Rúben Silva
Sep 30, 20207 min
First Week
The race begins with it's newly created start in Sicily. After Hungary was no longer in option the re-routing means gaps will surge highly in the first week, this starting time-trial finishing in Palermo is quite unusual with a small uphill start and a mostly descending and fast approach to the finish after 15.1 kilometers.
Stage 2 is already a harsh start to the race. The GC riders will try to keep it as safe as possible with an important finish on the next day, but they can actually make an appearance in the bonifications as the small hilltop finish in Agrigento will favour the puncheurs and explosive climbers.
On the third day we quickly move onto the high mountains. Etna, of course, it's a regular appearance in the Giro but is being tackled by a non-traditional yet quite hard side with 19Km of climbing before the finish. Gaps will appear, fragilities will be exposed as the hardest kilometers are by the top, the race is very long but it is quite important to come into the race sharp as this is a real summit finish where some of the riders targeting the overall can loose minutes.
Stage 4 is the final day in Sicily, and a really interesting one! Looking at the profile it's quite simple, flat/climb/descent/flat, however a profile like this is quite unusual in a Grand Tour, it's a stage that should fall for the sprinters although the climb halfway through the day could make for meaningful accelerations that can drop sprinters. Besides it can be a good breakaway day it will depend on who picks up the responsabilities in the peloton.
Stage 5 is the begining of the race in mainland Italy through the Calabria region and what a brute it is. It may not look like it for some but there's 4700 meters of climbing on this day, there's 225 kilometers and quite a long climb that summits near the finish Valico di Montescuro, 23 kilometers in lenght and an average of 6% is a true mountain on the end of a hard stage. So early on the race after a time-trial, two hilly stages and Etna, this is another day that can make big damage in the GC riders.
Stage 6 is another stage for the sprinters but not the pure ones. It's quite hilly in the finish close to Matera with a 3rd category in the final third of the stage, but the finish also presents a hard rise into the finish that makes it a punchy sprinter/puncheur combination to take a win.
Stage 7 is finally an opportunity to rest, a short and pan-flat stage, the first opportunity for the pure sprinters and a day that should be enjoyed by much.
Stage 8 is a breakaway day for sure, a pan-flat start but a hilly second half, a lot of rolling terrain and small climbs will make the difference no matter who is discussing the stage.
Stage 9 wraps off the hard first week of racing. It's the racing day deep into the Appenines with a finish in Roccaraso. Again, over 4500 meters of climbing, it doesn't look like a day that at first sight can create chaos in the peloton but it's quite a rough stage, the final half of the stage and a bit more are either up or down including Passo Lanciano before a series of climb leading to the inconsistent summit finish in Roccaraso.
Second Week
The second week begins with a trecherous stage still in the Appenines, the finish in Tortoreto should have an exciting result as the day has a hard sequence of short but steep hilltops that can see some attacks, it's a day either for a breakaway or the explosive stage-hunters, the GC riders will need to stay on their toes though not to make a slip.
Stage 11 finishes in Rimini and is one for the sprinters.
Stage 12 is a continuation of the hilly stages that have a lot of possible outcomes. This one should be favoured by the breakaway specialists, it's quite a hard day to work and chase back in the peloton but the hardest climbs come halfway through the stage. It's a bit of a rollercoaster ride, lots of ups-and-downs into Cesenatico.
Stage 13 is another stage designed with a big mix of possibilities that can decide the stage. It can fall for a breakaway as not many teams will want to push in those final kilometers, but at the same time most of the day is as flat as a Dutch road and should be quite easy to chase and prevent a breakaway from taking the glory from the day. In the final climbs things will be quite open and it can either be a small sprint finish or a small group getting away in the end for the win.
In 2015 Alberto Contador had an essencial day in Valdobbiadene in order to win his final Grand Tour. It's not as important this year it's a much shorter day, but the 34 kilometer individual challenge will be a very important day. It isn't a flat one though it's quite hilly and includes the short but very steep Muro Di Ca' Del Poggio very early on.
The closure to the final week comes with the arrival of the Alps into the race. They come late but they come strong, the stage has some hard climbs halfway through but the decisive moments should come in the summit finish to Piancavallo, where Tom Dumoulin almost lost the 2017 Giro.
Third Week
The final week of racing begins with such a great stage in my opinion. Usually the hilly stages and traps come early in the race but the Giro has taken a different approach and have put an explosive and tricky stage in the final week and also right after the rest day. A lot can happen here, firstly it can either be a breakaway or GC day, but either ways there can be important moves in the final circuit that is ridden three times with a climb to the Monte di Ragogna, a 3Km ascent at 9% before a short but steep finish in San Daniele del Friuli.
Stage 17 is a brutal Alpine day, the first of 3 with several hard climbs, here the damage should be done on the final ascent to Madonna di Campiglio but for sure most will get there with a lot of fatigue after having to climb the brutal Forcella Valbona and Monte Bondone, and also the Passo Durone. There's over 5600 meters of climbing on this day, with such a hard day in 24 hours it's unsure how open to risks the GC riders will be, but the truth is it's an unreal day after 3 weeks of non-stop hard racing.
18th stage is for me the queen stage. Of course, this is a Giro with so many very important days that in all honesty it feels bad to call it queen stage but it's where everything is combined to have race-changing gaps. On this day there's 0 room for mistake, riders may loose time on the opening week, it's a necessary sacrifice in order to be at their very best in here. After starting the day with a hard combination of the Campo Carlo Magno and the Passo Castrin, there's 5800 meters of climbing on this day, after these climbs there's a long valley run into the base of the Stelvio which will be ridden via it's hardest side of 25Km at over 7% finishing on the infamous altitude of the mountain, but still after all that there will be a descent into Bormio before the final climb into the Laghi di Cancano, a beautiful climb full of hairpins that will climb a worthy winner on this day.
This should be a transition day, a final opportunity for the sprinters and a chance for the GC riders to recover however it's quite hard to imagine so as there are 252 kilometers on the menu. It's a very flat day luckily, but by no means easy and the sprinters are free to abandon after this day if they want.
The final stage. Day 20 of the race and the final opportunity for the climbers. From 170 meters into 2733 with no descending. The Agnello has been an important part of the Giro and the Tour and with good reason, it's a mythical colossal mountain, it's very long, the final 9Km are at 9% so it's really steep, it comes of the back of 3 weeks of destructive racing and is a place that the weather can affect heavily, as we saw in the 2016 Giro. This is already enough for a brutal day but after the riders will go up the Col d'Izoard via it's hardest side, and then the riders will leave their short stay in France in the Montgenèvre climb before the final climb into Sestriere with it's 11.5Km at 6%.
The race finishes with a small time-trial in Milano. With such small distance it shouldn't be an important day after such a brutal race, but it's a stage that is there to be won and should be a nice spectacle to wrap off the race.
Stage Importance
⭐ 6, 7, 8, 11, 19
Now I have to make this very clear. These rating are not comparable to the Tour, this is a completely different race and every star here would mean n+1 stars in a Tour. It's a Grand Tour, a climber's GT, it's incredibly hard, there are several stages with more than 4000 meters of climbing spread throughout the race, there are two very hard mountain stages in the first 5 days of the race, it has 3 time-trials one of them is really hard, a lot of tricky stages and even some of those meant for sprinters have quite a hilly side to it which will all add up in the end of 3 weeks and that final sequence of climbing in the Alps is just insane.
3 stages with over 5000 meters of climbing, two of them are at risk at a point because they go up above 2700 meters of altitude, there's long mountain slogs at altitude, there are explosive punchy stages and very early serious GC challenges. Wether you agree with me or not on these ratings you have to agree that whoever wins this Giro is a true champion!
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