The Route
The opening stage of the Dauphiné brings in a classic taste with a hilly circuit finish, suited for some rough sprinters, but also the puncheurs and possibily an elusive breakaway win.
This is the main feature of the stage. The last time up it there will be attacks, you find it's summit with 89.5, 52 and 15 kilometers to go, it's a straightforward climb but it's long enough to cause some damage and right after there is no descent, only another small categorized climb that averages 5% for 1.6Km that summits with a mere 12.5 kilometers to go.
From there on the run-up to the finale is mostly downhill, but far from steep and far from technical so they are decent roads to chase. The final 2.3 kilometers are back in flat roads, back into the center of Issoire, there will be a dangerous corner in the final kilometer coming from a small downhill section, but otherwise the finish is pretty safe.
The Weather
Nice temperatures and a modest northern breeze. It shouldn't make much of a difference throughout the day but it does mean a tailwind on the descent down to the line which can favour attackers.
The Favourites
Tomorrow will be a battle of attrition between the teams that want to see a bunched up finish, those who see in this stage a good opportunity to take a big win and possibly the leader's jersey, and those that are eyeing the overall and will be marking each other. This will make for interesting dynamics in a final combination of climbs that isn't overly hard but is quite a decent ascent, depending on the pace it's ridden. Most riders have came from stints at altitude and long periods of training so form is rather unknown which will add a bit more of unknown factor, however we have some riders in which we can guide, main favourites for the stage are two sprinters that can climb very well both long and short climbs, on one side Sonny Colbrelli for Bahrain and on the other Alex Aranburu for Astana, both have a strong team that should be able to control the race if needed but they will themselves need very good legs, and a race hard enough to crack some of the faster men like Alexander Kristoff and Mads Pedersen who will be looking for a race as conservative as possible, definitely the men with the highest peak power in this peloton, Trek do have Jasper Stuyven as an option aswell though who may be able to resist, same way as UAE have Sven Erik Bystrom and Mikkel Bjerg who can surprise.
Furthermore you could see someone like Clement Venturini do really well, AG2R have Greg van Avermaet and Dorian Godon who should also really like such a punchy route, and in Qhubeka Carlos Barbero will also be looking for an opportunity.
But as I made it clear, it won't be easy to keep it all together. The final climb, tailwind and possible yellow jersey will motivate many to make a move. I think the GC guys will be marking each other but riders like Geraint Thomas and Alejandro Valverde can surely be in the fight in a reduced bunch sprint. Ineos have many options in fact and perhaps Michal Kwiatkowski can have temporary freedom, and you have for example Groupama who also have several weapons in David Gaudu, Valentin Madouas and Bruno Armirail who each can win the stage in a different way. In the GC guys you could see the likes of Guillaume Martin and Wilco Kelderman make moves I wouldn't be surprised, you have puncheurs like Warren Barguil, Tim Wellens, Quentin Pacher and Michael Valgren who are all cards for such a finale if they get a gap.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#77 Clément Venturini - Tomorrow is a good stage for you Clément but you have to play your cards well. We won't all be behind you, Ben is coming for the GC so we have to make sure first and foremost that he goes over every climb well positioned, and with Greg, Dorian, Aurélien and Oliver you have to be honest throughout the day on wether you feel you can go over the climb or not, you'll have the opportunity to ride it more than once so do it wisely. If you can't help the team on the positioning prior to the penultimate climb, we have a lot of cards to play and we want them all to be in for a chance to take the win. If you feel good say it, we'll make some moves over the top if possible but if it comes down to a sprint the guys will help you, the finish is flat and will be quite fast which isn't ideal so focus on staying in 3rd/4th wheel, that's the ideal place to start your sprint so make sure you fight for that specific position.
#207 Dylan Sunderland - Tomorrow is a more calm day for you Dylan. We don't know yet where we stand, your task is to take care of Fabio and position him where possible. Won't put much pressure on you, we have Carlos who can fight for the stage but it's not your job to help him out.
#27 Kenneth Vanbilsen - Kenneth you're on domestique role this week, tomorrow won't be an easy day for you but you don't have too many responsabilities, your work is to get everyone their food and water regularly, and help position Guillaume essentially for as long as you can hang on with the peloton. The team is all-in on him they'll take care of him when the real stuff begin, you stay and make sure everyone is alright during the day, you're the road captain.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kristoff, Bystrom, Stuyven, Venturini, Godon, Thomas, Madouas, G.Martin, Barguil
I think somehow everything will stay together, attacks will happen but I think the non-technical descent will make it very hard for someone to stay ahead, and there are a lot of interests that will surely see a reduced bunch sprint happening, with Alex Aranburu taking the win.
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