Rúben Silva
May 6, 202113 min
Pink Jersey
Egan Bernal & Pavel Sivakov
A very interesting duo coming in with the rider rated as the man to beat by the bookies. Egan Bernal is the 2019 Tour de France winner and last year as he was on his attempt to defend it his back gave in and he had to abandon the race. That is the main point for Ineos in this race, a lot of work was put in during the off-season to finish this issue and Egan did indeed show great signs of recovery including a podium spot in Strade Bianche, but a crack up the Prati di Tivo climb in Tirreno showed that there's a possibility those issues are yet to be solves. 21 days won't be easy to manage, but if the Colombian manages to get through them without a big mishap he will be very satisfied with the route presented. In theory he is the sole leader but Pavel Sivakov is obviously coming in as a protected card, firstly because the team can afford to protect two riders, secondly because the Russian is a brilliant climber on the rise and he may benefit greatly from being in the shadow. The team, despite not bringing in many of it's top climbers, is still of immense quality as Daniel Martinez is set to be their main card to assist in the mountains, the presence of man-in-form Gianni Moscon, Jonathan Castroviejo and the Italian locomotive Filippo Ganna should be enough to control or attack the race effectively, depending on what they go for.
Simon Yates
Funnily enough, the other main favourite to this race is an equally untrustworthy rider if you ask for my honest opinion. Simon Yates is no stranger to the big stage, the 2018 Vuelta winner has shown he's got the legs and the head to win a Grand Tour, but despite being his passion his last attempts at the Giro have always had a mishap that wrecked it. The British was close to winning it in 2018 where he dominated a large portion of the race, in 2019 he couldn't find his top form but went on to shine at the Tour and last year as he was looking like the main favourite once again he had to abandon because of a Covid infection. 4th time now that he's setting foot in the Grande Partenza with ambitions to take this race home, and honestly he may very well. Something always seems to get in the way, but after a seemingly easy win in the Tour of the Alps he's coming in confident and with form to battle for another one and his support comes in the form of experience as Mikel Nieve and Tanel Kangert will look to get his back in the high mountains, whilst Nick Schultz is expected to be there in the first half with him and with the hilly stages in hand he may be able to win one.
João Almeida & Remco Evenepoel
Representing Deceuninck you have, well you have in theory a whole plethora of riders who can lead the team based on recent performances. And whilst last year the Belgian team didn't bring a top team to Italy they managed to be one of the best and most consistent throughout the race, and I expect the same this year as James Knox, Mikkel Honoré and Rémi Cavagna will be the main cards to support (and possibly go for stages). On the helm you have João Almeida, Grand Tour debutant last year he finished fourth in an incredibly consistent Giro, having lead it for two weeks and having no crack from start to finish. Despite being just 22 he's a set GT rider and he will be a fan of a race full of mountains in the final week, he's gotten important experience last year, but he may also have good freedom as I believe most of their rivals will be focusing on Remco Evenepoel who's debuting in Grand Tours after his serious crash in Lombardia last year. He hasn't raced since, there's no knowing how is form is but his talent should make that almost irrelevant at some point. The youngster is coming in for experience no doubt, but he won't be given freedom surely as no-one knows how deep he can go into the race and he's perhaps the biggest wildcard in the race. Adding to that Fausto Masnada has just finished 3rd in Romandie, he was consistent and strong last year and he's also a card to play in the GC, Deceuninck have some serious depth.
Hugh Carthy
Big Hugh had often shown is potential as a Grand Tour contender but only in the Vuelta last year did he string it together and he managed to get himself on the podium of the race. With that said he is surely coming with similar ambitions, he can realistically win here, the race suits him really well with a bunch of steep summit finishes on hand, that he has the legs for it I don't think anyone doubts as he's looked good recently in the Alps. Ruben Guerreiro should have a free card for a while, Simon Carr should be his main support, I don't know if they will be able to get over the big mountains where that support will matter the most, the team is coming in with breakaway opportunists.
Mikel Landa
Landismo is well alive and I have to say this year I am confident Landa is capable of finishing on the podium. Time-trials are his obstacle and normally, too big of an obstacle, but this year the Giro is made for the climbers with the TT's bookending the race and set to make smaller differences than normal. There are several brutal mountain stages where, if he shows the legs he has been so far this season, he should be in the leading group constantly and I expect him to be able to do more than that, as he needs to attack but also as he's a fan of brutal mountains in the final week. Landa isn't Bahrain's only card though, although the team has said to be all-in for him which is a good sign of unity, they can't shy away from secondary cards they have in Pello Bilbao and Damiano Caruso. Bilbao has looked really good this season, he's weirdly one of the pro riders that doesn't seem to feel fatigue like normal people, still he has raced non-stop since March and has done no altitude training since, so I doubt his focus was on the Giro the whole time, and Damiano Caruso himself is a decent Top10 contender who's always consistent and has freedom to go on the attack.
Alexander Vlasov
His debut last year was cut right at the start as he abandoned early on with stomach problems. He rode the Vuelta and finished 11th but it's a very deceiving result, as the opening day derailed his GC, but then he consistently rode with the best throughout the 3 weeks including a runner-up spot in the Angliru. He's not a perfectly set Grand Tour contender, but he is coming in as one of the main favourites and he is an incredibly climber with a big engine. His support team have a lot of experience, the Kazakh team should be stage hunting as normal, I believe placing riders in breakaways will be of profit for the Russian as they won't likely be working in the peloton.
Emanuel Buchmann
Leading Bora you have Emanuel Buchmann. Until 2019 he was one of the rising Grand Tour contenders, being consistent in every field and having finished 4th at the Tour. Injury blew over his GT goals last year, but it also means he comes into this Giro without a lot of pressure or expectation from his rivals, yet having the legs to do something big. The German hasn't had great results this season yet but his goal is starting now, he's got Matteo Fabro and Felix Grossschartner who themselves can possibly have a goal in the back of their head, the Bora team is as always very diverse and can target a multitude of stages and classifications.
Jai Hindley & Romain Bardet
Two big wildcards for the race. On one side you have Jai Hindley, he entered last year as a domestique for Wilco Kelderman, and he rode most of the Giro like that until the final couple of mountain stages where it became evident that his climbing prowess was superior. Hindley entered the final time-trial in the lead, he eventually lost it but a runner-up place was still a massive surprise and that was based on his huge climbing performances, specially on the longer mountains. Can he repeat it? Can he improve it? His run-up to the race has been very hidden, but so was last year's, the time-trialing won't be intense and he has a very suited route. On the other side we have Romain Bardet, his best Grand Tour performances had looked in the past until he was flying at the Tour last year, until his crash... he abandoned, I love Romain and I hope he has those legs again, he's actually debuting in the Giro so it's a new chapter in his career but I always assumed Italian racing is much more suited to him, with rough weather, steep climbs and weird profiles suiting him better than the usually controlled and paced French racing. Their support isn't tremendous, but DSM is a talent factory and we never know what may pop from it.
Vincenzo Nibali & Bauke Mollema & Giulio Ciccone
Trek have gone with a different plan this season. We shouldn't see anyone targeting the GC at the Tour, and their big climbers are all coming here with big ambitions in hand. Well big ambitions... adjacent. Vincenzo Nibali commented that he trained too much and raced too little before the Giro last year, he was looking to fix that this year but a crash some weeks ago almost derailed his presence at the race. Unfortunately that may have taken a bit of a toll on his form, I would love to see his absolute best as he is coming in for a race that suits him so well as he's the kind of 3rd week specialist, and certainly one who can thrive in the colossal mountains. He will be in for the GC, I suspect so will Giulio Ciccone as a wildcard and likely Bauke Mollema will be on stage hunting duty from what I've read, the Duchman can do really well in the overall if he sets his mind to it and suffers no big mishaps, but that's to be seen during the race. They won't have the responsability to work, and they can support themselves, the presence of an in-form Brambilla will surely add some more firepower onto the squad in the climbs though.
Daniel Martin
Daniel Martin is another rider that I had assumed was past his peak, although he had never 100% focused on the Grand Tours his best result came last year in the Vuelta, it was a brilliant and consistent performance that came to me as a big surprise, including a stage win in a summit finish. He's recently said he's feeling stronger than ever physically and psychologically and that speaks a lot, his team won't be able to support him like others but he'll find wheels to follow at most times and in theory he won't be one of the riders being pressured into working. How he'll fare with the massive mountain stages I don't know, but the route is certainly good for him with the time-trials set to not have a big impact.
George Bennett
It had been meant to happen previously but George Bennett is having his leadership role in the Giro. Jumbo-Visma is one of the strongest teams at the moment, but as they're focusing on the Tour it gave some freedom for the other Grand Tours and whilst the team will be eyeing Dylan Groenewegen's sprinting ambitions, the Kiwi is leading the overall tilt and will be an interesting rider to follow. He hasn't often been in a leading spot, but when he's in form he's a brilliant climber, and he counts on Tobias Foss as strong support and possibly a duo targeting the GC.
Marc Soler
Finally you have Marc Soler who is leading Movistar. He's finished the 2019 Vuelta in the Top10, he's not a very consistent rider but is a quality one, a very decent climber, strong time-trialist and one who thrives in the rough weather. Given the chance and having no mishaps he can do really well, I hope, his recent performance in Romandie has surely put him in the right place mentally for it, and he may finally show his true potential in Italy, supported by a strong team stacked with climbers, with youngster Matteo Jorgenson and Antonio Pedrero as GC wildcards and on paper all these (actually most of the team) can be in the fight for the KOM classification.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ S.Yates, Bernal
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Almeida, Vlasov, Carthy, Landa
⭐⭐⭐ Evenepoel, Hindley, Sivakov, Buchmann, D.Martin
⭐ Bilbao, Martinez, Bardet, Ciccone, Mollema, Masnada, Caruso, Pozzovivo, Vanhoucke
I'm going with Simon Yates. I think last year I did the same, he is coming into the Giro again after winning a stage-race with confidence. He likes it here, the climbs suit him and he will finally get his much deserved Giro win.
Ciclamino Jersey
Peter Sagan
Peter Sagan had Covid in February and, after some years with a general lack of wins, it wasn't looking good for him when he returned to racing and had seemed to loose his climbing abilities. His solo win last year was amazing, I want to believe it sparked his passion a little bit more and brings in that fire that he's always seemed to have, even when he constantly racked up quality wins. However a strong Milano-Sanremo, a win in Catalunya, a win in Romandie and a strong climbing performance seems to support the theory that he's having good form back. I hope that is the case indeed, he's coming in as the man to beat for the points classification and will like the amount of hilly stages, although some of those are sure to be taken by breakaways. He doesn't bring in a strong leadout, but he never really does, he's got Maciej Bodnar and loyal lieutenant Daniel Oss so he's set to be there in front in the sprints.
Giacomo Nizzolo
He's twice won the points classification at the Giro and he's coming in as one of the favourites for another one. Last year his game was improved, and the Italian champion is coming in after a strong set of results that includes some strong hilly races which will surely help his goal of racking up the points where he needs. Qhubeka has a team focused in him, as Max Walscheid, Victor Campenaerts and Lukasz Wisniowski will form the essential part of his leadout.
Dylan Groenewegen
Back after several months of suspension and injury, Groenewegen was a surprise addition to the Giro lineup and if all goes properly he should be the main man in the sprints alongside Caleb Ewan. The lack of racing may be felt at first, but he's got youngster David Dekker as a brilliant piece of leadout and will love those pan-flat stages the race has thrown up.
Caleb Ewan
Caleb Ewan. For the points classification he's not a big favourite, but in the sprints surely he is set to take at least one, Lotto is a team with a great focus on his performance and the Aussie has his leadout men here in Roger Kluge and Jasper de Buyst. Furthermore, Stefano Oldani is set to be an important piece, that may have the Belgian team looking to control positioning more instead of following the wheels, as the rest of the team should be eyeing stages and possibly the GC with Harm Vanhoucke.
Fernando Gaviria
Leading UAE's leadout is Fernando Gaviria. Since he left Deceuninck he hasn't been consistent, but at times he shows evidence that his max power is still there. The team will be focused on the GC possibly but above all stage wins, the Colombian hasn't come with a full team behind him but he does have the two most important pieces in Max Richeze and Juan Sebastian Molano who should be capable of putting him in good position even in the most chaotic sprints.
Tim Merlier
The Belgian team is racing it's first ever Grand Tour and coming with big ambitions already. Tim Merlier is the spearhead as he looks to take home a stage win, the pan-flat stages will be his main targets and Alpecin have a very proper leadout having it's presence in the Belgian races constantly, the team will also be eyeing stages and Gianni Vermeersch is for me someone who can really surprise in the opening week.
Climbers, puncheurs, etc
Of course, this is the Giro, and although the points classification falls for the sprinters the amount of hard stages on route, the hilly ones that will also fall for the breakaways, and the DNF's we'll see in the sprinter field will see climbers and puncheurs come close to the top on this classification. Fast finishers like Simon Yates, Egan Bernal, João Almeida can be up there, and puncheurs like Diego Ulissi, Andrea Vendrame, Quinten Hermans, Patrick Bevin who can make their way up there, of course not forgetting some more sprinters I haven't devoted a paragraph like Elia Viviani or Matteo Moschetti.
⭐ Groenewegen, Gaviria, Merlier, S.Yates, Almeida, Ulissi
Cat.A/B (Stages 2,5,7,10,13,18)
Finish - 50-35-25-18-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
IS - 20-12-8-6-4-3-2-1
Cat.C (Stages 3,4,6,8,12,15)
Finish - 25,18,12,8,6,5,4,3,2,1
IS - 10,6,3,2,1
Cat.D/E (Stages 1,9,11,14,16,17,19,20,21)
Finish - 15,12,9,7,6,5,4,3,2,1
IS - 12,8,6,5,4,3,2,1
I'm going with Peter Sagan for this one. I think it's no surprising take, I don't think his sprinting is enough to win the big ones, but he will always be there, and furthermore he looks capable of going through some hilly stages, and he will be in breakaways surely, and has the legs to go through the brutal mountains and come out on the other side.
Blue Jersey
This is always a messy segment, hence why I don't name riders anymore specifically because it's quite normal to have some GC contenders to have a crash or fall out of GC contention and then refocus, there are others who just find themselves in a breakaway and almost randomly get themselves within the fight, and of course only after the first week do we start to see who's truly focusing on that classification.
Important is to have good legs in the second and third week, choose your days correctly and likely it's quite important to have a rider or two specifically in support of that goal.
⭐⭐⭐ Bilbao, Fabbro, Guerreiro, Molard, Pedrero, Mollema, Brambilla, Formolo
⭐⭐ Bernal, Bouchard, Landa, Grossschartner, Carr, Reichenbach, S.Yates, Bardet, Ciccone
⭐ Sivakov, Martinez, Champoussin, Cepeda, Vlasov, G.Izagirre, Caruso, Visconti, Buchmann, Edet, Masnada, Carthy, Hirt, Taaramae, D.Martin, De Marchi, Foss, De Gendt, Goossens, Jorgenson, Cataldo, Nieve, Roche, Conti, Ulissi
Cima Coppi (Passo Pordoi) - 50,30,20,14,10,6,4,2,1
1st - 40,18,12,9,6,4,2,1
2nd - 18,8,6,4,2,1
3rd - 9,4,2,1
4th - 3,2,1
Were you expecting a massive list? You've got it, and I'm sure some more names can join in the list easily. My call is for Matteo Fabro, brilliant pure climber who is yet to capitalize on his potential in a Grand Tour, time for him to step forward.
White Jersey
Here the subject is regarding some riders that I've already talked previously. It's not going to be easy, somehow most of the GC contenders are available for this jersey, it'll be a big fight and we may see a race within a race like Lopez vs Carapaz in 2018, that would be quite awesome I will admit.
⭐⭐ Sivakov, Almeida, Vlasov, Hindley
⭐ Evenepoel, Vanhoucke
As for the youth jersey I expect Egan Bernal to take it. Easily someone else may take over as the competition is hard, but I'm hoping the Colombian can handle the race.
Route Preview: https://echelons.wixsite.com/website/post/giro-d-italia-route-preview-2
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