It was a very hard stage, despite only 96 kilometers long, halfway through the stage the first big attack came from the GC contenders. And although it was then shut down, on the final ascent of the Saint-Roch Tim Wellens, Marc Hirschi and Laurens de Plus, in which they finished in that order with Wellens winning in a photo-finish sprint, attacked from the shredded peloton and made it all the way to the line. A chasing group arrive split behind, with Ivan Garcia Cortina, Oliver Naesen, Michael Valgren and Mike Teunissen, and the other bulck of GC contenders finished in a group 33 seconds behind with riders such as tGreg van Avermaet and the Deceuninck riders. Wellens also netted the lead of the race, which he may very well hang on to.
Positive: Wellens took the most out of a day that suited him perfectly, De Plus was a great surprise although Jumbo knew he had it in him as they set up the first half of the stage with an infernal pace. Hirschi was not a big surprise but at the age of 20 he is really coming onto his own and one of the biggest talents in the peloton. Michael Valgren and Soren Kragh Andersen good riders to take into account, been a big while (specially for Valgren) since I've seen them as strong as they showed today.
Negative: Deceuninck definetely, Stybar looked lively upon the first attacks and had Keisse with him but when the vital moments came he couldn't answer, and Gilbert and Jungels were no better.
The Route
On stage 5 the rider go back to Netherlands, it's another pan-flat stage, this one less technical and with no cobblestone sectors involved, and with a finishing circuit to top it off, it's 15 kilometers long and the Golden Kilometer comes with 10 kilometers to go.
As for the finish it's not technical, it's finally a "safe" finish for the fast men. Except the turn with 2 kilometers to go towards the Venray center there's no danger spots, and the roads are wide leading into it so it will be a battle of leadouts and the fast men above everything else.
The Weather
No rain at least will come as a positive for tomorrow, but as for the wind their luck won't improve. The wind will be a consistent 15-20Km/h from the soutwest which comes exactly as a tailwind, all day long actually. Will make for a very fast stage and one where more riders will be interested in getting themselves in the breakaway as there are legitimate chances of succeeding in it.
The Favourites
Well it is a return to the sprints, the stage is not bad at all for the breakaway to succeed but the interests in the sprints has been very high, Bora specially will have no problem in using up the team to chase hard, as they haven't even had a proper leadout for Bennett so far he's capable of handling himself in the final kilometers, with three wins in the bag he is the man to beat, that's hard to contest. However in the last sprint Dylan Groenewegen was quite the competition, but with de Plus a serious contender for the win and Teunissen also on the GC fight, until what point does the team really have the motivation to go all-in on Groenewegen. May be one of the subjects of the day.
Jasper Philipsen has seemed like the rider closer to those two, some othe riders have infiltrated the Top3 in previous stages but it had a lot to do with positioning as they were quite technical finished, tomorrow it'll be "easier" if I can say so. So between Philipsen and I suspect Trek, either with Theuns or Moschetti if he has recovered there is quality in there, mostly as they have set their leadouts very well.
Arnaud Démare and Alvaro Hodeg start as outsider contenders, both have the legs to be in contention for the win but neither have even been close to do so, they have to nail positioning first of all but there's a chance they may be able to do so tomorrow, Hodeg I won't say but Démare has the team to do that job.
Kristofer Halvorsen, Timothy Dupont and Amaury Capiot have been present in the sprints and very well, riders to consider, Phil Bauhaus was harmed by a crash in the last sprint stage but tomorrow we should see more of him, Jakub Mareczko remains a possibility but it's been hard so far. Riders like Boy van Poppel or Jurgen Roelandts are also outsiders with some potential for a good result as long as they play out their cards well.
Prediction Time
⭐ Hodeg, Halvorsen, Dupont, Mareczko, Capiot, Bauhaus
Well, I think it's a 50/50 for tomorrow, my instict tells me Groenewegen will take it but his team has now more riders to be focused on, and that is far from what he needs to have the perfect setup for the stage. Bennett on the other hand has that, I think he can take it again, wouldn't it be historic?
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