It was an exciting stage with a predictable finish. It does seem like, despite being his first race of the year, it's Primoz Roglic against everyone else. The Slovenian was always in position and in the final climb attacked by surprise right before the IS, easily dispatching everyone and riding solo to the finish, winning with 12 seconds over Max Schachmann and Guillaume Martin, taking also the yellow jersey.
Positive: Roglic was already in a dominating position, now even more. Behind the gaps weren't big, no big surprises except for maybe Quentin Pacher finishing in the Top10.
Negative: Teuns and Grossschartner were expected to have a good day today but were the opposite, Tao Hart has crashed out of the race giving continuation to Ineos' bad luck.
The Route
After a couple of very important days GC-wise tomorrow will be the last opportunity for the sprinters to show what they came here to do. This time down the Rhône, the stage will be an almost North-South line through the intracontinental rift valley, it's an almost completely flat day with a couple of bumps near the finish. The Côte de Saint-Restitut will be ridden with 34Km to go and then the IS in Debroux features another small ascent, but one that shouldn't cause many issues to the fast men. The descent into Mondragon though features a very technical zone with around 10Km to go so it is expected that there is an intense fight for positioning both from the main GC teams and the sprinter teams.
If they make it through though, they'll be fine. The final straight is as strong as it could be, a whole 8.5 kilometers without a single turn, and with a very wide finish.
The Weather
There will be a breeze from the south, not good for any breakaway attempts as they'll have a headwind most of the day, it will get more intense throughout the afternoon and right after the final descent it's a constant tailwind to the finish.
The Favourites
It's going to be a bunch sprint for sure, despite some tricky sections close to the finish surely nothing will come from them as everyone will fight to be in the very front and there is enough space to reorganize in the final kilometers. Like stage 2 it's a sprint suited for the heavyweight sprinters, not because of a slight descent but this time because of the wind, higher speeds and a little less importance for aerodynamics. So there are several riders that will like it, Sam Bennett obviously should be the man to beat seeing how consistent and powerful he has been but he has got several riders that with the right tactics can snatch that win. Arnaud Démare is the first example having finished second in the opening stage and having a brilliant leadout, but the same is found in stage 2 winner Cees Bol (who can win again as long as he rides up to the final meters well) and also Mads Pedersen who's got really good men working for him in Trek.
These are the main favourites, but a win can come from an outsider and there's lots of them, some will like the finish like Pascal Ackermann who can usually get up to speed (but sometimes struggles to keep it), tomorrow will be his last chance to get a win though so it may be extra motivation for him and for men like Alexander Kristoff and Phil Bauhaus who can also perform really well and be favoured by a longer fast sprint.
The list then extends, these can surely be there but need brilliant positioning and tactics to be up on the podium like former leader Michael Matthews and Kaden Groves who will be up there for BikeExchange, Jasper Philipsen for Alpecin who's finished strong in the opening stage alongside Bryan Coquard, there is Giacomo Nizzolo who hasn't performed to the expected yet but is a rider used to winning big, Christophe Laporte one of the men in big form, his French rival Nacer Bouhanni will also be eyeing it like Rudy Barbier who should be Israel's option, although Andre Greipel may also be there.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kristoff, Bauhaus, Ackermann, Philipsen, Nizzolo, Bouhanni, Barbier, Laporte
Yes, this again. Sam Bennett is the man to beat let's face it, maybe not the most exciting aproach but the most effective, think he will take revenge and get back to the wins.
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