the sharpest sprint at the end of the hilltop.
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