The Ardennes week is one of the most iconic series of classics in pro cycling and it begins tomorrow in Limburg with the Amstel Gold Race, the one that over the years has changed the most and, because of Covid-19, has had yet another big change to the route, but nonetheless one that should favour the same type of riders.
The Route
For a starters the route is shorter, in 2019 the riders had a massive 259 kilometers but this year we've just got 215.5 on the menu. But these will in no way be easier as there are still 3000 meters of climbing throughout the day despite there not being any big climb throughout the day. The race will be made of a 17 kilometers circuit including 3 main climbs which are the Cauberg, the Geulhemmerberg and the Bemelerberg.
The main circuit that will be ridden 12 times is this one over here. The circuit is closed to a more disperse area because the race was only given permission to go ahead if it was closed off to spectators. It's not a brutal one, but the fatigue will add throughout the day and in every lap there's an opportunity to split the race apart. On the other hand, every rider will get to the end of the day knowing each bit of road by heart!
The Cauberg is the classic AGR climb, it used to be the place of the finish line but in order to have a more agressive race the organizers had it further and further away from the finish. It's worked actually, the climb lost the importance it once had but as it will be ridden multiple times tomorrow and will be the hardest one of the race it can be a very important launchpad for those looking to attack. It won't be ridden in the final 13th lap, so the last time it'll be summited is with 17Km to go (the circuit is slightly different in the final lap, that one is 15.5Km long so the math adds up).
The final lap will only feature the other 2 climbs. One of them is the Geulhemmerberg and it summits with 13Km to go on the final lap, again it's not a hard climb but will be ridden multiple times, can be another launchpad for an attack as the first kilometers averages quite a decent 6%.
The final climb is the Bemelerberg which is 800 meters long at 6.2%, it features what resemble switchbacks in it which makes it easier to attack, it summits in the last lap with 6 kilometers to go and is the final place where you can attack the race on power. From there on, it's by opportunity.
The final lap will take a whole different way towards the finish, it's the one used in the last few years with narrow rolling roads, they are ideal to keep a gap and can also do really well to attack. The riders will get in the final kilometer and deal with the longing final straight where a sprint usually decides the race, but easily we can see a solo move succeed.
The Weather
Slight breeze from the north. It shouldn't make much of a difference honestly, if anything it can demotivate attacks after that final climb in those narrow roads from the Bemelerberg to the finish.
The ones who have to attack
Will this circuit be more favourable for attacks? That's a good question, personally I think not, there is no brutal climb in it and although the Cauberg is no laughing matter it's a very short effort coming from a descent and with a long flat drag afterwards, those looking to attack to win can essentially spend only one bullet and they have to make it work. Fight for positioning on the bottom of all climbs will always take time on offensive moves and all of the climbs are big ring efforts with modest flat sections inbetween for organization and/or rest. But obviously this does not mean the race will be any less attacked, several teams absolutely have to do so to get success tomorrow and there are several big contenders from it.
The two main teams are, firstly Deceuninck who come in with world champion Julian Alaphilippe who has surprisingly never won this race, tomorrow is a new opportunity as he'll be looking to attack but he won't be the Belgian team's sole card as the team brings a very wide block capable of creating chaos in the race and then Mauri Vansevenant as a very dangerous wildcard too. The other is Ineos who come in with Brabantse Pijl winner Tom Pidcock, the British is finally showing stellar form and just in time for what should be his main goals of the season in the Ardennes. Tomorrow is perhaps not the best chance he's got to take a win but his confidence must be sky high and the team comes in full of talent with Dylan van Baarle a rouleur in great form, and two climbers who are also riding strong in Eddie Dunbar and Richard Carapaz.
Outside of them there will be some more dangerous teams that will be more focused on their climbers/puncheurs like Groupama who come with Valentin Madouas leading in and having David Gaudu also as a really interesting rider, not having a suited classic for him but can be a big card for the French team, Cofidis who have Guillaume Martin coming in as their leader, Movistar who should have Alejandro Valverde as their leader but tomorrow can very well be a free ride day for Gonzalo Serrano and Ivan Cortina, UAE who have Marc Hirschi still looking to get his best form but nevertheless worthy of a mention here, he'll have Matteo Trentin and Rui Costa who can surprise and be up there in front, Soren Kragh Andersen and Tiesj Benoot who after leading DSM in the cobbled classics will also have that role here, Tim Wellens will be leading Lotto Soudal, Warren Barguil who's been showing great form and has the lead of Arkea on his hands, Qhubeka who have Simon Clarke and Michael Gogl and also Bora who have plenty cards in Ide Schelling and Max Schachmann (who hasn't looked in the sharpest form) who will be the team's best options, who will see Wilco Kelderman also as a wildcard back from what was another bad crash in Itzulia.
Furthermore you've got Bahrain and Astana who have plenty cards but perhaps on their sprinter/puncheur they've got their best card. In the first one you've got Sonny Colbrelli who's been riding really well lately and should have a nice protected role as the team bring in Dylan Teuns who should have green card as he's got brilliant legs currently, but also Wout Poels, Matej Mohoric, Gino Mader and Jack Haig who are capable of doing very good work here. And in Astana the scenario is the same as Alex Aranburu perhaps is the safest option for a result in the team seeing how strong he's been riding, but the team do have cards in Jakob Fuglsang, Omar Fraile and Alexey Lutsenko.
Those who will like a more controlled affair
The team to beat though should be Jumbo. They don't run away from responsability, Wout van Aert is the man to beat and they know it, but luckily for them they have quite a strong team to protect him and cover the moves as both Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard are coming in from a blasting Itzulia. The Belgian is a very strong sprinter and he will be very hard to distance on the climbs too, Jumbo will have the pressure but he may find some allies in other teams who have fast men looking to keep it tight like BikeExchange who have a great deal of motivation to keep it together for Michael Matthews.
Besides those two they can perhaps get some help of other teams if they too have their men on a great day with great confidence like Israel who have Daryl Impey and Patrick Bevin who have a strong finish but above all a great deal of experience and quality in the hilly races, EF who've got Magnus Cort Nielsen who's well... Danish... so he's automatically a main favourite! Having Sergio Higuita too is a good card for them, you have also AG2R with a very mixed team but with a block led by Greg van Avermaet, Aurelien Paret-Peintre and Clement Venturini they surely want a more bunched up finish as they've got fast men, never forgetting Dorian Godon aswell, and finally Intermarche who've got a very interesting wildcard in Quinten Hermans.
Prediction Time
⭐ Vansevenant, van Baarle, Madouas, Valverde, Hirschi, Schelling, Schachmann, Teuns, Fuglsang, Bevin, Q.Hermans, Higuita, Cort, GV.Avermaet, Paret-Peintre
I think Wout van Aert wins, think the new circuit will be better for him as the race won't be as hard to control, but most importantly with a motivated Roglic and Vingegaard Jumbo can both cover moves and also work for the Belgian if necessary, who himself climbs well enough to handle the attacks that will come.
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