We have had a surprising yet exciting race in Nokere with the breakaway taking an unexpected win just holding off the often deorganized peloton. In Koksijde the opportunity arises again, but will the sprinter teams let the same scenario happen?
The Route
This classic is essentially a compination of Gent-Wevelgem with the De Panne classic, having it's main climbing features in the Kemmelberg area and then finishing on Koksijde right by the town of De Panne by the sea. So what do we have on the menu? 200 kilometers of traditional Belgian racing, there are two sections to the race, the first one has some climbing...
There is a small loop with a couple of climbs that stand out from the rest. The first is the Kemmelberg via it's most used side, the grades are quite hard at it's base and entrace in the cobbles, and it flattens out towards the end, it summits with 118.5 and 94.5Km to go.
The second climb is the Rodeberg, it's not a brute, just a regular Flandrien climb, the grade pitches up towards it's summit, it's favourable for splits, it summits with 113 and 89Km to go, and is actually the last climb in the route.
From there on it's mostly a flat run-up to Koksijde where then the riders will be riding an 11.5 kilometer long circuit 3 times.
The final circuit near the sea isn't very technical until the final kilometer, there's an almost 180 turn towards the center of town and then a combination of slight turns with 550 and 400 meters to go that will lead the riders onto the finishing straight.
The Weather
Belgian weather in it's purest form! Although the riders may evade the rain they'll have low temperatures and very strong wind, between 25 and 30Km/h from the northeast. There's no other way of saying it, there will be echelons and it can happen right from the start, but the whole route will be a trap because crosswinds will be almost a constant until the riders enter the final circuit. Inside it the direction will change quite often, it'll have headwind at it's start but those parts will be ridden full-speed to prepare for the crosswind sections, the final straight should be more covered but still a tailwind, suited for the heavier sprinters.
There are some teams who can split it early on
Echelons are likely and some teams look sharper than others when it comes to these complicated race situations. Experience matters a lot but raw power will be important aswell and the WorldTour lineups mostly have some advantage in this field. You've got teams like Bora, led by Mattew Walls and Martin Laas, Deceuninck who will have Florian Sénéchal as the most trustworthy option but also Mark Cavendish as a possibility for the sprint, UAE who've got a brilliant team of rouleurs that should be set to help Juan Sebastian Molano towards the end, these teams have got a squad full of raw power and should fare quite well in the splits. Naturally however they aren't the only ones, Trek have got Matteo Moschetti and last minute addition Mads Pedersen leading the team and they usually are a team thriving in these conditions, there's Qhubeka - led by giant Max Walscheid - and Uno-X who will have Kristoffer Halvorsen leading in and these are two teams that have been riding the semi-classics very well and I expect them to perform brilliantly.
There's also Alpecin and Tim Merlier, perhaps the man to beat assuming he'll be at the finish, but the competition is fierce from every side.
But there are quite a lot more sprinters in the mix
There are plenty more sprinters though of course and even in splits for sure several would be at the front and riding strong. You've got some teams with several options like Intermarche with Danny van Poppel and Ricardo Minali, Delko with Pierre Barbier and Eduard-Michael Grosu who can be dangerous in a sprint, and you've got then several teams that should be working for a specific rider. Leading the WT teams you've got Alberto Dainese for DSM, Jake Stewart for Groupama, Gerben Thijssen for Lotto Soudal, Szymon Sajnok and Simone Consonni for Cofidis and Rudy Barbier leading Israel.
Regarding the PCT teams, besides some riders mentioned above, are Thomas Boudat leading Arkea, Timothy Dupont who crashed today but should be ok to lead the winning Bingoal team tomorrow, Jens Debusschere leading B&B Hotels and finally Enzo Wouters leading Tarteletto.
Rouleur Jokers
I don't expect attacks in the hills to make a difference but surely they can create some important splits on the exit, however the possibility of a breakaway success or a late attack having the same effect can't be discarded. I have some nice names which I see being able to pull it off, obviously the list is bigger and race situation is key but some have a slight upper hand, mostly rouleurs like Florian Sénéchal, Nils Pollit, Lukas Postleberger, Mikkel Bjerg, Alexys Brunel, Rasmus Tiller, Jan-Willem van Schip, these have to be mentioned after yesterday's duo of Ludovic Robeet and Damien Gaudin - who will be racing again - managed to elude the peloton.
Prediction Time
⭐ Walls, Cavendish, Moschetti, D.van Poppel, P.Barbier, Stewart, Sajnok, Consonni, Boudat, Politt, Eekhoff
Trek is a team very familiar and will love these conditions, they have the power and the experience to thrive in the crosswinds and their leader Mads Pedersen comes in surely with the goal of taking the win and I expect him to fullfil it.
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