The Tour de France is nearing and this week we have a lot of racing in Plouay, firstly the GP which I will preview here and then the European Championships. Regarding the GP though it's an interesting race through Bretagne, a hilly affair a race that both suits puncheurs and rouleurs, as well as some lucky sprinters who may make it through, so what do we have in store?
The Route
This year the route is a bit more gentle than it has in the last few years. Following this new tradition the route is changed up quite a bit again, this time heading up north into Saint Brieuc before coming back down to Plouay. There route is 249 Kilometers long and has 2881 meters of climbing, so really not a whole lot of it, although there are some climbs concentrated there in the end.
Early in the race is when we see the hardest climb of this race in the Mur-de-Bretagne and it should have no impact whatsoever that far from the finish, then in the middle there are some rough pitches there that could lead to some early attacks such as the Kerdoret (108Km to finish) but mainly the Côte de Bon Repos (81Km to finish). However these will just do for setup attacks if they come, most of the puncheurs will be eyeing those final climbs which means that sense of opportunity, mainly between the climbs can make the decisive attacks.
There are a lot of rolling roads and some "categorized" climbs, the Kerhoat (22.5Km to finish), Restergai (16.5Km to finish) and Côte du Lezot (12Km to finish) are a nice setup for those who want to attack, a quick succession of climbs with not-to-steep gradients will allow lots of riders to be there on the hunt, they pass through the finish line with 14Km to go.
Then there's the classic Plouay roads before (the new?) climb of Restergai, just besides the Côte de Ty Marec which is the classic last climb of the race, it is around a kilometer at a constant 5% and summits with 3Km to go, before the flat finish into Plouay.
The Weather
Brutal! Cloudy skies and chances of rain early in the day. But most importantly very strong and constant southwestern wind which will mean the first half of the race will be very fast and will allow the race to break apart early on. Not good news for the sprinter, however if everything hold together the rush back to Plouay will have a lot of headwind. The last part of the race though isn't favourable to them though as the section after the Restergal climb is open and will have a tailwind.
The Pure Puncheurs
This is a space more devoted to the riders that we'll likely see more on the offensive. Although there are some fast names here, this startlist ends up being very interesting for a WT race as the TDF's relative clash and the European Championships on the same circuit on the next day, it limits those who'll be here.
With that said there's some riders here to consider, more on the fast side there's men like Alex Aranburu who's been very consistent over the last few weeks, Patrick Bevin and Andrea Vendrame all are riders that have a strong sprint but will fancy their chances in a move, even if a late one uphill as their best chances come with a small group finish. Looking for more distant attacks, early work to crush the peloton will be for sure Groupama who are on a roll after several wins specially by Démare in the last few weeks, he isn't here but Kevin Geniets, Anthony Roux and Alexys Brunel are capable of filling up his shoes in this race. Maybe not as effectively, but there's a lot of depth and in a race like this it matters a lot to cover moves and make sure they're always present in the big moves. Rui Costa may be a bit hampered by a sprinter-focused team but he is very fit for this route and he seems to be in very good form after a win in the NC's and almost winning the Tour de Limousin.
Also I would consider Circus who have Danny van Poppel and Andrea Pasqualon as very good options for the sprint but they will for sure want to race agressive as they have Loic Vliegen and Aimé de Gendt in great form and they will for sure love this race with rolling and gentle climbs all the way. Also, Biniam Ghirmay is a nice outsider to have in mind.
And the Rouleurs?
On this section I feature as a main man the defending champion Sep Vanmarcke, he took a brilliant win here last year and will be motivated as a defending champion, the route suits him and he has Ruben Guerreiro has a nice backup to cover moves.
And the other riders in here are top notch, firstly Ivan Garcia Cortina who is another ideal name for a rough day in the saddle and a flat finish, he has Grega Bole as an alternative if he can't make it up but Cortina is without a doubt one of the big favourites for the win, as are the Deceuninck squad who bring some secondary leaders who are absolutely flying, and you know what they (me) say, get a Deceuninck rider in flying form and they're as strong as other leaders that "look" superior to them, and it applies a lot to this race. Remi Cavagna is a beast and he's in form, almost taking the European TT title today, maybe he'll feel a bit of fatigue but if he doesn't he is the best rider to net a solo win here, the rolling hills and rough finish section are ideal if he gets a gap, he won't be caught, if he is the team has two great options in Florian Sénéchal and Jannik Steimle.
Can it be a sprint for the win?
And if the attackers fail to capitalize on the hills it can come down to a sprint, and here the field is no joke there's some serious form on some of these riders. UAE bring a strong team and an in-form Fernando Gaviria who took a brilliant win in Limousin on his birthday, he is a good rider for the classics as is Jasper Philipsen, both can do something tomorrow specially if they have team support. Following there's Michael Matthews, third in Milano-Sanremo and eternal runner-up, Sunweb many times struggle to get a win with him but he's super consistent, the question is if he can finally get that big win that hasn't shown in almost a year, he's got super talent Nils Eekhoff with him, runner-up in the Dutch NC's who I don't know how will fare with the distance, but with no doubt has the power to be up there in a big role. Following those are the Mitchelton boys, Dion Smith with a brilliant performance in Milano-Sanremo surprised many, so he has to be taken into account in a route like this, a perfect mix of a puncheur and sprinter co-leading the team, for sure alongside Luka Mezgec who can also hold his own in the climbs and has a powerful sprint very well suited for this very fast finish.
Additionally there are some good sprinters that can and should also be there even if there's an agressive race, I would name Kristian Sbaragli as the ultimate for this race, Jempy Drucker and Reinardt Janse van Rensburg
Prediction Time
🌟 Vanmarcke, Vendrame, Bevin, Costa, Philipsen, Geniets, Vliegen, Mezgec
A lot of talk has been rolling along about this guy, his talent is undeniable but not so visible as he finds himself in a team of stars. Florian Sénéchal is my pick to win this race, he is in great form and he has a very strong sprint, besides he's a natural classics rider, suited to the harsh conditions, the agressive racing and the punchy climbing. Deceuninck have the depth to be in the important moves, so I expect them to succeed here.
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