The first stage of the Dauphiné is always an interesting one and this year was no exception, lots of scenarios were expected and the successful one in the end ended up being the breakaway, it never looked like it was really going to happen until Brent van Moer attacked the small group in the base of the final climb and was never seen by the peloton, taking an impressive (and deserved, seeing what happened to him earlier this week) win. The peloton came home led by Sonny Colbrelli and Clément Venturini.
Positive: Van Moer, already nicknamed the "new De Gendt" by... Thomas de Gendt.
Negative: Colbrelli suffering from the Colbrelli/Matthews syndrome again, perfect stage for him but he finds himself winning the sprint behind the breakaway again (not a bad performance, just bad luck). McNulty had a badly timed mechanical, he has lost some minutes and likely out of GC contention.
The Route
Starting in Brioude there will be over 3200 meters tomorrow in a day that is quite interesting, and should see some interesting moves as the GC riders and some outsiders will mix in and with little indicator of form, there can be some surprises.
The day starts flat but has a mean climb in the Col de Peyra Taillade. It comes far from the finish, but maybe if there is no breakaway up to this point we can see the peloton smashed to bits, and a very strong group riding away.
After that there will be constant rolling roads, not easy terrain to chase and definitely damage will be made here as the fatigue will set in, preparing also the riders for the final climbs.
The finale is similar to today with a main climb and a short hilltop right after, followed by a descent to the line. However, La Pierre Passade is twice the distance and right around the same gradients, it's also pretty straightforward with no real places to attack but it summits with a mere 7 kilometers to go, and the following Côte de Masset is very gentle but summits with just 4 kilometers to go, from which the riders will drop down quickly into the finish in Saugues.
The finale inside the town is... weird. The finish line comes, ironically, after a couple of slight turns. Unsure why this was authorized, won't say it's dangerous but if there is (which there will be) any group sprint we might see a nasty crash.
The Weather
Temperatures will lower a bit, there are chances of rain tomorrow throughout the afternoon, it won't surely be a nice day but there aren't any big descents that would make a difference.
The Favourites
Will the stage go for a breakaway? I doubt it, with most of the climbers staying in the peloton today and a flat start, tomorrow really won't be a favourable day for that scenario although I imagine no-one will really be attacking the race all-out because the final climbs surely won't be enough to make differences between the big men. Besides, Lotto will try to fight and keep the yellow jersey on their shoulders and will be controlling the race, that opens things up for the climbers.
The question is who will be on the attack and who won't. Well who won't surely are Ineos, they raced perfectly today and their intentions are clear, keep everyone well positioned and all the cards on the table. Nevertheless the stage suits Geraint Thomas very well, but with Hart and Porte they can surely race differently if it gets too hard. I expect Jumbo with Kruijswijk and Vingegaard to also race conservatively, not their kind of stage and they will be waiting for the TT, as for Kuss he's surely got a green card though... I could argue that Wilco Kelderman and Ion Izagirre will also do so, but they are actually quite proper wildcards for such an explosive finale, and definitely won't be marked like the riders previously mentioned. I would expect Nairo Quintana to do the same, his racing style is very precise and he won't attack the race likely until La Plagne, we could see Warren Barguil on the move though, also a good option for a possible small bunch sprint.
On the particular offensive side I imagine Guillaume Martin will be one of the riders to play his cards, confident from a dominant win this week and with a time-trial later on he does need to put it out there to try and get to the mountains as well positioned. David Gaudu and Valentin Madouas in my opinion will also try to do the same if they have the legs.
A lot more climbers remain though, I could argue Dylan Teuns and Jack Haig won't be making moves as there is a small possibility Sonny Colbrelli makes it through, he showed the sprint legs today, he can definitely climb superbly so we must see if he can hang well enough to dispute the stage, we could also see Movistar with the same strategy as Alejandro Valverde would benefit from a group finish, having Miguel Angel Lopez and Enric Mas also as cards to play, and finally I slot in AG2R who could possibly do the same with Aurelien Paret-Peintre, and in Ben O'Connor have a card that will have freedom and great capacity to attack the climbs.
Form is still rather unknown on most of the riders at this point, it will be a stage more to see where everyone is, a lot of riders can take it.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#73 Jaako Hänninen - Jaako today is a day where you can show your worth, the Tour squad isn't yet closed and it's on stages like this where you can show you're worthy of that spot. The classics guys will be supporting today, the most important thing is making sure Ben is well positioned and well supported, you won't take the helm of the team today, if both Ben and Aurelien drop you go back and pull them, if one of them is in the front group you hang as well as you can. You won't have to do much work during the day, let the Belgians put in those heavy efforts, we'll try to give you an easy ride until the big climb and there I want to see what you're capable of.
#56 Alejandro Valverde - Ok listen up big man if anyone is capable of winning today it's you. You and the guys just came from altitude but there's no excuse, this race is preparation but we always fight for the win when we can, you're the big dog until the time-trial, you can win today and you can talk to Miguel and Enric to help control things in the finale, cover moves mainly because they will come. The climb isn't hard, you stay in the wheel of those Ineos folks, they will ride pace the whole way and won't want anyone getting away, you will have help but if you see that it's absolutely necessary try to jump across to any move in front on the final little hilltop, if there's a group in front at that point it's going all the way to the line. The day is good for you, time to give it a good nudge!
#114 Matthew Holmes - Matt the task is very clear for today, Brent was absolutely flying yesterday and got the lead, it means a lot to us and we have to try and keep it for as long as possible. Will he be able to climb with the best today? I don't know, but you have to make sure he has the opportunity. Tim will be saving himself too, we've got a young squad so you have to help them out at the start to make sure no-one dangerous gets in the breakaway. When it's set sit back a bit, we'll need you later, you can climb well so you need to stay with Brent for as long as possible, if you resist until the final climb put yourself in the wind and make sure he and Tim enter the climb well positioned. When it starts you can relax.
Prediction Time
⭐ Hart, Vingegaard, Kuss, Barguil, Quintana, G.Martin, MA.Lopez, Teuns, Colbrelli, Aranburu
My call for the win is David Gaudu. Having a very significant kick it's ideal for such climbs, but in a sprint he's also capable of taking it.
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